# Vinay Gupta: his works and how they connect (part 5 of 9, 2010 to 2012)

> Every work in his career record (175), by year, with what it is, the thread it belongs to, what it came from and led to and why, and the sources in the archive about it. Part 5 of 9, 2010 to 2012; continues in https://guptaoption.com/texts/works-6.md. Vinay Gupta, exponential humanitarian. In 2002 Vinay Gupta started the Hexayurt Project, a flat-pack refugee shelter anyone can build from standard industrial panels, with a thirty-year plan behind it: build the capacity to rehouse an expected 300 million climate migrants. Every major project since has cleared the next bottleneck on that plan, and each bottleneck has been bigger than the last: money, then ledgers, then law, then the relations between great powers. Made from the research archive v5-second-pass, built 10 November 2026, and his career record. The map of the whole archive is https://guptaoption.com/llms.txt; source ids such as [250] are at https://guptaoption.com/texts/250.md.

### The New Economy: out of money, out of time, but not out of ideas (2010)

- Economics of resources; argument; specified; work id new-economy; https://files.howtolivewiki.com/in_a_page/the_new_economy.pdf
- What: One-page paper: the richest fifth are eating the planet, so the next economy has to be at peace with other people and with the planet.
- Summary: One of the "In a Page" papers. "Sixty million people, 1% of the human population, die every year", around a third of them early because they are poor. Of three outlets for aggression, against other species, other humans and the unknown, only the last depletes nothing. The new economy is anything with clean inputs and non-destructive outputs. It closes: "with the exception of cheap renewable electricity, you will be poorer in an economy which is not based on plunder. But we will all be richer, together."
- Threads: RMI to spiral
- Came from Leashless (2009): an economy not based on plunder. Evidence (implied by the later work): Leashless (PDF), p. 7 (2009) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/leashless_manifesto.pdf; The New Economy (In a Page) (2010) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/in_a_page/the_new_economy.pdf
- Led to Plausible Utopias (2012): abundance breaks the financial system. Evidence (implied by the later work): The New Economy (In a Page) (2010) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/in_a_page/the_new_economy.pdf; Plausible Utopias (Meaning 2012 slides) (2012) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/Vinay%20Gupta%20meaning%20slides%20FINAL.pdf
- Sources (110, by hand first, then by importance): [828](https://guptaoption.com/texts/828.md) The New Economy: out of money, out of time, but not out... (2010); [91](https://guptaoption.com/texts/91.md) The imperialists of the future are imperialists of the... (2010); [148](https://guptaoption.com/texts/148.md) Mother of Hydrogen (2012); [108](https://guptaoption.com/texts/108.md) User:Vinay Gupta/The Unplugged (2006); [250](https://guptaoption.com/texts/250.md) Through the Looking Glass - Vinay Gupta on systemic... (2010); [753](https://guptaoption.com/texts/753.md) (OHM2013) One network one world designing for a 7 plus... (2013); [128](https://guptaoption.com/texts/128.md) Black Elephants & Skull Jackets: A Conversation with... (2010); [823](https://guptaoption.com/texts/823.md) Plausible Utopias (2012); [239](https://guptaoption.com/texts/239.md) The Future of Stuff (2020); [252](https://guptaoption.com/texts/252.md) Vinay Gupta / Mattereum Manifesto keynote at the London... (2019); [752](https://guptaoption.com/texts/752.md) Vinay Gupta: The Cities That Will Walk Away (2019); [724](https://guptaoption.com/texts/724.md) Roundtable Discussion with Vinay Gupta and Bryan... (2024); ...

### The Private Humanitarian Company (2010)

- Economics of resources; idea; specified; work id private-humanitarian-company; https://files.howtolivewiki.com/in_a_page/The_Private_Humanitarian_Company.pdf
- What: One-page sketch of a company modeled on private military companies, using operations and logistics talent to deliver essential services in disasters.
- Summary: London, 4 November 2010. Humanitarian aid is in crisis because proven innovations deploy too slowly: "Over $10 billion was raised for relief and reconstruction in Haiti", yet nearly a year after the earthquake most of those made homeless still were. The tools exist, from biosand filters and solar water disinfection to the hexayurt and the cell phone. Private military companies supply force to clients who lack it; a private humanitarian company would supply essential services and supply chains, hired by governments and charity consortiums as an integrated package, staffed in part by veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan. "Some project 150 million climate refugees by 2050."
- Threads: social enterprise
- Came from Three Rules for Designing the Social Enterprise (2009): a social enterprise for aid
- Came from Hope for the World (2009): relief and development as one problem, then a company to deliver it. Evidence (implied by the later work): Hope for the World slides (Sweden presentation) (2009) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/hope_for_the_world/; The Private Humanitarian Company (2010-11-04) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/in_a_page/The_Private_Humanitarian_Company.pdf
- Sources (9, by hand first, then by importance): [827](https://guptaoption.com/texts/827.md) The Private Humanitarian Company (2010); [270](https://guptaoption.com/texts/270.md) Hope For The World (2017); [710](https://guptaoption.com/texts/710.md) TEDxEWB - Vinay Gupta - Enabling Humanitarian Innovation (2010); [8](https://guptaoption.com/texts/8.md) Municipal Administration of Cities in Crisis (2013); [267](https://guptaoption.com/texts/267.md) The future of humanitarian innovation (2017); [145](https://guptaoption.com/texts/145.md) Sweden Presentation; [137](https://guptaoption.com/texts/137.md) STAR-TIDES (2007); [331](https://guptaoption.com/texts/331.md) STAR-TIDES Talk at FAHUM 08 (2012); [13](https://guptaoption.com/texts/13.md) Hexayurt Country (2010)

### The Tiny Army (2010)

- Writing and inner practice; specified; work id tiny-army; https://www.appropedia.org/The_Future_We_Deserve/The_Tiny_Army_-_Vinay_Gupta
- What: Short story about a seven-person army.
- Summary: Short fiction in The Future We Deserve. A seven-person army and a humanitarian pandemic organism. Collected with the essays; it is the fiction piece in that book.
- Threads: fiction draws on
- Led to The Future We Deserve (2012): collected in the book. Evidence (he says so): Appropedia: The Future We Deserve/The Tiny Army - Vinay Gupta (2010) https://www.appropedia.org/The_Future_We_Deserve/The_Tiny_Army_-_Vinay_Gupta; Appropedia: The Future We Deserve, list of articles https://www.appropedia.org/The_Future_We_Deserve
- Sources (1, by hand first, then by importance): [107](https://guptaoption.com/texts/107.md) The Future We Deserve/The Tiny Army - Vinay Gupta (2010)

### Through the Looking Glass (2010)

- Crisis planning; model; specified; work id through-the-looking-glass; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jm5o-ughyD8
- What: Talk for FEASTA in Ireland on systemic risk: government is the wrong place to manage big risks, so describe each risk by scope, severity, complexity, source and odds, and map what keeps people alive with SCIM.
- Summary: Talk for FEASTA, the Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability, in Ireland, September 2010, with 175 slides. The state's failure to manage risk returns risk to us. Threat-focused groups detect, avoid and mitigate; reaction-focused groups such as the Red Cross help people recover; both are needed. Risks are described by scope, severity, complexity, source and odds, and climate change and financial collapse share deep complexity and global scope. Simple Critical Infrastructure Maps, adapted from the State in a Box method, and the Integrated Needs Analysis Matrix bridge threat and response groups. It closes on agro-industrial auto-catalysis (aiac), the loop of cheap food, energy and tools that civilization runs on, and on managing a systemic crisis without government support.
- Threads: nuclear / panflu
- Came from SCIM / INAM (2009): SCIM presented as risk mapping. Evidence (he says so): Through the Looking Glass talk 30:07 (2020-03-20) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jm5o-ughyD8&t=1807s; Through the Looking Glass promo, Ireland, 26 to 28 September 2010, 0:22 (2010-09-12) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7cYlKkTUzM&t=22s
- Came from State in a Box (2006): the State in a Box method, reused for civilian risk. Evidence (he says so): Through the Looking Glass talk 24:58 (2020-03-20) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jm5o-ughyD8&t=1498s
- Led to The Resilience Dividend (2011): point and systemic crisis, carried into a service for families. Evidence (implied by the later work): Through the Looking Glass talk 39:14 (2020-03-20) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jm5o-ughyD8&t=2354s; Through the Looking Glass talk 18:35 (2020-03-20) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jm5o-ughyD8&t=1115s
- Sources (39, by hand first, then by importance): [250](https://guptaoption.com/texts/250.md) Through the Looking Glass - Vinay Gupta on systemic... (2010); [849] Through the Looking Glass (slides) (2010) (no text here); [366](https://guptaoption.com/texts/366.md) "Through the Looking Glass" - Vinay Gupta - Ireland... (2010); [243](https://guptaoption.com/texts/243.md) Multipolar Realpolitik (Omnibus draft) (2024); [32](https://guptaoption.com/texts/32.md) Severe Panflu Response Strategies (2006); [1](https://guptaoption.com/texts/1.md) Dealing in Security.July2010.en; [8](https://guptaoption.com/texts/8.md) Municipal Administration of Cities in Crisis (2013); [681](https://guptaoption.com/texts/681.md) Pandemics and the Coronavirus Part 1 with Vinay Gupta (2020); [20](https://guptaoption.com/texts/20.md) Resilience and Opportunity: Effective Tools for Victory... (2006); [685](https://guptaoption.com/texts/685.md) Pandemics and the Coronavirus Part 2 with Vinay Gupta (2020); [2](https://guptaoption.com/texts/2.md) Of Warlords and Rodeos Why Nothing Works proofs; [372](https://guptaoption.com/texts/372.md) this is not a video about coronavirus - the hypothetical... (2008); ...

### To bite the hand that feeds: survival (2010)

- Crisis planning; specified; work id bite-the-hand; https://files.howtolivewiki.com/the_condition_of_our_condition.pdf
- What: Four-page essay: Nash equilibria lock each of us into breaking the world, so the way out is a new, enforced law for the planet.
- Summary: First draft, London, 15 August 2010. Even the most powerful individual cannot change the outcome alone; Kyoto and Copenhagen are indictments of democracy; free ourselves, then preach the new law.
- Sources (18, by hand first, then by importance): [725](https://guptaoption.com/texts/725.md) Vinay Gupta l Plausible utopias | Meaning 2012 (2012); [706](https://guptaoption.com/texts/706.md) Blockchain Beyond Bitcoin - with Vinay Gupta | Virtual... (2018); [305](https://guptaoption.com/texts/305.md) ChangeHow - rough camera video of Vinay Gupta's talk on... (2015); [54](https://guptaoption.com/texts/54.md) Framing The Collapsonomics Practice | The Bucky-Gandhi... (2009); [686](https://guptaoption.com/texts/686.md) VINAY GUPTA, Future of Europe Seminar, Nov 2012 (2013); [709](https://guptaoption.com/texts/709.md) Can blockchain solve the accountability gap? | Vinay Gupta (2017); [286](https://guptaoption.com/texts/286.md) Ouishare on global democracy and the real sharing economy (2016); [368](https://guptaoption.com/texts/368.md) Superstruct Communications Intercept 1 - DCAR (2008); [363](https://guptaoption.com/texts/363.md) Culture Control Group - Brussels Cheese Crisis Report -... (2011); [696](https://guptaoption.com/texts/696.md) Vinay Gupta - Pandemic means Death? | London Real (2014); [159](https://guptaoption.com/texts/159.md) Taming Black Elephants (2017); [863](https://guptaoption.com/texts/863.md) Vinay Gupta - Blockchain Beyond Bitcoin (2016); ...

### Why Nothing Works: identifying and quantifying the Goat Rodeo governance antipattern (2010)

- Crisis planning; model; specified; work id why-nothing-works; https://files.howtolivewiki.com/in_a_page/why_nothing_works_the_Goat_Rodeo_Index.pdf
- What: One-page paper: warlord entrepreneurs fill the gap when accountability fails, and the goat rodeo, different players with different goals, is how it fails.
- Summary: A one-page piece with a 2x2 of players against goals (cartel, competition, cooperation, goat rodeo) and the I to X Goat Rodeo scale, from a divorce to nanobio regulation. Its opening paragraph is close to the opening of the 2015 chapter Of Warlords and Rodeos.
- Threads: goat rodeo to warlords
- Came from The Goat Rodeo Index (2010): the index, written up in a page. Evidence (he says so): The Goat Rodeo Index, a persistent governance antipattern (blog) (2010-10-22) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/other/the-goat-rodeo-complexdifficult-situation-scale-2064; Why Nothing Works (In a Page PDF) (2011-06-13) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/in_a_page/why_nothing_works_the_Goat_Rodeo_Index.pdf
- Led to Warlords, Inc.: Black Markets, Broken States, and the Rise of the Warlord Entrepreneur (2015): the one-pager grows into the book chapter. Evidence (he says so): Why Nothing Works (In a Page PDF) (2011-06-13) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/in_a_page/why_nothing_works_the_Goat_Rodeo_Index.pdf; North Atlantic Books excerpt: Of Warlords and Rodeos: Why Nothing Works (archived) (2015-04-28) https://web.archive.org/web/20200516222520/https://www.northatlanticbooks.com/blog/of-warlords-and-rodeos-why-nothing-works/
- Led to The Big Deal (2011): a scale for government's limits, then the case for civil society. Evidence (implied by the later work): The Synthesis (Big Deal essay) (2011-02-05) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/bigdeal/the-synthesis-2243; Why Nothing Works (In a Page PDF) (2011-06-13) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/in_a_page/why_nothing_works_the_Goat_Rodeo_Index.pdf
- Led to The Gupta State Failure Management Archive (2011): part of the archive. Evidence (he says so): Gupta State Failure Management Archive reader's guide (Appropedia) http://www.appropedia.org/Gupta_State_Failure_Management_Archive
- Sources (3, by hand first, then by importance): [25](https://guptaoption.com/texts/25.md) The Goat Rodeo Index (2011); [88](https://guptaoption.com/texts/88.md) The Goat Rodeo Index – a persistent Governance... (2010); [194](https://guptaoption.com/texts/194.md) Of Warlords and Rodeos: Why Nothing Works - North... (2015)

### Avoid Winter War: Hexayurts and #Occupy (2011)

- Crisis planning; argument; specified; work id occupy-winter-war; http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/other/advice-for-occupy-avoid-winter-war-2881
- What: Reply to requests to supply the Occupy camps for winter: after listing the winter kit, including folding Hexayurts, it calls that tactical answer "totally wrong" and advises going home for Thanksgiving, then coming back in spring to plant.
- Summary: About 800 words, 29 October 2011. He sets out his political stance first: sympathetic, but Occupy lacks a global platform, so "this is not for me". Then the winter advice people expected: thermal underwear, layered "synergy beds", big thermos flasks, small folding corrugated plastic Hexayurts, and SCIM to run camp meetings. "But this is totally wrong. It's a tactical approach to a fundamentally strategic and political problem." Whether Stalingrad, Valley Forge or the Winter War, winter is not the friend of those in struggle. So: go home for Thanksgiving, declare victory, leave no trace, plan over the winter, and in spring take and hold land to plant wild flowers and grow food. He says Adbusters Tactical Briefing 18 was built on this piece but "misses two important points".
- Came from Hexayurt (2002): the winter kit, and why it is the wrong answer. Evidence (he says so): Avoid Winter War: Hexayurts and #Occupy (blog) (2011-10-29) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/other/advice-for-occupy-avoid-winter-war-2881
- Sources (13, by hand first, then by importance): [75](https://guptaoption.com/texts/75.md) Avoid Winter War: Hexayurts and #Occupy | The... (2011); [323](https://guptaoption.com/texts/323.md) Vinay Gupta at the Athens Hackerspace (highlights) (2012); [202](https://guptaoption.com/texts/202.md) TACTICAL BRIEFING #18 | Adbusters Culturejammer Headquarters (2011); [55](https://guptaoption.com/texts/55.md) FREE Guptastan | The Bucky-Gandhi Design Institution (2008); [67](https://guptaoption.com/texts/67.md) Rough video from my talk in Iceland | The Bucky-Gandhi... (2008); [776](https://guptaoption.com/texts/776.md) Vinay Gupta presents "Nuclear Poker" to the London... (2016); [37](https://guptaoption.com/texts/37.md) http://hexayurt.com/coat (2023); [696](https://guptaoption.com/texts/696.md) Vinay Gupta - Pandemic means Death? | London Real (2014); [71](https://guptaoption.com/texts/71.md) TIDES – the skinny! | The Bucky-Gandhi Design Institution (2007); [782](https://guptaoption.com/texts/782.md) FutureRant w/ Gabriel D Vine - Vinay Gupta TEASER (2016); [361](https://guptaoption.com/texts/361.md) Reading Hipster Hitler at the Führerbunker (2011); [234](https://guptaoption.com/texts/234.md) zenpundit.com » Blog Archive » WARLORDS, INC BOOK LAUNCH!!! (2015); ...

### Boing Boing (2011) (about him, by others)

- Press coverage; specified; work id press-boingboing-2011; https://boingboing.net/2011/10/24/tools-to-not-die-with-an-interview-with-vinay-gupta.html
- What: Boing Boing interview on the Hexayurt: Tools To Not Die With.
- Summary: Tools To Not Die With, 24 October 2011. Hexayurt interview. Farm sheet-waste origin story.
- Sources (1, by hand first, then by importance): [114](https://guptaoption.com/texts/114.md) Tools To Not Die With: An Interview with Vinay Gupta,... (2011)

### Buy a Castle: Finding Next Generation Resilience in Ireland (2011)

- Economics of resources; specified; work id buy-a-castle; https://files.howtolivewiki.com/castle/9355a9f9948fa985b84e4e369b5245f3/Finding%20Next%20Generation%20Resilience%20in%20Ireland.screen..pdf
- What: Proposal deck to buy 86 acres with Glengarriff Castle as a dense, resilient community with farming, water, power and a deep-water port.
- Summary: Land as the only stable hedge as globalization unwinds; four million euros with planning permission for castle restoration and 18 apartments.
- Sources (6, by hand first, then by importance): [754](https://guptaoption.com/texts/754.md) Vinay Gupta shares his vision of a rural future (2013); [401](https://guptaoption.com/texts/401.md) Meaning Conf Livestream 7 @meaningconf (2012); [497](https://guptaoption.com/texts/497.md) Debt vs Equity (2025); [517](https://guptaoption.com/texts/517.md) The Global Asset Pool is About to Massively Increase (2025); [592](https://guptaoption.com/texts/592.md) ‘800 Year Old Goat Hide Parchments: Real Estate ’ (2022); [351] John Barlow at the Reykjavik Digital Freedoms Conference... (2012) (no text here)

### C-WASP: Applying Lessons Learned from the War on Drugs to Win the War on Terror (2011)

- Crisis planning; specified; work id cwasp; https://files.howtolivewiki.com/CWASP.pdf
- What: Satire, co-authored with Lucy Wills: the gangs won the war on drugs, so give them air support.
- Summary: Signed Vinay Gupta and Lucy Wills, April 1, 2011 (backdated).
- Sources (1, by hand first, then by importance): [327](https://guptaoption.com/texts/327.md) Papa Bill's Stew-Stick Jam - Marmaduke Dando - Second Song (2012)

### Creation and Crisis (2011)

- Writing and inner practice; specified; work id creativity-and-crisis; https://files.howtolivewiki.com/Creativity%20and%20Crisis.pdf
- What: Talk at the Thursday Club, Goldsmiths, on how science fiction shaped his work, from Bruce Sterling's Sarvodaya technicians to Shockwave Rider.
- Summary: Goldsmiths, London, 28 September 2011. 44 slides. Opens on Sterling's Green Days in Brunei (1985), with Sarvodaya's Buddhist technicians in a story set around 2025; the next slide notes that Sarvodaya turns out to exist and built its first hexayurt the previous year.
- Sources (2, by hand first, then by importance): [704](https://guptaoption.com/texts/704.md) Vinay Gupta: Liberation, Culture, Conflict and Catastrophe (2024); [213](https://guptaoption.com/texts/213.md) Vinay | Creativity and Crisis - Vinay Gupta. 29th...

### Laziness, Impatience and Hubris (2011)

- Survival hardware; specified; work id laziness-impatience-hubris; https://files.howtolivewiki.com/laziness_impatience_and_hubris/index.html
- What: Talk at c-base, Berlin: Larry Wall's three virtues of a programmer applied to building, by a hackitect.
- Summary: Easy, fast, scalable building: 7 hexayurts and 150 square meters in two days at Burning Ice, Brussels; 40 hexayurts at Maslowtopia, Burning Man. The video runs 30 minutes, with the folding hexayurt videos from the 20-minute mark.
- Sources (15, by hand first, then by importance): [321](https://guptaoption.com/texts/321.md) Vinay Gupta talking at FreeAndReal / The Telaithrion... (2012); [364](https://guptaoption.com/texts/364.md) burning ice brussels seven minute tour (2011); [172](https://guptaoption.com/texts/172.md) vinay gupta | be you. (2014); [830](https://guptaoption.com/texts/830.md) Laziness, Impatience and Hubris: Vinay Gupta of the... (2011); [294](https://guptaoption.com/texts/294.md) Practice Safe Hex - Burning Man Hexayurt Safety Checklist! (2015); [118](https://guptaoption.com/texts/118.md) File:Hexayurt at Burning Man 2010.jpg - Wikimedia Commons (2010); [78](https://guptaoption.com/texts/78.md) Living Video and the Akvo Video Strategy | The... (2011); [374](https://guptaoption.com/texts/374.md) The Hexayurt Project 2007 Intro Video (2007); [247](https://guptaoption.com/texts/247.md) Hexayurt Interviews Hexayurt Footage From The... (2020); [310](https://guptaoption.com/texts/310.md) Engineers Without Borders Sheffield Plywood Hexayurt How To (2015); [339](https://guptaoption.com/texts/339.md) 15 minute video on how to make Hexayurts for Burning Man (2012); [360](https://guptaoption.com/texts/360.md) ZOOM0003 (2011); ...

### Quaddome (2011) (he contributed)

- Survival hardware; built; specified; work id hy-quaddome; https://www.appropedia.org/Hexayurt_project/Nearodesic
- What: Community-designed dome in which every triangle is half a 4x8 sheet.
- Summary: Nearodesic quad-dome. Every triangle is half a 4x8 sheet. Designed by Edmund Harriss. Morgan Engel built one at Burning Man 2011. Vinay posted a built example 23 March 2026: about 14 feet in radius, not a rendering. Appropedia's Nearodesic page lists the Quaddome (H30) at 30 sheets and 448 square feet, with 4-foot and 8-foot stretched versions.
- Threads: hexayurt builds
- Came from Hexayurt (2002): zero-waste large dome. Evidence (he says so): Stamps talk 37:21, Edmund Harriss's domes built at Burning Man from downloaded designs... (2019-09-23) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJWPv3Cl5Go&t=2241s; MICA lecture 12:30, the big domes: 14 feet high, 28 across, about 450 square feet for... (2024-04-18) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DeO2L8fBe8&t=750s
- Came from H18 (2006): larger still, same sheets. Evidence (implied by the later work): Appropedia: Hexayurt project, sizes https://www.appropedia.org/Hexayurt; Appropedia: Hexayurt project/Nearodesic https://www.appropedia.org/Hexayurt_project/Nearodesic
- Sources (7, by hand first, then by importance): [36](https://guptaoption.com/texts/36.md) The Hexayurt Project: Free Hardware housing for the world (2002); [322](https://guptaoption.com/texts/322.md) Vinay Gupta at the Athens Hackerspace, 2012 September 2 (2012); [303](https://guptaoption.com/texts/303.md) How To Sell Ideas from (from Ethereum DEVCON Berlin) (2015); [185](https://guptaoption.com/texts/185.md) Hexayurt (2002); [233](https://guptaoption.com/texts/233.md) Quaddome (2020); [193](https://guptaoption.com/texts/193.md) Nearodesic Polyhedron Hexayurt Dome – Morgan Engel's Site (2011); [105](https://guptaoption.com/texts/105.md) Hexayurt project/Nearodesic (2011)

### RCDS cyber (Tibbs) (2011) (he contributed)

- Identity, law and blockchain; argument; specified; work id tibbs-cyber; https://files.howtolivewiki.com/cyber/Defense_Security_Resilience_and_rapid_technological_change.pdf
- What: Interview for the UK Royal College of Defence Studies' cyber research, run by Hardin Tibbs of Synthesys: cryptography can replace the state's role in creating artificial scarcity.
- Summary: Hardin Tibbs interview, Defence, Security and Resilience under Rapid Technological Change. The client was the UK Royal College of Defence Studies (RCDS); Synthesys ran the cyber research. Cryptography can replace the State function of manufacturing artificial scarcity. Seedbed for Mattereum. S4inet is the companion Synthesys paper.
- Threads: cryptographic applications; cyber and defense; fiction draws on
- Came from Cypherpunks (1992): applied to the State. Evidence (implied by the later work): Mattereum is Blockchain Cypherpunk (2022-03-01) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3yaXwqx-XzA&t=0s; Defence, Security and Resilience under Rapid Technological Change (Hardin Tibbs... (2011) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/cyber/Defense_Security_Resilience_and_rapid_technological_change.pdf#page=2
- Came from CheapID (2006): defense clients: US OSD, then UK RCDS. Evidence (he says so): Breaking Down Real World Assets: Crypto Daily, with Mario Nawfal and Vinay Gupta (2024-08-07) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lDu_KLWVCag&t=2250s; Mattereum is Blockchain Cypherpunk (2022-03-01) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3yaXwqx-XzA&t=0s
- Led to Ethereum launch (2015): crypto replaces manufactured scarcity. Evidence (implied by the later work): Defence, Security and Resilience under Rapid Technological Change (Hardin Tibbs... (2011) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/cyber/Defense_Security_Resilience_and_rapid_technological_change.pdf#page=2; Startup Societies Podcast, Episode 34 (2019-05-10) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YB788hhEwqM&t=641s
- Led to Mother of Hydrogen (2012): smallpox genome and a printer. Evidence (implied by the later work): Defense, Security, Resilience and rapid technological change (RCDS cyber paper), p. 12 (2011) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/cyber/Defense_Security_Resilience_and_rapid_technological_change.pdf#page=12; Mother of Hydrogen: Permanent Reds and replicators (2012-11) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/mother_of_hydrogen.txt
- Led to Multipolar Realpolitik (2024): cryptography in state security, then AI. Evidence (implied by the later work): Defence, Security and Resilience under Rapid Technological Change (Hardin Tibbs... https://files.howtolivewiki.com/cyber/Defense_Security_Resilience_and_rapid_technological_change.pdf; Multipolar Realpolitik, The solution (2024-05-06) https://docs.google.com/document/d/1AelylfOU517y0BI184sW7p8TnQl_oH8t4ajH6Fe4vH0/edit
- Led to The Global Cyber Game: Achieving strategic resilience in the global knowledge society (2013): S4inet cited in the Inquiry's report. Evidence (implied by the later work): S4inet: a simple safe secure subsystem of the internet (for Synthesys) (2011) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/cyber/S4inet-a_safer_internet_public.pdf#page=4; The Global Cyber Game (Defence Academy Cyber Inquiry Report) (2013-05-08) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/cyber/20130508-Cyber_report_final_U.pdf#page=48
- Sources (2, by hand first, then by importance): [21](https://guptaoption.com/texts/21.md) RCDS cyber (Tibbs) (2011); [11](https://guptaoption.com/texts/11.md) RCDS cyber (Tibbs) (2011)

### The Big Deal (2011)

- Crisis planning; argument; specified; work id big-deal; http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/bigdeal/the-summary-in-part-2282
- What: Four-essay blog series arguing that government has hit hard limits, so civil society, working with progressive incumbents, has to carry the load: a critique and extension of Britain's Big Society.
- Summary: Four essays of around 3,000 words each, 2 to 6 February 2011, tagged #thebigdeal. Reawakening the Enlightenment: democracy has failed to deliver on the environment and human rights. The Synthesis: government has hit hard limits of evolution, complexity, urgency and unity, so people must act together on real problems without creating a global government. The Only Way Out Is UP: the 20th century put the plutonium in the wrong end of the rockets, as warheads rather than engines. The Beautiful World: voluntary cooperation with progressive incumbents to solve the problems that feed repressive ones, a superset of the free software movement's approach. A follow-up, When? (16 August 2011), turns to positive action from the global economic crisis, and tells how in 2003 he chose to store his wealth as reputation capital because two reserve currencies looked likely to crash the global economy within ten years. The background work was The Future We Deserve book project.
- Threads: goat rodeo to warlords
- Came from The Second Amendment in Iraq, Combat Robotics, and the Future of Human Liberty (2008): filed under The Big Deal. Evidence (he says so): The Second Amendment in Iraq, Combat Robotics, and the Future of Human Liberty (blog) (2008-09-02) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/bigdeal/the-second-amendment-in-iraq-combat-robotics-and-the-future-of-human-liberty-820
- Came from Why Nothing Works: identifying and quantifying the Goat Rodeo governance antipattern (2010): a scale for government's limits, then the case for civil society. Evidence (implied by the later work): The Synthesis (Big Deal essay) (2011-02-05) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/bigdeal/the-synthesis-2243; Why Nothing Works (In a Page PDF) (2011-06-13) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/in_a_page/why_nothing_works_the_Goat_Rodeo_Index.pdf
- Came from What's going to happen in the future (2008): government challenged at every level. Evidence (implied by the later work): What's going to happen in the future (blog) (2008-06-01) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/global/whats-going-to-happen-in-the-future-670
- Led to The Future We Deserve (2012): the book project behind the essays. Evidence (he says so): The Summary: an introduction to #TheBigDeal (blog) (2011-02-06) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/bigdeal/the-summary-in-part-2282
- Led to Multipolar Realpolitik (2024): act together without a global government. Evidence (implied by the later work): The Synthesis (Big Deal essay) (2011-02-05) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/bigdeal/the-synthesis-2243; Multipolar Realpolitik, introduction (2024-05-06) https://docs.google.com/document/d/1AelylfOU517y0BI184sW7p8TnQl_oH8t4ajH6Fe4vH0/edit
- Sources (141, by hand first, then by importance): [250](https://guptaoption.com/texts/250.md) Through the Looking Glass - Vinay Gupta on systemic... (2010); [50](https://guptaoption.com/texts/50.md) The Synthesis | The Bucky-Gandhi Design Institution (2011); [52](https://guptaoption.com/texts/52.md) When? | The Bucky-Gandhi Design Institution (2011); [46](https://guptaoption.com/texts/46.md) Reawakening the Enlightenment | The Bucky-Gandhi Design... (2011); [47](https://guptaoption.com/texts/47.md) The Beautiful World | The Bucky-Gandhi Design Institution (2011); [51](https://guptaoption.com/texts/51.md) The Only Way Out Is UP | The Bucky-Gandhi Design Institution (2011); [49](https://guptaoption.com/texts/49.md) The Summary – an introduction to #TheBigDeal | The... (2011); [148](https://guptaoption.com/texts/148.md) Mother of Hydrogen (2012); [128](https://guptaoption.com/texts/128.md) Black Elephants & Skull Jackets: A Conversation with... (2010); [322](https://guptaoption.com/texts/322.md) Vinay Gupta at the Athens Hackerspace, 2012 September 2 (2012); [822](https://guptaoption.com/texts/822.md) Mother of Hydrogen, a novel (2012); [724](https://guptaoption.com/texts/724.md) Roundtable Discussion with Vinay Gupta and Bryan... (2024); ...

### The Fiends Give Sudden Chase (2011)

- Writing and inner practice; specified; work id fiends-sudden-chase; http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/other/the-atrocity-archives-and-a-little-new-fiction-2099
- What: Five very short horror stories, written after reading Charles Stross's The Atrocity Archives.
- Summary: Published on the blog on 9 January 2011 in a post about Stross's The Atrocity Archives: five very short horror stories.
- Threads: fiction draws on
- Led to The Perimeter: Mythos as Science Fiction, and other works (2024): horror shorts, then the Mythos collection. Evidence (he says so): The Atrocity Archives, and a little new fiction (blog) (2011-01-09) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/other/the-atrocity-archives-and-a-little-new-fiction-2099; The Perimeter, table of contents (2024-12-27) https://docs.google.com/document/d/1xa2Yxf8JNFT8kgDETzkRKfVqDgGeVEvdNnVpGmRIm3E/edit
- Sources (6, by hand first, then by importance): [235](https://guptaoption.com/texts/235.md) The Perimeter: Mythos as Science Fiction and other works (2024); [87](https://guptaoption.com/texts/87.md) The Atrocity Archives, and a little new fiction. | The... (2011); [389](https://guptaoption.com/texts/389.md) Big Picture Days 3 (2013); [356](https://guptaoption.com/texts/356.md) Winter Wonderland, Trouble, Seven Sisters - Andrew C... (2011); [357](https://guptaoption.com/texts/357.md) Mexico - Bleak Blues - Makerhood Christmas Party (2011); [358](https://guptaoption.com/texts/358.md) Run for Cover, Last Christmas - Bleak Blues - Makerhood... (2011)

### The Free City State (2011)

- Crisis planning; specified; work id free-city-state; https://web.archive.org/web/20160114162423/http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/other/the-free-city-state-2359
- What: Two talks at The Free School, London: city states, rational borders, matrix government and peaceful villages as a political model around SCIM.
- Summary: If each service chief were elected separately, a city state might need no overall municipal ruler. Tentative early work toward an infrastructure-centered politics. Also in the State Failure archive.

### The Future We Deserve: "Facebook for the Five Billion?" (2011)

- Identity, law and blockchain; argument; specified; work id facebook-five-billion; https://files.howtolivewiki.com/facebook_for_the_five_billion/Facebook%20for%20the%20five%20billion.pdf
- What: Talk deck at Aston Business School: identity, money and culture are being rebuilt from below, and household-scale infrastructure plus free hardware can provide basic needs without the bureaucracies of sharing.
- Summary: 25 slides in four parts: digital identity, digital currency, digital culture, breakthrough. Slide 2 is titled "Tell me who you are", the question the 2015 essay takes as its title. Identity: people born without state registration rely on social identity, and Grameen Bank lent against social standing. Money: he was paid in e-gold in the 1990s; Bitcoin and M-PESA follow. Small Is Profitable shows right-sized infrastructure carries less risk. Scaling infrastructure to the household removes the bureaucracies of sharing, so "you could run a poor country this way". Free hardware is the way forward.
- Threads: CheapID to Mattereum; RMI to spiral
- Came from CheapID (2006): identity rebuilt from below. Evidence (implied by the later work): CheapID (guptaoption.com/cheapid) (2006) https://guptaoption.com/cheapid/; The Future We Deserve: Facebook for the Five Billion? (slides) (2011-06-02) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/facebook_for_the_five_billion/Facebook%20for%20the%20five%20billion.pdf#page=1
- Came from Ending Poverty With Open Hardware (2008): free hardware, then degovernancing. Evidence (implied by the later work): Ending Poverty With Open Hardware (Reykjavik keynote source) (2008-07) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/Reykjavik_Digital_Freedoms_Conference/; The Future We Deserve: Facebook for the Five Billion? (slides) (2011-06-02) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/facebook_for_the_five_billion/Facebook%20for%20the%20five%20billion.pdf#page=19
- Led to Tell Me Who You Are: Identity, institutional memory, and the persistent illusion of the self (2015): slide 2: tell me who you are. Evidence (implied by the later work): The Future We Deserve: Facebook for the Five Billion? (slides) (2011-06-02) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/facebook_for_the_five_billion/Facebook%20for%20the%20five%20billion.pdf#page=1; Tell Me Who You Are (ConsenSys, Medium) (2015-12-23) https://medium.com/@Consensys/tell-me-who-you-are-258268bf3180
- Sources (135, by hand first, then by importance): [144](https://guptaoption.com/texts/144.md) The Future We Deserve: "Facebook for the Five Billion?" (2011); [31](https://guptaoption.com/texts/31.md) guptaoption.com/4.SIAB-ISA.php (2006); [266](https://guptaoption.com/texts/266.md) "Blockchain: IoT's trust broker?" talk on the fly by... (2017); [163](https://guptaoption.com/texts/163.md) Tell Me Who You Are. Identity, institutional memory, and... (2019); [694](https://guptaoption.com/texts/694.md) EB114 – Vinay Gupta: From Lawyer Capitalism To... (2016); [35](https://guptaoption.com/texts/35.md) CheapID (2006); [730](https://guptaoption.com/texts/730.md) The Bitcoin Podcast Interview #343- Vinay Gupta CEO Of... (2021); [82](https://guptaoption.com/texts/82.md) On Un-Designing the Cryptographic Utopia | The... (2012); [695](https://guptaoption.com/texts/695.md) Vinay Gupta - Dangerous Old Men: cypherpunk's failure,... (2015); [775](https://guptaoption.com/texts/775.md) Vinay Gupta - Foreign Policy By Internet Protocol (2015); [83](https://guptaoption.com/texts/83.md) People’s Cloud architecture and futures in 1000 words |... (2013); [24](https://guptaoption.com/texts/24.md) Three Rules for Designing the Social Enterprise (2009); ...

### The Gupta State Failure Management Archive (2011)

- Crisis planning; built; specified; work id state-failure-archive; http://www.archive.org/details/TheGuptaStateFailureManagementArchive
- What: 4.3 GB of lectures and documents on state failure and contingency management, released into the public domain on Archive.org.
- Summary: Released 6 August 2011: "4.3gb of files on State Failure and contingency management into the public domain at Archive.org", with a collaborative reader's guide on Appropedia. It starts with Dealing in Security and includes Why Nothing Works and recorded talks such as The Living City for Arup, Through the Looking Glass and Modeling State Failure With SCIM in Ireland, and The Future We Deserve at Winchester School of Art.
- Threads: nuclear / panflu
- Came from Dealing in Security (2010): released into the public domain. Evidence (he says so): The Gupta State Failure Management Archive: a public resource for hard times (blog) (2011-08-06) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/other/the-gupta-state-failure-management-archive-a-public-resource-for-hard-times-2636
- Came from Why Nothing Works: identifying and quantifying the Goat Rodeo governance antipattern (2010): part of the archive. Evidence (he says so): Gupta State Failure Management Archive reader's guide (Appropedia) http://www.appropedia.org/Gupta_State_Failure_Management_Archive
- Came from The Living City (2009): the recording, released in the archive. Evidence (he says so): Gupta State Failure Management Archive reader's guide (Appropedia) http://www.appropedia.org/Gupta_State_Failure_Management_Archive
- Sources (7, by hand first, then by importance): [52](https://guptaoption.com/texts/52.md) When? | The Bucky-Gandhi Design Institution (2011); [99](https://guptaoption.com/texts/99.md) User:Vinay Gupta/Gupta State Failure Management Archive (2011); [89](https://guptaoption.com/texts/89.md) The Gupta State Failure Management Archive – a public... (2011); [824](https://guptaoption.com/texts/824.md) Index of /__CRASHPAD (2011); [60](https://guptaoption.com/texts/60.md) Dealing in Security – Simple Critical Infrastructure... (2009); [366](https://guptaoption.com/texts/366.md) "Through the Looking Glass" - Vinay Gupta - Ireland... (2010); [378](https://guptaoption.com/texts/378.md) Vinay Gupta Live Stream (2016)

### The Resilience Dividend (2011)

- Crisis planning; proposal; specified; work id resilience-dividend; https://resiliencedesigner.com/
- What: Four-page paper: after the 2011 debt-ceiling crisis and riots, resilience can reach ordinary families through a service ecology of resilience designers, guides and coaches, modeled on home improvement.
- Summary: Dated 14 August 2011 and published at resiliencedesigner.com under the heading About the Service Ecology of Resilience. With the US within hours of sovereign default and riots in Britain, governments had validated the sense of crisis, so resilience could move from true believers to innovators on Rogers' diffusion model. Transition Towns, survivalism and Civil Contingencies each miss ordinary people; Civil Contingencies handles a point crisis like a flood, not a systemic one. Innovators buy services, so a resilience designer or guide plans a family's path through five steps: 72-hour kits, household resilience, lifestyle, financial resilience, and psychological and spiritual resilience.
- Came from Through the Looking Glass (2010): point and systemic crisis, carried into a service for families. Evidence (implied by the later work): Through the Looking Glass talk 39:14 (2020-03-20) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jm5o-ughyD8&t=2354s; Through the Looking Glass talk 18:35 (2020-03-20) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jm5o-ughyD8&t=1115s
- Sources (5, by hand first, then by importance): [848] The Resilience Dividend (2011) (no text here); [365](https://guptaoption.com/texts/365.md) social media and local resilience (2010); [363](https://guptaoption.com/texts/363.md) Culture Control Group - Brussels Cheese Crisis Report -... (2011); [223](https://guptaoption.com/texts/223.md) Finding Each other in the Ruins - resilience (2025); [182](https://guptaoption.com/texts/182.md) About (2007)

### Truth and Beauty (2011)

- Writing and inner practice; specified; work id truth-and-beauty; https://files.howtolivewiki.com/TRUTHANDBEAUTY/
- What: Hosted a London talk series; speakers included Richard Stallman and Jamais Cascio.
- Summary: Hosted series at The Hub Westminster. The season page is archived at files.howtolivewiki.com/TRUTHANDBEAUTY/. Talks on that page: Richard Stallman on free software; Nathan Koren on rocket science; Vinay Gupta on The Future We Deserve and comprehensive governance; Jamais Cascio on geoengineering; The Beauty of Truth and Beauty; Curtis Faith on cooperation; Lloyd Davis, All of Me; David Bovill, Liquid Law; James Hester on the three lessons of history.
- Threads: fiction draws on
- Led to The Future We Deserve (2012): the talks, then the book. Evidence (he says so): Truth and Beauty, or "what in the hell is going on, Vinay?" (blog) (2011-10-18) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/other/truth-and-beauty-or-what-in-the-hell-is-going-on-vinay-2877; The Future We Deserve 2, video 0:00, about a year and a half since the project began... (2012-02-15) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9irdzMI13I&t=0s
- Led to Swarm Cooperatives (Big Picture Days) (2013): another London series. Evidence (implied by the later work): Truth and Beauty (blog) (2011-10-18) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/other/truth-and-beauty-or-what-in-the-hell-is-going-on-vinay-2877; Swarm Cooperatives Schedule (blog) (2013-05-18) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/other/swarm-cooperatives-more-event-details-including-speakers-3406
- Sources (6, by hand first, then by importance): [92](https://guptaoption.com/texts/92.md) Truth and Beauty, or “what in the hell is going on,... (2011); [26](https://guptaoption.com/texts/26.md) Index of /TRUTHANDBEAUTY (2010); [256](https://guptaoption.com/texts/256.md) I'm coming to Malta (2019); [213](https://guptaoption.com/texts/213.md) Vinay | Creativity and Crisis - Vinay Gupta. 29th...; [139](https://guptaoption.com/texts/139.md) index; [214](https://guptaoption.com/texts/214.md) Reboot Britain | Benjamin Ellis | Flickr

### A Feather for Lifting Anvils: EdgeRyders 2.0 (2012)

- Economics of resources; proposal; specified; work id edgeryders-venture-social-capital; http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/other/a-feather-for-lifting-anvils-edgeryders-2-0-plans-to-change-the-world-3350
- What: The EdgeRyders plan for Venture Social Capital: financing local projects through a commitment-based social network.
- Summary: About 1,500 words, 26 November 2012. "The EdgeRyders community has decided to take a crack solving the world's problems by inventing a new collective structure: Venture Social Capital." Local projects are financed by the collective power of an extended social network, with a commitment-based structure so the group can make decisions in a timely, business-like way: "we're going into the banking business."
- Threads: social enterprise
- Came from Three Rules for Designing the Social Enterprise (2009): venture social capital. Evidence (implied by the later work): Three Rules for Designing the Social Enterprise, p. 1 (2009) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/Three_Rules_for_Designing_the_Social_Enterprise.pdf; A Feather for Lifting Anvils: EdgeRyders 2.0 (blog) (2012-11-26) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/other/a-feather-for-lifting-anvils-edgeryders-2-0-plans-to-change-the-world-3350
- Led to Hexayurt Capital Partners (2016): social capital, then a venture model. Evidence (implied by the later work): A Feather for Lifting Anvils: EdgeRyders 2.0 (blog) (2012-11-26) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/other/a-feather-for-lifting-anvils-edgeryders-2-0-plans-to-change-the-world-3350; Capital Partners transcript, August 2016, p. 8 (2016-08) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/hexayurt_guy_capital_partners.pdf
- Sources (6, by hand first, then by importance): [72](https://guptaoption.com/texts/72.md) A Feather for Lifting Anvils – EdgeRyders 2.0 plans to... (2012); [24](https://guptaoption.com/texts/24.md) Three Rules for Designing the Social Enterprise (2009); [277](https://guptaoption.com/texts/277.md) a thesis: hexayurt guy capital partners? (2016); [402](https://guptaoption.com/texts/402.md) Meaning Conference hangout 6 @meaningconf (2012); [388] Big Picture Days Hangout 4 (2013) (no text here); [646] Jeremy Silver - Internet of Agreement conference (2017) (no text here)