# Vinay Gupta: his works and how they connect (part 3 of 9, 2008 to 2009)

> Every work in his career record (175), by year, with what it is, the thread it belongs to, what it came from and led to and why, and the sources in the archive about it. Part 3 of 9, 2008 to 2009; continues in https://guptaoption.com/texts/works-4.md. Vinay Gupta, exponential humanitarian. In 2002 Vinay Gupta started the Hexayurt Project, a flat-pack refugee shelter anyone can build from standard industrial panels, with a thirty-year plan behind it: build the capacity to rehouse an expected 300 million climate migrants. Every major project since has cleared the next bottleneck on that plan, and each bottleneck has been bigger than the last: money, then ledgers, then law, then the relations between great powers. Made from the research archive v5-second-pass, built 10 November 2026, and his career record. The map of the whole archive is https://guptaoption.com/llms.txt; source ids such as [250] are at https://guptaoption.com/texts/250.md.

### Severe Panflu Response Strategies (H5N1) (2008)

- Crisis planning; proposal; specified; work id sprs; https://guptaoption.com/6.SPRS.php
- What: Strategy for a severe flu pandemic, with H5N1 bird flu as the named virus, treated as a whole-systems problem.
- Summary: guptaoption.com/6.SPRS.php. A severe influenza year as a systems problem, written around H5N1, the avian influenza virus behind the severe-panflu work. Homepage: losing 25 percent of the human race in a single year. The plague in Mother of Hydrogen draws on it. Precedes FluSCIM.
- Threads: fiction draws on; nuclear / panflu
- Connects back from Black Elephant (2009): known pandemic, same failure. Evidence (he says so): CommunityZ Chest conversation with Michael Mainelli 9:07 (2020-06-27) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMQPTytHcHg&t=547s; Ideamarket podcast 5:09 (2021-08-02) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHri_FW-OeM&t=309s
- Led to FluSCIM (2010): SPRS precedes FluSCIM. Evidence (implied by the later work): FluSCIM slides, English, p. 1 (Lucas Gonzalez Santa Cruz, 15 December 2011), in the... (2011-12-15) https://resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim/; Severe Panflu Response Strategies v0.5A (2008-03-03) https://guptaoption.com/6.SPRS.php
- Led to SCIM / INAM (2009): pandemic as systems problem. Evidence (he says so): Severe Panflu Response Strategies v0.5A (2008-03-03) https://guptaoption.com/6.SPRS.php
- Led to Mother of Hydrogen (2012): the plague in the book; severe panflu as systems problem, then as plot
- Led to The Perimeter: Mythos as Science Fiction, and other works (2024): pandemic planning by day, the Mythos at night. Evidence (he says so): The Perimeter: Mythos as Science Fiction, and other works, introduction (2024-12-27) https://docs.google.com/document/d/1xa2Yxf8JNFT8kgDETzkRKfVqDgGeVEvdNnVpGmRIm3E/edit
- Led to The Flu Code (2009): a pandemic plan, then a public code. Evidence (implied by the later work): Severe Panflu Response Strategies v0.5A (2008-03-03) https://guptaoption.com/6.SPRS.php; The Flu Code (blog) (2009-04-26) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/personal/the-flu-code-ethical-behavior-to-protect-each-other-1435
- Led to The Living City (2009): pandemic flu as the first city scenario. Evidence (he says so): The Living City talk for Arup 15:19 (2012-11-03) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vBX8cIqqTI&t=919s; The Living City talk for Arup 12:49 (2012-11-03) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vBX8cIqqTI&t=769s
- Sources (13, by hand first, then by importance): [32](https://guptaoption.com/texts/32.md) Severe Panflu Response Strategies (2006); [372](https://guptaoption.com/texts/372.md) this is not a video about coronavirus - the hypothetical... (2008); [320](https://guptaoption.com/texts/320.md) The Living City - Buttered Side Down presentation to... (2012); [97](https://guptaoption.com/texts/97.md) The Flu Code | The Bucky-Gandhi Design Institution (2009); [174](https://guptaoption.com/texts/174.md) FluSCIM-69p-English; [177](https://guptaoption.com/texts/177.md) FluSCIM-84p-Spanish; [179](https://guptaoption.com/texts/179.md) FluSCIM-slides-English; [180](https://guptaoption.com/texts/180.md) FluSCIM-slides-Spanish; [176](https://guptaoption.com/texts/176.md) FluSCIM-6p-Spanish; [175](https://guptaoption.com/texts/175.md) FluSCIM-6p-English; [53](https://guptaoption.com/texts/53.md) Wired notes the Flu Code | The Bucky-Gandhi Design... (2009); [181](https://guptaoption.com/texts/181.md) FluSCIM; ...

### Six ways people die (2008)

- Crisis planning; model; specified; work id six-ways; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqNOcmM9XAY
- What: Framework: people die of heat, cold, hunger, thirst, illness or injury, so infrastructure has to answer all six.
- Summary: Too hot, too cold, hunger, thirst, illness, injury. The map hexayurt forces. STAR-TIDES history: the graphic helped define its infrastructures.
- Threads: STAR-TIDES; hexayurt to chain
- Came from Hexayurt (2002): shelter is not enough. Evidence (he says so): The systemic risks model for survival (blog) (2008-04-20) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/hexayurt/the-systemic-risks-model-for-survival-551; Hexayurt Project: Six Ways To Die video 0:00 (2008-10-07) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqNOcmM9XAY&t=0s
- Led to SCIM / INAM (2009): the map named. Evidence (he says so): Athens Hackerspace talk 13:45 (2012-09-14) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PwmbIFDIR4&t=825s; Gupta State Failure Management Archive reader's guide (Appropedia) http://www.appropedia.org/Gupta_State_Failure_Management_Archive
- Led to Defense Horizons 70 (2009): the six ways as the infrastructure frame. Evidence (he says so): Defense Horizons 70, p. 2 (2009-12) https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333/pdf/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333.pdf#page=2; Defense Horizons 70, p. 3 (2009-12) https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333/pdf/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333.pdf#page=3
- Led to The Cities That Will Walk Away (2019): the six ways explained. Evidence (he says so): The Cities That Will Walk Away talk 43:57 (2019-09-23) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJWPv3Cl5Go&t=2637s; The Cities That Will Walk Away talk 44:46 (2019-09-23) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJWPv3Cl5Go&t=2686s
- Led to Ending Poverty With Open Hardware (2008): the needs diagram in the talk. Evidence (he says so): Reykjavik Digital Freedoms talk 14:49, the six ways to die diagram [transcribed] (2012-05-04) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmfZfgxayzE&t=889s; Ending Poverty With Open Hardware, Reykjavik slides (2008-07) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/Reykjavik_Digital_Freedoms_Conference/
- Led to Six Ways To Die workshops (2009): taught as a design workshop. Evidence (he says so): Six Ways to Die Workshop introductory lecture at Formens Hus (blog) (2009-09-24) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/other/six-ways-to-die-workshop-introductory-lecture-at-formens-hus-1576
- Led to The Physical Aspects of Distributed Infrastructure (2008): a six ways to die modeling package. Evidence (he says so): PADI p. 11, an infrastructure design aid (2008-06) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/the_physical_aspects_of_distributed_infrastructure_2008.pdf#page=11
- Sources (15, by hand first, then by importance): [753](https://guptaoption.com/texts/753.md) (OHM2013) One network one world designing for a 7 plus... (2013); [710](https://guptaoption.com/texts/710.md) TEDxEWB - Vinay Gupta - Enabling Humanitarian Innovation (2010); [335](https://guptaoption.com/texts/335.md) STAR-TIDES briefing from Vinay Gupta (2012); [369](https://guptaoption.com/texts/369.md) Hexayurt Project - Six Ways To Die (2008); [70](https://guptaoption.com/texts/70.md) The systemic risks model for survival | The Bucky-Gandhi... (2008); [832](https://guptaoption.com/texts/832.md) Index of /six_ways_to_die (2008); [681](https://guptaoption.com/texts/681.md) Pandemics and the Coronavirus Part 1 with Vinay Gupta (2020); [685](https://guptaoption.com/texts/685.md) Pandemics and the Coronavirus Part 2 with Vinay Gupta (2020); [321](https://guptaoption.com/texts/321.md) Vinay Gupta talking at FreeAndReal / The Telaithrion... (2012); [320](https://guptaoption.com/texts/320.md) The Living City - Buttered Side Down presentation to... (2012); [847](https://guptaoption.com/texts/847.md) The Living City (slides; Mike Bennett & Vinay Gupta,... (2009); [150](https://guptaoption.com/texts/150.md) Reykjavik Hexayurt Briefing; ...

### Soft Development Paths (2008)

- Economics of resources; argument; specified; work id soft-paths; https://guptaoption.com/7.soft_development_paths.php
- What: Essay applying soft energy paths to the poorest half of humanity: shelter as development, not only relief.
- Summary: guptaoption.com. Soft energy path applied to the poorest half of humanity. Hexayurt as development, not only relief.
- Threads: RMI to spiral
- Connects back to Hexayurt (2002): development not only relief. Evidence (he says so): Soft Development Paths (guptaoption.com) (2008) https://guptaoption.com/7.soft_development_paths.php; The Hexayurt in Haiti? (Hexayurt Country), v1.2 (2010-02-16) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/hexayurt_in_haiti_v1.1.pdf#page=1
- Led to Lean Green Mattereum: "We aren't just here to change the world, we're here to fix it" (2020): the soft development path, revisited. Evidence (he says so): Lean Green Mattereum deck, slide 40 (2020) https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-enFJujd8rpDbwr8QezH-3YZ2Dpi45h3/view; Soft Development Paths (guptaoption.com) (2008) https://guptaoption.com/7.soft_development_paths.php
- Led to Avoiding Capitalism for the Next Four Billion (2009): the soft development path, taught. Evidence (he says so): Avoiding Capitalism for the Next Four Billion, lecture notes (blog) (2009-01-11) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/personal/avoiding-capitalism-for-the-next-four-billion-lecture-notes-1164
- Sources (3, by hand first, then by importance): [33](https://guptaoption.com/texts/33.md) Soft Development Paths (2008); [161](https://guptaoption.com/texts/161.md) Hexayurts, Distributed Infrastructure, and Maximizing... (2014); [162](https://guptaoption.com/texts/162.md) media ccc de v emf2014 144 hexayurts distributed... (2014)

### Superstruct and URGENT EVOKE (2008 to 2010)

- Survival hardware; built; specified; work id superstruct-evoke; https://web.archive.org/web/20080927121043/http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com:80/blog/superstruct/superstruct-the-gupta-option-919
- What: The Hexayurt in two of Jane McGonigal's games: in Superstruct (2008) he wrote DCAR, a refugee state housed in Hexayurts, as The Gupta Option; URGENT EVOKE (2010) featured the Hexayurt Project and made him a mentor.
- Summary: Superstruct was the Institute for the Future's forecasting game set in 2019, created by Jane McGonigal and launched in October 2008. He played it as The Gupta Option, introduced on his blog on 23 September 2008, an early use of that name. In October 2008 he wrote wiki pages for the Hexayurt and for DCAR, a refugee state that houses much of its population in Hexayurts and runs refugee-built Hexayurt factories, plus CheapID, weakly state-like entities, seasteads and other 2019 technologies, and filmed DCAR field reports; hexayurt.com/superstruct gathered the game material. URGENT EVOKE was the World Bank Institute's 2010 game on social innovation, also directed by McGonigal. Its episode 7, the Urban Resilience week, featured the Hexayurt Project; on 16 April 2010 he posted a video resilience briefing, a note tying the comic to the real Hexayurt, and Dealing in Security as a toolkit for the mission, and on 29 April 2010 the game's blog introduced him as a mentor, of the Hexayurt Project. Players had already written Hexayurts into their own posts, for a climate-refugee camp and for rebuilding Haiti.
- Threads: hexayurt builds
- Came from Hexayurt (2002): the Hexayurt written into two games. Evidence (he says so): Superstruct Report 1, 0:00, DCAR field report: hexayurt factories operating [transcribed] (2008-10-05) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCD2x3EuiPA&t=0s; The Unplugged: The Videos (Shareable) (2010-06-08) https://www.shareable.net/the-unplugged-the-videos/
- Connects back from Dealing in Security (2010): offered as the toolkit for EVOKE's urban resilience mission
- Came from CheapID (2006): CheapID written into Superstruct's 2019
- Sources (5, by hand first, then by importance): [224](https://guptaoption.com/texts/224.md) The Unplugged: The Videos - Shareable (2010); [370](https://guptaoption.com/texts/370.md) Superstruct Report 1 (2008); [368](https://guptaoption.com/texts/368.md) Superstruct Communications Intercept 1 - DCAR (2008); [844](https://guptaoption.com/texts/844.md) Superstruct and Urgent Evoke: research note (2026); [843](https://guptaoption.com/texts/843.md) Superstruct and Urgent Evoke: the Hexayurt in two games (2026)

### The Open Toolbox for Domestic Disaster Response (2008)

- Crisis planning; proposal; specified; work id open-toolbox; http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/hexayurt/the-open-toolbox-for-domestic-disaster-response-new-company-new-paper-1056
- What: A consulting company and paper for getting open source appropriate technology into commercial supply chains, on the Red Hat model.
- Summary: 14 October 2008. The Open Toolbox was a consulting brand for getting open source appropriate technology into commercial supply chains with a "Red Hat" approach: consulting, custom engineering and service contracts, the things companies and governments need before they can buy an open source solution. Launched with the paper The Open Toolbox for Domestic Disaster Response.
- Threads: nuclear / panflu
- Came from Networked Domestic Disaster Response (2007): domestic disaster response, as a company. Evidence (implied by the later work): The Open Toolbox for Domestic Disaster Response: new company, new paper (blog) (2008-10-14) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/hexayurt/the-open-toolbox-for-domestic-disaster-response-new-company-new-paper-1056; A novel approach to handling mass refugee situations in the United States (PDF), p. 1 (2007-08-10) https://www.appropedia.org/w/images/b/b1/Hexayurt_mass_evacuation.pdf#page=1
- Sources (1, by hand first, then by importance): [69](https://guptaoption.com/texts/69.md) The Open Toolbox for Domestic Disaster Response – new... (2008)

### The Physical Aspects of Distributed Infrastructure (2008)

- Survival hardware; proposal; specified; work id padi; https://files.howtolivewiki.com/the_physical_aspects_of_distributed_infrastructure_2008.pdf
- What: Design study for ultra-low-cost solar thermal homes off the grid: cooling from the ground and evaporation, a power hub, and one insulated hot box that makes water, food and sewage safe with heat and time.
- Summary: Known as PADI. Full title: The Physical Aspects of Distributed Infrastructure Design for the Developing World. A 33-page illustrated design study, v 0.2, marked proprietary and confidential when written and now linked from hexayurt.com as "a designers guide for ultra-low-cost solar thermal off-the-grid systems". It starts from one axiom: "The primary function of a building is to maintain the body temperature of the people inside at a safe and comfortable level." Without big energy inputs a building has five natural gradients to work with: seasonal, daily, shade, ground sink and evaporation. In hot, dry climates the Hexayurt's shade, reflective skin and ground sink already give a result of 10C cooler inside than outside on dry bulb tests. From there it designs a cold box (a ground-pipe cooler feeding an evaporative refrigerator), a "power funger" hub "driving whatever you need with whatever you have", broad diffuse lighting from one small LED per room, and a hot box built into the wall. One mechanism serves water, food and sewage: 65C for 8 hours kills more or less all pathogens, so a digital solar valve lets a tank be emptied only once it has been hot long enough, and a toilet cycle trucks heat-disinfected buckets to composting. It calls for software to model household and village micro-infrastructure, extended into an integrated six ways to die modeling package, and ends asking whether, in mass production and the right geography, the whole system could cost $200 per household: "much work remains even to assess feasibility".
- Threads: RMI to spiral; standard SKUs
- Came from Hexayurt infrastructure kit (2003): the kit's utilities, designed. Evidence (implied by the later work): PADI p. 11, household and village electrical services (2008-06) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/the_physical_aspects_of_distributed_infrastructure_2008.pdf#page=11; PADI p. 31, the idealized system (2008-06) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/the_physical_aspects_of_distributed_infrastructure_2008.pdf#page=31
- Came from Hexayurt (2002): shade and ground sink: 10C cooler inside. Evidence (he says so): PADI p. 1, Explaining The Hexayurt in hot, dry climates (2008-06) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/the_physical_aspects_of_distributed_infrastructure_2008.pdf#page=1; PADI p. 6, enhancing the ground sink (2008-06) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/the_physical_aspects_of_distributed_infrastructure_2008.pdf#page=6
- Came from Six ways people die (2008): a six ways to die modeling package. Evidence (he says so): PADI p. 11, an infrastructure design aid (2008-06) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/the_physical_aspects_of_distributed_infrastructure_2008.pdf#page=11
- Came from Small is Profitable (2002): small electrical resources, at household scale. Evidence (implied by the later work): PADI p. 11, Whole Systems Optimization of Small Electrical Resources (2008-06) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/the_physical_aspects_of_distributed_infrastructure_2008.pdf#page=11; State in a Box: Identity Services Architecture (guptaoption.com) (2006) https://guptaoption.com/4.SIAB-ISA.php
- Led to Ending Poverty With Open Hardware (2008): the household utilities, argued in Reykjavik a month later. Evidence (implied by the later work): The Physical Aspects of Distributed Infrastructure, p. 13 (2008-06) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/the_physical_aspects_of_distributed_infrastructure_2008.pdf; Reykjavik Digital Freedoms talk 14:49, move critical technologies to the household... (2012-05-04) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmfZfgxayzE&t=889s
- Sources (16, by hand first, then by importance): [36](https://guptaoption.com/texts/36.md) The Hexayurt Project: Free Hardware housing for the world (2002); [17](https://guptaoption.com/texts/17.md) The Physical Aspects of Distributed Infrastructure (2008); [1](https://guptaoption.com/texts/1.md) Dealing in Security.July2010.en; [270](https://guptaoption.com/texts/270.md) Hope For The World (2017); [727](https://guptaoption.com/texts/727.md) Undergraduate Lecture Series 2024: Vinay Gupta & Bryan... (2024); [335](https://guptaoption.com/texts/335.md) STAR-TIDES briefing from Vinay Gupta (2012); [740](https://guptaoption.com/texts/740.md) Hexayurt Interviews - Vinay Gupta and Bob Vrtis - at... (2017); [375](https://guptaoption.com/texts/375.md) Folding Hexayurt Briefing (2007); [12](https://guptaoption.com/texts/12.md) Defense Horizons 70 (2009); [850] TIDES Boards 2 (2007) (no text here); [137](https://guptaoption.com/texts/137.md) STAR-TIDES (2007); [70](https://guptaoption.com/texts/70.md) The systemic risks model for survival | The Bucky-Gandhi... (2008); ...

### The Second Amendment in Iraq, Combat Robotics, and the Future of Human Liberty (2008)

- Crisis planning; argument; specified; work id combat-robotics-2008; http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/bigdeal/the-second-amendment-in-iraq-combat-robotics-and-the-future-of-human-liberty-820
- What: Blog essay arguing that combat robots would end the balance in which an armed population can make an occupation unworkable, so building them must be avoided.
- Summary: About 5,100 words, 2 September 2008, later filed under The Big Deal. Written partly from the population's view and partly from a policy view. The Second Amendment describes a balance both sides can live with: governments keep the monopoly on war between governments, and armed people can make an occupation cost enough that it stops. Combat robots would remove that check, so the drive to build them is a bad long-term move. An early piece on AI in war, sixteen years before Multipolar Realpolitik.
- Threads: cyber and defense
- Led to Multipolar Realpolitik (2024): AI in war: combat robots in 2008, opposing AI systems in 2024. Evidence (implied by the later work): The Second Amendment in Iraq, Combat Robotics, and the Future of Human Liberty (blog) (2008-09-02) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/bigdeal/the-second-amendment-in-iraq-combat-robotics-and-the-future-of-human-liberty-820; Multipolar Realpolitik, Needle 3 (2024-05-06) https://docs.google.com/document/d/1AelylfOU517y0BI184sW7p8TnQl_oH8t4ajH6Fe4vH0/edit
- Led to The Big Deal (2011): filed under The Big Deal. Evidence (he says so): The Second Amendment in Iraq, Combat Robotics, and the Future of Human Liberty (blog) (2008-09-02) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/bigdeal/the-second-amendment-in-iraq-combat-robotics-and-the-future-of-human-liberty-820
- Sources (4, by hand first, then by importance): [694](https://guptaoption.com/texts/694.md) EB114 – Vinay Gupta: From Lawyer Capitalism To... (2016); [48](https://guptaoption.com/texts/48.md) The Second Amendment in Iraq, Combat Robotics, and the... (2008); [30](https://guptaoption.com/texts/30.md) Winning the Long Peace (2007); [701](https://guptaoption.com/texts/701.md) Vinay Gupta - Gun Control Precedes Genocide | London Real (2014)

### What is the Global Swadeshi Network? (2008)

- Economics of resources; argument; specified; work id global-swadeshi; http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/global/what-is-the-global-swadeshi-network-598
- What: Founding statement of the Global Swadeshi Network, which he co-founded: Gandhi's swadeshi, economic self-reliance, applied to personal freedom and technical self-reliance worldwide.
- Summary: 1,347 words, 9 May 2008. "Swadeshi is Gandhi's term for economic self reliance": in his time the cloth trade exported India's wealth to England. The network is a community working on personal freedom and economic or technical self-reliance, so people can keep a good standard of living while ceasing to take part in oppression; as people move toward swadeshi, economies of scale emerge, as they did for Linux. The Global Swadeshi Dialogs, recorded conversations, followed that summer.
- Threads: RMI to spiral
- Led to Leashless (2009): swadeshi, then the manifesto. Evidence (he says so): What is the Global Swadeshi Network? (blog) (2008-05-09) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/global/what-is-the-global-swadeshi-network-598; Leashless (PDF), p. 22 (2009) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/leashless_manifesto.pdf
- Led to Ending Poverty With Open Hardware (2008): the Reykjavik talk closes on swadeshi. Evidence (he says so): Ending Poverty With Open Hardware, Reykjavik slides, closing slide (2008-07) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/Reykjavik_Digital_Freedoms_Conference/; Blog Action Day: Ending Poverty with Open Hardware (blog) (2008-10-15) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/hexayurt/blog-action-day-poverty-ending-poverty-with-open-hardware-1070
- Sources (5, by hand first, then by importance): [56](https://guptaoption.com/texts/56.md) What is the Global Swadeshi Network? | The Bucky-Gandhi... (2008); [333](https://guptaoption.com/texts/333.md) Global Swadeshi Dialogs - Smari McCarthy (Icelandic Fab... (2012); [62](https://guptaoption.com/texts/62.md) Global Swadeshi Dialogs – mostly deborked audio | The... (2008); [340] Interview with Marcin of Open Source Ecology 25May08 (2012) (no text here); [821](https://guptaoption.com/texts/821.md) Index of /FSFI (2008)

### What's going to happen in the future (2008)

- Crisis planning; argument; specified; work id future-2008; http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/global/whats-going-to-happen-in-the-future-670
- What: Blog essay naming four trends for the next twenty years: power as cheap as information, computers and phones everywhere, the poor politicized, and government challenged at every level.
- Summary: About 3,650 words, 1 June 2008. Four trends for the next 20 years: power becoming as cheap as information, the global spread of computers and phones, the politicization of the poor, and a challenge to government at every level.
- Led to The Big Deal (2011): government challenged at every level. Evidence (implied by the later work): What's going to happen in the future (blog) (2008-06-01) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/global/whats-going-to-happen-in-the-future-670
- Sources (4, by hand first, then by importance): [57](https://guptaoption.com/texts/57.md) What’s going to happen in the future. | The Bucky-Gandhi... (2008); [365](https://guptaoption.com/texts/365.md) social media and local resilience (2010); [511](https://guptaoption.com/texts/511.md) $20-50tr in the Next 5-10 Years (2025); [606] Mattereum Highlights - Rob Knight on the idea behind the... (2018) (no text here)

### Avoiding Capitalism for the Next Four Billion (2009)

- Economics of resources; argument; specified; work id avoiding-capitalism; http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/personal/avoiding-capitalism-for-the-next-four-billion-lecture-notes-1164
- What: Lecture at the Temporary School of Thought: poverty means dying of being poor, the death-toll arithmetic behind that, and the soft development path as the answer.
- Summary: Lecture notes posted 11 January 2009, with audio. "Poverty means dying of being poor": every year 60 million people die of all causes, and it counts how many of those die of poverty. Its answer includes the soft development path, since the planet cannot carry 5.5 billion more people living like today's billion capitalists.
- Threads: RMI to spiral
- Came from Soft Development Paths (2008): the soft development path, taught. Evidence (he says so): Avoiding Capitalism for the Next Four Billion, lecture notes (blog) (2009-01-11) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/personal/avoiding-capitalism-for-the-next-four-billion-lecture-notes-1164
- Sources (3, by hand first, then by importance): [94](https://guptaoption.com/texts/94.md) Avoiding Capitalism for the Next Four Billion lecture... (2009); [238](https://guptaoption.com/texts/238.md) Ending Poverty With Open Hardware (Reykjavik Digital... (2008); [854](https://guptaoption.com/texts/854.md) UNCIVILISATION, The Dark Mountain Festival 2010: Vinay... (2010)

### Black Elephant (2009) (he contributed)

- Crisis planning; model; specified; work id black-elephant; https://dougald.nu/black-elephants-skull-jackets-a-conversation-with-vinay-gupta/
- What: The black elephant: a foreseeable disaster that institutions ignore and later call a black swan. Coined by Lloyd Davis in the Institute for Collapsonomics circle, 2009.
- Summary: Elephant in the room plus black swan. Coined by Lloyd Davis on 24 April 2009 in the Institute for Collapsonomics circle (earlier versions of this data said it was named by Gupta with Dougald Hine). A test of whether organizations actually work.
- Threads: black elephant; nuclear / panflu
- Came from Institute for Collapsonomics (2009): the term was coined in this circle. Evidence (he says so): How To Sell Ideas talk, Ethereum DEVCON Berlin 9:02 (2015-02-21) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fyX2rwKT9DE&t=542s; Grounded Gabbin' conversation 35:00 (2020-06-20) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQQjNBPJ2RE&t=2100s
- Connects back to Nuclear / mass evacuation (2007): known bomb, treated as unthinkable. Evidence (implied by the later work): Nuclear Poker talk, London Educational Games Meetup 5:00 (2016-04-23) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_e9JHcA4MWA&t=300s; Dougald Hine, Black Elephants and Skull Jackets: a conversation with Vinay Gupta (2010-05-01) https://dougald.nu/black-elephants-skull-jackets-a-conversation-with-vinay-gupta/
- Connects back to Severe Panflu Response Strategies (H5N1) (2008): known pandemic, same failure. Evidence (he says so): CommunityZ Chest conversation with Michael Mainelli 9:07 (2020-06-27) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMQPTytHcHg&t=547s; Ideamarket podcast 5:09 (2021-08-02) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHri_FW-OeM&t=309s
- Led to Taming Black Elephants (2017): Singapore government foresight takes the term up. Evidence (he says so): CommunityZ Chest conversation with Michael Mainelli 9:07 (2020-06-27) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMQPTytHcHg&t=547s; Centre for Strategic Futures, Foresight Conference 2015 proceedings, p. 17 (2015-07) https://www.csf.gov.sg/files/media-centre/foresight-conference-2015-proceedings5e5de5d076d766deb7fdff00000cf313.pdf
- Led to Stampeding Black Elephants (2014): the term reaches a New York Times column. Evidence (he says so): How To Sell Ideas talk, Ethereum DEVCON Berlin 10:05 (2015-02-21) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fyX2rwKT9DE&t=605s; Word Spy: black elephant https://wordspy.com/words/black-elephant
- Sources (5, by hand first, then by importance): [128](https://guptaoption.com/texts/128.md) Black Elephants & Skull Jackets: A Conversation with... (2010); [303](https://guptaoption.com/texts/303.md) How To Sell Ideas from (from Ethereum DEVCON Berlin) (2015); [773](https://guptaoption.com/texts/773.md) Vinay Gupta — Incentive-based epistemology | Ideamarket... (2021); [117](https://guptaoption.com/texts/117.md) The Black Elephant Lapel Pin & Logo | Metalabel (2009); [200](https://guptaoption.com/texts/200.md) black elephant (2009)

### Buttered Side Down (2009)

- Crisis planning; specified; work id buttered-side-down; https://web.archive.org/web/20150620074811/http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/other/revising-boyd-for-bureaucracy-ooda-2x2-1613
- What: A historic risk management consultancy set up with Mike Bennett in 2009, behind the OODA 2x2 model and the Living City talk for Arup.
- Summary: Tagline: we solve your real problem. Work under its name includes the OODA 2x2, which redraws Boyd's loop as seeing and doing against beginning and completing, so that senior staff see and begin while junior staff do and complete (blog, 4 November 2009); The Living City, Mike Bennett and Vinay Gupta, on urban resilience for Arup (November 2009); the TEDxEWB 2010 deck; and the 2010 Nuclear Poker sheet.
- Sources (8, by hand first, then by importance): [847](https://guptaoption.com/texts/847.md) The Living City (slides; Mike Bennett & Vinay Gupta,... (2009); [256](https://guptaoption.com/texts/256.md) I'm coming to Malta (2019); [213](https://guptaoption.com/texts/213.md) Vinay | Creativity and Crisis - Vinay Gupta. 29th...; [373](https://guptaoption.com/texts/373.md) Folding Hexayurt Opening and Closing (2007); [376](https://guptaoption.com/texts/376.md) test2 (2016); [290](https://guptaoption.com/texts/290.md) test (2016); [285](https://guptaoption.com/texts/285.md) quick test (2016); [287](https://guptaoption.com/texts/287.md) test edit (2016)

### Defense Horizons 70 (2009) (he contributed)

- Crisis planning; argument; specified; work id dh70; https://digitalcommons.ndu.edu/defense-horizons/15/
- What: Co-authored National Defense University paper on supporting stressed populations with distributed talent.
- Summary: STAR-TIDES and Starfish Networks: Supporting Stressed Populations with Distributed Talent. Wells, Hardy, Gupta, Noon. NDU Press. State-level: a Defense Department paper. It is 70, not 71.
- Threads: STAR-TIDES
- Came from Six ways people die (2008): the six ways as the infrastructure frame. Evidence (he says so): Defense Horizons 70, p. 2 (2009-12) https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333/pdf/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333.pdf#page=2; Defense Horizons 70, p. 3 (2009-12) https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333/pdf/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333.pdf#page=3
- Came from STAR-TIDES (2007): co-author with Lin Wells. Evidence (he says so): Defense Horizons 70, p. 1 (2009-12) https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333/pdf/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333.pdf#page=1; NDU Digital Commons record, Defense Horizons 15 (DH70) (2009-12) https://digitalcommons.ndu.edu/defense-horizons/15/
- Sources (7, by hand first, then by importance): [12](https://guptaoption.com/texts/12.md) Defense Horizons 70 (2009); [121](https://guptaoption.com/texts/121.md) "STAR–TIDES and Starfish Networks: Supporting Stressed... (2009); [20](https://guptaoption.com/texts/20.md) Resilience and Opportunity: Effective Tools for Victory... (2006); [99](https://guptaoption.com/texts/99.md) User:Vinay Gupta/Gupta State Failure Management Archive (2011); [68](https://guptaoption.com/texts/68.md) STAR-TIDES | The Bucky-Gandhi Design Institution (2007); [71](https://guptaoption.com/texts/71.md) TIDES – the skinny! | The Bucky-Gandhi Design Institution (2007); [182](https://guptaoption.com/texts/182.md) About (2007)

### Free science and engineering in the global public interest (2009)

- Economics of resources; specified; work id free-science-engineering; https://files.howtolivewiki.com/Free_science_and_engineering_in_the_global_public_interest.pdf
- What: Talk deck: poverty causes a quarter to a half of 60 million deaths a year, and open source hardware gets everywhere, even the Pentagon.
- Summary: Slides dated October 2009 and a print version. The video file places it at Know How Now, London, 2009, with the EWB Know How Now handout on the Hexayurt Project. The title is also his blog's tagline.
- Sources (13, by hand first, then by importance): [67](https://guptaoption.com/texts/67.md) Rough video from my talk in Iceland | The Bucky-Gandhi... (2008); [247](https://guptaoption.com/texts/247.md) Hexayurt Interviews Hexayurt Footage From The... (2020); [64](https://guptaoption.com/texts/64.md) Hope for the World – my talk from the Emergency Housing... (2009); [844](https://guptaoption.com/texts/844.md) Superstruct and Urgent Evoke: research note (2026); [213](https://guptaoption.com/texts/213.md) Vinay | Creativity and Crisis - Vinay Gupta. 29th...; [189](https://guptaoption.com/texts/189.md) Image(110); [212](https://guptaoption.com/texts/212.md) Strong Angel Day 3. 100_4623.jpg | hexayurt | Flickr; [188](https://guptaoption.com/texts/188.md) Hexayurt Image Gallery (2003); [190](https://guptaoption.com/texts/190.md) Image(80) (2003); [389](https://guptaoption.com/texts/389.md) Big Picture Days 3 (2013); [214](https://guptaoption.com/texts/214.md) Reboot Britain | Benjamin Ellis | Flickr; [290](https://guptaoption.com/texts/290.md) test (2016); ...

### Global Village Development Bank (2009)

- Economics of resources; proposal; thesis; work id gvdb; https://files.howtolivewiki.com/The_Global_Village_Development_Bank_v2.pdf
- What: Design for a decentralized development bank: infrastructure funded by decentralized finance, through legal agreements and software.
- Summary: 12 March 2009, draft 2. A decentralized infrastructure can be funded by decentralized finance. Legal agreements and software protocols. Also economics: how classes of SKUs get capital.
- Threads: RMI to spiral; hexayurt to chain; social enterprise
- Came from SCIM / INAM (2009): fill the cells with capital
- Came from Small is Profitable (2002): small projects as infrastructure. Evidence (he says so): Global Village Development Bank, draft 2, p. 1 (2009-03-12) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/The_Global_Village_Development_Bank_v2.pdf; Reykjavik Digital Freedoms talk 6:07, decentralized infrastructure without World Bank... (2012-05-04) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmfZfgxayzE&t=367s
- Came from Saving the World on the Cheap (2007): how to fund the engineering. Evidence (implied by the later work): Saving the World on the Cheap (2007) https://guptaoption.com/1.save.php
- Came from Akvo (2008): grant case; the Global Village Development Bank is the loan gap. Evidence (he says so): Global Village Development Bank, draft 2, p. 3 (2009-03-12) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/The_Global_Village_Development_Bank_v2.pdf; Global Village Development Bank, draft 2, p. 2 (2009-03-12) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/The_Global_Village_Development_Bank_v2.pdf
- Came from Resilience and Opportunity: Effective Tools for Victory in Fourth Generation Wars? (2006): microfinance for distributed infrastructure. Evidence (implied by the later work): Resilience and Opportunity in Fourth Generation Wars, p. 4 (co-authored) (2006) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/resilience/Resilience%20and%20Opportunity%20in%20Fourth%20Generation%20Wars%20(Final).pdf; Global Village Development Bank, draft 2, p. 3 (2009-03-12) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/The_Global_Village_Development_Bank_v2.pdf
- Led to Ethereum launch (2015): protocols need a public chain. Evidence (he says so): Breaking Down Real World Assets: Crypto Daily, with Mario Nawfal and Vinay Gupta (2024-08-07) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lDu_KLWVCag&t=2400s
- Led to Mattereum (2017): loan sits on the object. Evidence (he says so): Breaking Down Real World Assets: Crypto Daily, with Mario Nawfal and Vinay Gupta (2024-08-07) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lDu_KLWVCag&t=2400s
- Led to Three Rules for Designing the Social Enterprise (2009): lending against social capital. Evidence (implied by the later work): Global Village Development Bank, draft 2, p. 1 (2009-03-12) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/The_Global_Village_Development_Bank_v2.pdf; Global Village Development Bank, draft 2, p. 3 (2009-03-12) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/The_Global_Village_Development_Bank_v2.pdf
- Sources (7, by hand first, then by importance): [3](https://guptaoption.com/texts/3.md) The Global Village Development Bank v2 (2009); [710](https://guptaoption.com/texts/710.md) TEDxEWB - Vinay Gupta - Enabling Humanitarian Innovation (2010); [341](https://guptaoption.com/texts/341.md) Vinay Gupta - Reykjavik Digital Freedoms Conference -... (2012); [5](https://guptaoption.com/texts/5.md) Vinay Gupta one page summary; [4](https://guptaoption.com/texts/4.md) Vinay Gupta feasibility analysis; [1](https://guptaoption.com/texts/1.md) Dealing in Security.July2010.en; [598](https://guptaoption.com/texts/598.md) Mattereum Smart Property Register - David Salgado (2018)

### Guardian (open source) (2009) (about him, by others)

- Press coverage; specified; work id press-guardian-2009; https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2009/mar/05/open-source
- What: Guardian piece on the Hexayurt as open-source shelter.
- Summary: Victor Keegan, 5 March 2009. Hexayurt as open-source shelter. First major UK broadsheet mention located.
- Sources (8, by hand first, then by importance): [226](https://guptaoption.com/texts/226.md) Can we build a world with open source? | Victor Keegan |... (2009); [161](https://guptaoption.com/texts/161.md) Hexayurts, Distributed Infrastructure, and Maximizing... (2014); [69](https://guptaoption.com/texts/69.md) The Open Toolbox for Domestic Disaster Response – new... (2008); [162](https://guptaoption.com/texts/162.md) media ccc de v emf2014 144 hexayurts distributed... (2014); [829](https://guptaoption.com/texts/829.md) Index of /innovative_sheltering/day_one (2007); [196] Mark Charmer on Open Source Water and Sanitation... (2008) (no text here); [168](https://guptaoption.com/texts/168.md) I'm also interested in this question. Here's two things... (2003); [141](https://guptaoption.com/texts/141.md) technote

### Hope for the World (2009)

- Crisis planning; argument; specified; work id hope-for-the-world; http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/hexayurt/hope-for-the-world-my-talk-from-the-emergency-housing-workshop-in-sweden-1330
- What: Talk at an emergency housing workshop in Sweden: disaster relief and development aid are one problem, and relief should restore economic self-sufficiency, designed for scale.
- Summary: Given at the Emergency Housing workshop at Formens Hus, Hällefors, Sweden; video, audio and slides posted 2 March 2009. "There is No Fundamental Difference Between Disaster Relief and Development Aid if Disaster Relief is Understood Fully": the poor die first in disasters because of the poverty already there, so relief should restore economic self-sufficiency. Designing for scale means cost, logistics ("Spend per Disaster Victim is $20 to $100"), no patents, and turning materials already in the global supply chain into survival gear, as hexayurts, solar water disinfection and Sulabh toilets do.
- Led to Six Ways To Die workshops (2009): the same Swedish venue, six months later. Evidence (implied by the later work): Hope For The World talk 10:00 (2017-03-21) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PN7q23D4rBo&t=600s; Hope for the World: my talk from the Emergency Housing workshop in Sweden (blog) (2009-03-02) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/hexayurt/hope-for-the-world-my-talk-from-the-emergency-housing-workshop-in-sweden-1330
- Led to The Private Humanitarian Company (2010): relief and development as one problem, then a company to deliver it. Evidence (implied by the later work): Hope for the World slides (Sweden presentation) (2009) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/hope_for_the_world/; The Private Humanitarian Company (2010-11-04) https://files.howtolivewiki.com/in_a_page/The_Private_Humanitarian_Company.pdf
- Sources (30, by hand first, then by importance): [270](https://guptaoption.com/texts/270.md) Hope For The World (2017); [64](https://guptaoption.com/texts/64.md) Hope for the World – my talk from the Emergency Housing... (2009); [27](https://guptaoption.com/texts/27.md) Index of /hope_for_the_world (2009); [827](https://guptaoption.com/texts/827.md) The Private Humanitarian Company (2010); [32](https://guptaoption.com/texts/32.md) Severe Panflu Response Strategies (2006); [710](https://guptaoption.com/texts/710.md) TEDxEWB - Vinay Gupta - Enabling Humanitarian Innovation (2010); [335](https://guptaoption.com/texts/335.md) STAR-TIDES briefing from Vinay Gupta (2012); [369](https://guptaoption.com/texts/369.md) Hexayurt Project - Six Ways To Die (2008); [740](https://guptaoption.com/texts/740.md) Hexayurt Interviews - Vinay Gupta and Bob Vrtis - at... (2017); [8](https://guptaoption.com/texts/8.md) Municipal Administration of Cities in Crisis (2013); [38](https://guptaoption.com/texts/38.md) Hexayurt Country: The Hexayurt Project plan for relief... (2010); [29](https://guptaoption.com/texts/29.md) Saving the World on the Cheap (2007); ...

### Infrastructure for Anarchists (2009)

- Economics of resources; argument; specified; work id infrastructure-for-anarchists; http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/personal/talk-outline-for-jan-7th-in-london-infrastructure-for-anarchists-1144
- What: Two-hour talk at the Temporary School of Thought in London: exercises for seeing the invisible grids people live on, and how seeing them changes politics.
- Summary: Talk of 7 January 2009 at the Temporary School of Thought, London; outline posted 4 January 2009. Visualization exercises for seeing the infrastructure grids that keep people alive, and how that changes politics.
- Threads: hexayurt to chain
- Led to SCIM / INAM (2009): seeing the invisible grids, then mapping them. Evidence (implied by the later work): Talk outline for Jan 7th in London: Infrastructure for Anarchists (blog) (2009-01-04) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/personal/talk-outline-for-jan-7th-in-london-infrastructure-for-anarchists-1144
- Sources (6, by hand first, then by importance): [95](https://guptaoption.com/texts/95.md) Talk outline for Jan 7th in London – Infrastructure for... (2009); [187](https://guptaoption.com/texts/187.md) Six Ways To Die workshops (2009); [89](https://guptaoption.com/texts/89.md) The Gupta State Failure Management Archive – a public... (2011); [366](https://guptaoption.com/texts/366.md) "Through the Looking Glass" - Vinay Gupta - Ireland... (2010); [109](https://guptaoption.com/texts/109.md) akvo.org - Home (2008); [214](https://guptaoption.com/texts/214.md) Reboot Britain | Benjamin Ellis | Flickr

### Institute for Collapsonomics (2009)

- Crisis planning; specified; work id collapsonomics; http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/global/framing-the-collapsonomics-practice-1338
- What: Co-founded a London group studying economies and states at the edge of collapse, formed after the 2008 crash.
- Summary: Co-founders named by Dougald Hine: Kalam Ali, Mike Bennett, Mamading Ceesay, Dougald Hine and Vinay Gupta. Earliest dated trace: the blog post The Collapsonomics Practice, 19 February 2009, followed by the founding essay, Framing The Collapsonomics Practice, 9 March 2009. The black elephant term was coined in this circle.
- Threads: black elephant
- Led to Black Elephant (2009): the term was coined in this circle. Evidence (he says so): How To Sell Ideas talk, Ethereum DEVCON Berlin 9:02 (2015-02-21) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fyX2rwKT9DE&t=542s; Grounded Gabbin' conversation 35:00 (2020-06-20) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQQjNBPJ2RE&t=2100s
- Led to The Flu Code (2009): a public service from the Institute for Collapsonomics. Evidence (he says so): The Flu Code (blog) (2009-04-26) http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/personal/the-flu-code-ethical-behavior-to-protect-each-other-1435
- Sources (4, by hand first, then by importance): [54](https://guptaoption.com/texts/54.md) Framing The Collapsonomics Practice | The Bucky-Gandhi... (2009); [770](https://guptaoption.com/texts/770.md) Grounded Gabbin' with Vinay Gupta (on the meta-crisis) (2020); [96](https://guptaoption.com/texts/96.md) The Collapsonomics Practice | The Bucky-Gandhi Design... (2009); [223](https://guptaoption.com/texts/223.md) Finding Each other in the Ruins - resilience (2025)