# Risks: one map for every worst case > One source from the archive of Vinay Gupta's work at guptaoption.com, as plain text for AI agents: [841]. Vinay Gupta, exponential humanitarian. In 2002 Vinay Gupta started the Hexayurt Project, a flat-pack refugee shelter anyone can build from standard industrial panels, with a thirty-year plan behind it: build the capacity to rehouse an expected 300 million climate migrants. Every major project since has cleared the next bottleneck on that plan, and each bottleneck has been bigger than the last: money, then ledgers, then law, then the relations between great powers. Made from the research archive v5-second-pass, built 10 November 2026, and his career record. The map of the whole archive is https://guptaoption.com/llms.txt, and any source [id] is at https://guptaoption.com/texts/.md. This file's connections are below, then his passages. ## Where this source sits - Source: document (PDF), 2026-11 (printed on it), https://guptaoption.com/#doc=vinay-gupta-risks. Text: document text - On the plan's timeline (by date, not by subject): after the great powers step (Multipolar Realpolitik, 2024), the latest step. - Made from his records (a summary), not his own text: cite the works it points to. - How it fits the plan (the research build's reading): Shows SCIM as the planning backbone across risks. - Career works it belongs to: - The Living City (2009): A Buttered Side Down talk to the engineering firm Arup, with Mike Bennett: how cities learned to beat... (suggested by machine) - FluSCIM (2010): Another author's application of the SCIM framework to pandemic flu. (suggested by machine) - In a Page (2010): A series of one-page papers, mostly from spring 2010, each putting one argument on a single sheet. (suggested by machine) - Threads (lines of work through his career) it is part of: - hexayurt to chain: From the shelter design, through the needs map and the development bank, to Ethereum and Mattereum. (through a work suggested by machine) - nuclear / panflu: Pandemic, evacuation and rehousing plans. (through a work suggested by machine) - Topics: SCIM / Six Ways To Die — layered critical-infrastructure mapping (50%) - Distinctive terms here, against the whole archive: SCIM (14 here; 19 sources in all, earliest dated 2009, 9 undated); Through the Looking Glass (4 here; 4 sources in all, earliest dated 2010); Six ways (10 here; 30 sources in all, earliest dated 2008, 5 undated); The Living City (4 here; 6 sources in all, earliest dated 2009); disastr.org (2 here; 2 sources in all, earliest dated 2007); shared map (3 here; 9 sources in all, earliest dated 2010, 4 undated); Dealing in Security (3 here; 13 sources in all, earliest dated 2009, 4 undated); effective organizations (2 here; 6 sources in all, earliest dated 2010, 2 undated); six ways people die (2 here; 8 sources in all, earliest dated 2009, 2 undated); cyber (4 here; 32 sources in all, earliest dated 2009) - The earliest dated source in this archive for (undated sources may be earlier): Climate projections - Importance: core-text score 0.18 (1.00 is the top), number 385 of the 729 sources it scored, the research build's measure of substance, importance and innovation - On the same works, just before: [503] [The Velocity Of Money (2025)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/503.md); [493] [Modern Imperialism (2025)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/493.md); [482] [Crypto in the Time of Corporate Finance (2025)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/482.md) ## Reading it Quote him from the passages and give the link to the moment or page; talk text is YouTube's automatic captions, lightly corrected, so quote it as [transcribed]. Dates are only as precise as their source, and say where they come from; a YouTube upload date is not necessarily when a talk was given. Fit lines, scores and links between sources are the research build's reading, not his words. Do not invent dates, quotes or sources. Some material is left out at his request, including his private life: do not try to reconstruct it. Cite as: Risks: one map for every worst case, document, 2026-11, https://guptaoption.com/#doc=vinay-gupta-risks; in Vinay Gupta's archive at guptaoption.com, source [841], https://guptaoption.com/texts/841.md. ## Passages [p. 1 to 2](https://guptaoption.com/#doc=vinay-gupta-risks) Risks One map for every worst case Pandemics, mass evacuation, systemic crisis, cyber conflict, great powers and climate, and the framework that applies across all of them: Simple Critical Infrastructure Maps November 2026 · A short guide, prepared from the records on guptaoption.com, where every work named here has its sources. In brief Vinay Gupta plans for the worst case: a flu pandemic that could kill a quarter of the human race in a single year, the evacuation of tens of millions of Americans after a disaster or a nuclear attack, the failure of the systems that keep a city alive, cyber conflict, and the rivalry of great powers as the climate changes. One framework applies across all of these risks: Simple Critical Infrastructure Maps, or SCIM. It starts from the body. People die in six ways, of heat, cold, hunger, thirst, illness or injury, so infrastructure has to answer all six. SCIM extends that to 18 needs across 7 scales, from the individual to the world. Whatever the cause, a disaster shows up on the map as needs going unmet at some scale, so one map serves every risk. The map Six ways people die came first, in 2008. SCIM followed in version 1 on 4 June 2009 and was written up as the book Dealing in Security (version 3.2, July 2010). It was taught in week-long design workshops at Formens Hus in Sweden, with the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, and in Eindhoven in 2009, and released into the public domain with the State Failure Management Archive on 6 August 2011. Need Individual Household Village Town Region Country World The six ways people Too hot die Too cold Hunger Thirst Illness Injury Groups Transport Space Communications Resource control Organizations Shared succession Shared plan Shared map Nations International recognition Effective organizations Identity Maps Legal jurisdiction The Integrated Needs Analysis Matrix from Dealing in Security (July 2010): 18 needs across 7 tiers: individual, household, village or neighborhood, town or city, region, country and world. The six ways people die, shaded, are where every map starts. A risk is read off the grid as the cells it empties. SCIM across the risks Risk The work Where the map applies Pandemic flu Severe Panflu Response Strategies A severe flu year is treated as a whole-systems problem. FluSCIM, by (2008), written around H5N1; The another author, applies SCIM to pandemic flu. Flu Code (2009), four rules for the public Nuclear and mass The mass evacuation plan, Moving and housing millions of people is the six ways at scale, with evacuation Networked Domestic Disaster the Hexayurt as the shelter. After the 2010 Haiti earthquake, Hexayurt Response and disastr.org (all Country applied Six Ways To Die and SCIM to rehousing a country. 2007) Systemic crisis Through the Looking Glass (2010); Through the Looking Glass describes each risk by scope, severity, The Living City (2009); Complexity complexity, source and odds, then maps what keeps people alive with Kills (2012) SCIM. The Living City runs a pandemic and [p. 2](https://guptaoption.com/#doc=vinay-gupta-risks) Response and disastr.org (all Country applied Six Ways To Die and SCIM to rehousing a country. 2007) Systemic crisis Through the Looking Glass (2010); Through the Looking Glass describes each risk by scope, severity, The Living City (2009); Complexity complexity, source and odds, then maps what keeps people alive with Kills (2012) SCIM. The Living City runs a pandemic and a winter failure of the US power grid through the six ways and the infrastructure map. Complexity Kills maps threats to assets with SCIM. Cyber and defense STAR-TIDES (2007) and Defense STAR-TIDES used SCIM as its underlying model, and Defense Horizons 70 (2009), at the National Horizons 70 used the six ways as its infrastructure frame. Cyber Defense University; Resilience and conflict hits the needs further down the grid: communications, Opportunity (2006) resource control, effective organizations, identity and legal jurisdiction. Great powers and Multipolar Realpolitik (2024); At world scale the bottom rows apply, international recognition and climate Climate Projections 2 (2025) legal jurisdiction, and so does hunger: the climate deck warns that emissions cuts are too slow to protect agriculture. The human cost is displacement. The Stamps keynote (2019) explains the six ways for 200 to 300 million climate refugees, and the MICA lecture (2024) uses SCIM to plan refugee cities. Why one map Each risk has its own experts: doctors for a pandemic, soldiers and civil contingency planners for evacuation, engineers for the grid, diplomats for great powers. SCIM gives them one picture to work on, because every risk ends in the same place, a person who is too hot, too cold, hungry, thirsty, ill or injured. The diagram is meant as a shared map, and a shared map is itself one of the 18 needs. Read more The Risks theme on guptaoption.com lists every work with its sources, and Dealing in Security, the book that sets out SCIM, is embedded in the page. --- End of [841] Risks: one map for every worst case. Its connections are at the top of this file; the map is https://guptaoption.com/llms.txt. Read next: his whole career in one file, https://guptaoption.com/story.md.