# Vinay Gupta: Liberation, Culture, Conflict and Catastrophe (part 2 of 3)

> One source from the archive of Vinay Gupta's work at guptaoption.com, as plain text for AI agents: [704], part 2 of 3. Vinay Gupta, exponential humanitarian. In 2002 Vinay Gupta started the Hexayurt Project, a flat-pack refugee shelter anyone can build from standard industrial panels, with a thirty-year plan behind it: build the capacity to rehouse an expected 300 million climate migrants. Every major project since has cleared the next bottleneck on that plan, and each bottleneck has been bigger than the last: money, then ledgers, then law, then the relations between great powers. Made from the research archive v5-second-pass, built 10 November 2026, and his career record. The map of the whole archive is https://guptaoption.com/llms.txt, and any source [id] is at https://guptaoption.com/texts/<id>.md. This file's connections are below, then his passages.

## Where this source sits

- Source: video, 2024-11-02 (YouTube upload date), https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhNF4e2oQf4. Text: automatic captions, partly corrected
- On the plan's timeline (by date, not by subject): after the great powers step (Multipolar Realpolitik, 2024), the latest step.
- How it fits the plan (the research build's reading): Practice strand with fiction-as-meaning.
- Career works it belongs to:
  - Creation and Crisis (2011): Talk at the Thursday Club, Goldsmiths, on how science fiction shaped his work, from Bruce Sterling's...
  - Climate Projections 2: A lot of very boring graphs which all go upwards (2025): Slide deck: warming is outrunning the models and emissions cuts are too slow to protect agriculture, so...
  - In a Page (2010): A series of one-page papers, mostly from spring 2010, each putting one argument on a single sheet. (suggested by machine)
  - The Big Deal (2011): Four-essay blog series arguing that government has hit hard limits, so civil society, working with... (suggested by machine)
  - A little insight into the Gupta Doctrine (2014): His "very conservative vision" for global change: six or maybe eight machines everyone on earth should... (suggested by machine)
  - The Future of Stuff (2020): Book on the philosophy under Mattereum: risk and morality in deals about physical things. (suggested by machine)
- Threads (lines of work through his career) it is part of:
  - nuclear / panflu: Pandemic, evacuation and rehousing plans.
  - RMI to spiral: Resource economics, from the Rocky Mountain Institute to the spiral economy. (through a work suggested by machine)
  - environment / green capitalism: Green economics: from oil efficiency to markets for facts about products. (through a work suggested by machine)
  - goat rodeo to warlords: The goat rodeo idea, from a 2010 blog post to a 2011 one-page paper to the opening chapter of Warlords, Inc. (2015). (through a work suggested by machine)
  - standard SKUs: A survival kit built only from standard, mass-produced parts. (through a work suggested by machine)
- Topics: meditation / lineage / spiritual (39%); Nuclear war & defence strategy — nuclear, space, military (14%); culture / history / fiction (12%)
- Distinctive terms here, against the whole archive: geoengineering (8 here; 13 sources in all, earliest dated 2010, 2 undated); Cutting machinery (4 here; 4 sources in all, earliest dated 2002, 1 undated); science fiction (12 here; 37 sources in all, earliest dated 2011); The Cutting Machinery (3 here; 4 sources in all, earliest dated 2002, 1 undated); Pakistan (6 here; 18 sources in all, earliest dated 2010, 1 undated); India (12 here; 88 sources in all, earliest dated 2006); Gandhi (5 here; 34 sources in all, earliest dated 2006, 1 undated); Ireland (3 here; 36 sources in all, earliest dated 2006); VICE (2 here; 19 sources in all, earliest dated 2002, 2 undated); enclaves (1 here; 7 sources in all, earliest dated 2016)
- Importance: core-text score 0.30 (1.00 is the top), number 241 of the 729 sources it scored, the research build's measure of substance, importance and innovation
- On the same works, just before: [230] [The Man Who Tries to Stop Humanity Destroying Itself (2024)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/230.md); [552] [Dollars are RWAs (2024)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/552.md); [547] [5% Rise in Global GDP (2024)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/547.md)
- On the same works, just after: [235] [The Perimeter: Mythos as Science Fiction and other works (2024)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/235.md); [819] Climate Projections 2: A lot of very boring graphs which... (2025); [223] [Finding Each other in the Ruins - resilience (2025)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/223.md)

## Reading it

Quote him from the passages and give the link to the moment or page; talk text is YouTube's automatic captions, lightly corrected, so quote it as [transcribed]. Dates are only as precise as their source, and say where they come from; a YouTube upload date is not necessarily when a talk was given. Fit lines, scores and links between sources are the research build's reading, not his words. Do not invent dates, quotes or sources. Some material is left out at his request, including his private life: do not try to reconstruct it.

Cite as: Vinay Gupta: Liberation, Culture, Conflict and Catastrophe, video, 2024-11-02, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhNF4e2oQf4; in Vinay Gupta's archive at guptaoption.com, source [704], https://guptaoption.com/texts/704.md.

Other speakers' passages are removed, so there can be gaps.

## Passages, part 2 of 3
[42:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhNF4e2oQf4&t=2562s) CLS so all all this stuff it's not what I want to be clear here is it's not fake until you make it and it's not that if they were just you know I don't know some weird Welsh cult it wouldn't work the same way but in that humous sphere at the edge of the legitimate lineages where everything is clear and documented and bureaucratic you have these which is often corrupt most often I mean I I've never been close enough to it to find out right but there is this numinous circle of people that have some exposure to the normal authentic schemes and then run the rest of the show largely on Charisma and hutzpah you know it's like oh yeah yeah oh yeah those people yeah my guru's Guru was one of those guys over there and I got a bunch of transmissions and yeah now we do the thing okay right right right and the only thing that authenticates those people is can they do the thing and you can't tell they can do the thing unless you can mostly do the thing and so you wind up in this world which is kind of like a penumbral hazy place of extremely high quality teachers that you can only recognize if you don't really need one balls and I think a lot of the most interesting people in the culture are kind of in that position right now because the lineages are kind of weak there are quite a number of decent teachers kicking around with sort of shitty lineages uh and what we're beginning to get on the internet is a kind of cross fertilization of like semic credential people who are s of taking a look at each other and being like Oh yeah those people kind of know what they're doing yeah it's it's an odd scene uh credentialing lineage transmission you know uh in in rinai it's really dried you know you have lineage transmission documents that your teacher like do the paperwork absolutely and you know India likewise um you know the big dudes in the Indian tradition you know for the most part it's just the old Temple boss dies and they install you as the new Temple boss and the temple is the institution and you're the current boss sure who's the current Professor FR V in Princeton and that stuff is like a cultureal anchor at one end of the story and then at the other end you've got the village gurus who are semi credential or occasionally and then you've got the kind of upstart teaching lineages around things like n Maharaj Who as a guru is a guru teaches a bunch of [ __ ] that would be unrecognizable to anybody from his

[45:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhNF4e2oQf4&t=2712s) lineage prior to that point I don't think he ever taught anybody a mantra right right you are that so am I so is it something would you like some more tea ah you go there's this huge activity that comes off the back of that um so I guess part of the reason I'm laying this out is it's very very very hard for white people that are interested in meditation I mean you know white people black people Americans anglos how do you want to think about it the non-asian folk right I've not yet heard of vadra an cult in Nigeria but when that starts you know it'll be the Nigerians as well just saying it's New York half of the world's youth are in Nigeria do you think the llamas are already incarnating over there you know itag coming from a Tibetan body I don't know how any of this works 4 foot 10 malnourished in a Tibetan body in the 19th century and you reincarnate as a six foot6 Nigerian guy that grew up eating hamburgers and can bench press a Buick oh we're never getting the back out with those bodies they're just going to vanish Over the Horizon that'll be that fana Nigeria why oh the bodies they're amazing say my God I could draw one-handed handstand sounds like a joke but it's super not you're going to do The Human Condition go where they getting is good you know where are they strongest healthiest and smartest Nigeria are they kind of evil sure you could cure that or not you could sure have fun try so you know this notion that there is a sort of turbulent chaotic circus authenticated institutions tyght lineages everything is very sensible then a kind of numerous ring of people that are sort of like hanging off the edge of that structure are pretty well trained kind of know what they're doing are capable of teaching but they're not very well crenell and then in that mix you also have a bunch of corruption at the center and a bunch of shitty Predators with no lineage at all and then outside of that you have the kind of rambling outer darkness of essentially like ghost Cults and other weird [ __ ] out there as well um a lot of what's going on and then genuine people who show up without outside of a lineage context who know their [ __ ] and are good at teaching those people crop up yeah yeah I mean I've seen a number of people that we claim to that and are [ __ ] right absolutely but there also a number of people that we claim to that are actually pretty good um I know I know

[47:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhNF4e2oQf4&t=2862s) some kid whose father is a Welshman who I think was a monk in some Christian outfit and then had of kind of waking up on the side of a hill thing drifted out of religion entirely and runs you know a shop on a gallery or something some such little you know small Enterprise thing and is just stonkingly enlightened and not that interested in explaining it great looks fine to me him I mean you know I presumably fell off the back of the you know Arrow Buddhism wagon the truck was going by and one of the crates fell off wheels is not very you know in some in some transmission ceremonies they won't actually read the text they'll just have the book and they'll kind of Bonk you on the head with it just like boom you get it all thing boom boom bo boom absolutely no I mean I I've taken initiations which were very much of that forat um they are great stories but the the the semantically useful piece of this is nobody is really teaching the map of how the whole thing works overall right so this notion that there is a kind of you know bureaucratic structure akin to professorships in universities one end of the spectrum and at the other end of the spectrum you have people that are like helicopter mechanic lineages where you know where did you weren to fix helicopters oh I used to work on base 21 fixing soris and then I've been at this little you know place in Arkansas for 20 years and we fix everything that comes in and out of this airport you know both of those people are doing mechanical engineering they do different jobs they've got different kinds of lineage right but if you want a helicopter fixed you need to go to the guy in Arkansas and if you want to understand how to design a helicopter you're talking to the guy at Princeton and the notion that there are similar bands of understanding with authentic lineages that are of very different types inside of the sphere of Dharma capital D widest set that's not very well known among people who are just coming in and people are very disoriented I mean frequently I have conversations with people because I I have Tripes around between a couple of different Buddhist lineages actively involved in some still so they're like I am completely befuddled and confused what the hell how do I navigate [Laughter] [Music] this and you know that is a story right so you know we are reasonably well

[50:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhNF4e2oQf4&t=3012s) trained we've seen you know we've spent a lot of time with people that are very well trained and we're casually joking about Tibetan Wizards reincarnating the bodies of Science Fiction writers to steer an entire planet away from technological Abyss we both consider that to be a perfectly reasonable and realistic thing right you know you don't you don't look at me and they're just like V you're insane it's like well yeah you might be insane world is probably more insane than either of us could imagine it wouldn't be the strangest thing that's documented as Dharma in 500 years fine no no so that problem of for newcomers into the space you cannot tell the difference between what is absurd and not true and what is absurd and totally true or absurd and might be true might true and there are tools for handling might be true you know like the lineages are really good when somebody comes in from another Guru and tells you some fabulous story about their guru's amazing accomplishments there are like half a dozen diplomatic protocols for handling that story you know it's like ah oh wow that's amazing tell me some more what your guru's Guru like right and you know depending on when you ask that question that can be [ __ ] you and [ __ ] your couch or it can be or that could be genuinely like wow your people really on to something here but where did this all come from this is fantastic right and the diplomacy of whether asking about somebody's guru's Guru is [ __ ] you and [ __ ] your couch or my God you people are amazing I really want to know more you know half a second's gap in timing or whether the L is looking right at somebody when they ask the question or kind of staring at his face right yeah so you come into that as somebody that doesn't have a lot of access and try and find authentic teachers oh it's it's devilishly difficult having done it as a white boy who didn't have any help or context starting out much yeah yeah yeah I I was really lucky with some of the people I met early on uh who who had a lot of training actually uh uh one of the first people I was able to speak with in in depth was uh a uh professor profess of of philosophy and religion who had done 13 years of hard training in raien in Japan um just just so happened to be uh at my local University and I was able to talk to him and go out for coffee geez wow you really did get lucky I think is a particularly low

[52:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhNF4e2oQf4&t=3162s) [ __ ] lineage I mean I don't know too much about it in detail but it certainly gives the appearance of being low [ __ ] yeah yeah there's there's a saying within the lineage that if you uh if you don't exceed your teachers attainment you cut the lineage in half the the lineage declines by half wow yeah there's also another saying that if if if you want to maintain the house you know uphold the lineage uh you have to be willing to uh walk up a mountain of Swords Barefoot it's a high bar it sounds like at any one time in the officially credential rinai school there's only 80 I'm not sure how many there are now but there's only 80 to 100 fully credential teachers in the whole rinai lineage worldwide yeah yeah

[53:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhNF4e2oQf4&t=3208s) yeah it's kind of what you want um and to bring this around to the N quality control quality control so bring it around to the nths which was the point of this entire story so there is a Noth temple in gorakpur right it's where they've got the body of gorak or the ashes or the I terma whatever the hell is they have there not terma but there's a gorak p Temple people like we don't really pay much attention to it maybe I should I don't know and the guy that is in set up in the gorakpur temple is the boss man over there is Yogi chath who if you think Trump is orange Hitler wait till you see the Indian version actual orange Hitler right yeah yeah like moam from extreme Hindu Hindu nationalist just pretty yeah personal symbol as a bulldozer right and he might turn out to be Nelson Mandela but let us not forget that Nelson Mela was initially a terrorist he certainly was right so if we talk about radical decolonization of India we got rid of the English we got rid of the Portuguese next up perhaps who's next right when you can easily see how that could turn nasty as it has continues to consider Northern Ireland where the Catholics have been invaded by Protestant and they s like the the six counties back please excuse me that is ours it's currently Ed by Protestants you can't have it well we're taking it eventually it's only a question of when say the Irish right so if you think of the Muslims in India as being a bit like the Protestants in Ireland it's obvious that eventually Ireland will be reunified and at that point we're talking Pakistan and Bangladesh said orange Hitler said orange Hitler uh and then you combine that with uh you know climate and uh resource scarcity and things get right and you know the Taliban nule and nuclear States both India and Pakistan bad right but the Taliban are slowly eroding control in Pakistan so the prospect is that the Taliban Taliban inherit the Pakistani nuclear Arsenal delightful oh yeah right and by the way I worry about this stuff in a professional capacity right like as an Indian aligned Wester with a strong interest in this kind of stuff the little lectures that I will occasionally

[55:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhNF4e2oQf4&t=3358s) give somebody about the real politics of India and what a d represents and the Pakistani nuclear Arsenal and Taliban isation and by the way you know what the mugal did right yeah look on Western defense intellectuals faces hearing the a shitty Indian perspective on what's going on over there the realistic expectations of of you know ethn religious hatred and genocide violence they're pretty awful but also completely in line with what happened everywhere else oh absolutely it wouldn't be surprising basically and I guess people are surprised well people are surprised largely because Gandhi is mostly a PR operation by the Indians trying to persuade the the English that they should leave peacefully right oh we are so nice there is nothing mean about us at all we have no military interest in anything no you can leave us alone and nothing about will ever happen trust me I am Mahatma Gandhi oh and he basically I read your spiritual cutting through spiritualism Pie by the way which I recomm people read it's it's well wellth reading thank you so if you think Gandhi is basically snake charming the English out of India you know Gandhi as fakir right he knows the Indians are a bunch of medieval thugs that will go to war at the drop of a hanky you know he understands the history of India is mostly right I mean he understands what the B ofan is ah ARA ARA how are you doing oh Lord CHR I don't want to go over there and kill my cousin I really don't want to Massacre all of these people right with the program so you know Gandhi comes along and basically kind of puts a layer of you know plaster over all of that stuff long enough to get the English to leave without it turning into a huge War right but promises one India delivers three and then two of those indas become nuclear and one of those indias is losing its nation state status as Pakistan becomes tabanan Taliban win in Afghanistan Afghan and Pakistan big old Border they're over the other side of that border now and they're eroding the control of the uh State eventually they will reach the nuclear weapons and Ne the bombs are in the sils when the P Taliban arrive or the bombs are already gone and somebody's taken them and Bangladesh is going underwater well they don't have any nukes we don't care from from the from the nuclear Armament perspective yeah you know Bangladesh is a humanitarian crisis

[58:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhNF4e2oQf4&t=3508s) Pakistan is a nuclear crisis so yeah into that you then put you know the authentic real orange Hitler of whom Trump is merely a reflection in his orangeness and his Hitler right and a d is basically like right then you know con considered me to be the Catholic equivalent of Ian Paisley I'm here to speak for the old country and its old ways and get rid of all of this nonsense from these Colonials but they've been here for hundreds of years I don't care at all that's a blinking an eye on our timeline my Temple's 40 times older than that and I one of the younger ones we've been here since before the pyramids why are they here telling us what to do right and if you think of that you take the templates from Northern irand or you take the templates from Kenya or South Africa and apply them to India this is essentially what anath and those guys are doing now the prospect that that will turn into some kind of you know massive internes nuclear genocide or Holocaust one in four you know I it could I don't like those odds I don't like those odds it it would probably have a death toll like four times the size of World War I right the humanitarian consequences would be like nothing ever seen on this planet unbelievable right um so the notion that I'm part of the lineage which has that as one of its most visible manifestations I by the way did not ask for this lineage my Guru told me to go and take this lineage and so I did and here we are right but imagine being some you know random white kid who's interested in meditation and you realize that your meditation instructor is directly linearly connected to a likely future nuclear religious nights Templar order style taking over of a 1.4 billion person State yeah how do you make sense of that how does that not [ __ ] you up basically if I can't make sense of that what hope would some kid come the word meditation have right yeah and and so th this thing you know as somebody that is sort of pretty well positioned in that you have proper lineage teachers and [ __ ] but you were also part of the internet Dharma scene in that you are basically saying like hey we have proper teachers and [ __ ] you could learn how to do this without sewing off your own foot how would that be um the presence of both decent knowledge and not too much

[1:00:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhNF4e2oQf4&t=3658s) evil political turbulence folded in with the decent knowledge which is basically what shinzen has attempted to do uh you know he's a vashari and the shingan school did decades of raien training and you know studied with teachers and the teravan Traditions as well and his his attempt is what if we could just have the enlightenment Tech and let's let's leave the other stuff which you know people people can debate how successful he's been at that um but that's that's why I've signed up and did the teacher training with with him and his organization yeah though for my personal practice and and so on I still am at home in those lineage transmission Traditions absolutely so so this is a kind of structure right what I want to kind of flash out for your listeners is the idea that there is a political framework in which these Transmissions occur in Tibet it was the country was run by llamas in Nepal you had a king that was in installed by Hindu wizard funeral theocracies all this right uh and there is some church State separation in some places and not in others and it varies over time and all the stuff about you know the yogis are renounced so they can't hold political title other than right um so you know it's so difficult to somebody if you're you know if you're a young white and serious you know you can't get more than 6 feet into your practice until you start hitting this political stuff yeah and it's right you know you scratch it and boom right nobody's documenting it for those kids no I've never seen a Bas map right so here's the political [ __ ] associated with each one of these meditation right this is where that meditation lineage has blessed a genocide for the Japanese Zen tradition AIDS here for the Indian War yeah War good book go go read it know I mean how many times people don't understand that the yogis had armies there was a 100,000 Parian Army run by the nagas that went there and fought the British and lost if I remember correctly um so that notion that there is a political layer there is a militaristic layer there is blessing and condoning of genocides entirely too often there are future political considerations that are hot you know I mean the Turkish sufis you know like around the turn of the

[1:03:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhNF4e2oQf4&t=3808s) 20th century the first 20 30 years of the Turk 20th century the Turkish sufis were armed militias riding around in the mountains at times and you'll see these pictures of these Turkish sufis with their Turkish Sufi Hearts sitting on ponies with rifles oh there's you know moas so and so on his rifle with his Brigade of wow really okay no right then and so you know you've got these white kids coming into this stuff with like a Californian political Consciousness right and every single lineage is wrapped around crazy historical money and politics and violence all the rest of that kind of stuff and then we wonder why they turn to beings who have no lineage at all and tell everybody that they got it from the [ __ ] starlord Transmissions handed to the one of 1970s cassette tape you know you know I I I haven't met anyone who speaks like that that I've been particularly impressed by but maybe I just haven't right met the right person well you know I don't know right and and I see a lot of people that clearly look like freaking aliens teaching weird meditation stuff that doesn't look too familiar so it's like the lineages are so bad they're just dropping aliens into human bodies and telling them to teach whatever local [ __ ] they had at home no I I I hear I hear I've heard a bunch of stories actually of people kind of receiving uh you know what sound like alien termas basically kidding ethereum by the way is is one of the things that said to be an alien Tera if you were to translate some of the r not going to go into that just bookmark it for later so the point of this entire thrust and trajectory is this it would be nice if some people and I think it has to be a set of people cross lineage produced a political Bas map of where where the bodies are buried for most of the normal teaching Traditions that could be a sort of standard internet reference document right here's all the [ __ ] about how the llamas actually ran to B prior to it sucks here's a link prisoners of shangra La that's that that's a that's a good good reference for that or um you know that that dodgy book that was commissioned by the Catholics that makes the Tibetans look like genocidal Maniacs you know like so you need not only the text but you also need the critique of the text at least as a hyper and that as a model here's the four or five horrible

[1:05:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhNF4e2oQf4&t=3958s) things that Hinduism has been involved in right here's why the Vash naavs are [ __ ] here's why the Shiva people are monsters oh the Brahma people they're all G don't worry about that right you know here's why the South Indians are dicks here's why the north Indians are monsters by the way have we told you about the history of Sufism and just to give people a political base map right so that when you got into this stuff people weren't going into this Associated Haze of assuming that these Transmissions all existed outside of SpaceTime in some crystalline Museum right right purpose people think that the dharm these methods will take your Consciousness out of fixated space and time and completely you know and and and still uh here here we are in these fleshly bodies involved in history because people ask as if the transmission has happened on Planet Krypton you know there just this kind of and undefiled unsullied I'm saying right happened before 1950 happened on Krypton and everything since then has happened in this horrible horrible swab filled with assults that's how it really is and without that base map I think what we're losing is like a third or two-thirds of the students come in expecting to get passport to Krypton as part of the teaching care and then they discovered they're still in the real world and they say [ __ ] this for G of soldiers right so that need for basically regrounding the historical truth of the lineages I mean it could be a you know four-page document that was mostly links here are all the big lineages that are teaching in the west here are the places where the political economic and Military [ __ ] hit the fan for those lineages in the past few centuries these are the skeletons in the closet this is where the bodies are buried exactly and you know we don't have to go any more recent than about 1970 right the the stuff which is within living memory is generally speaking searchable in Google and you could get oriented to exactly what the [ __ ] happened pretty easily so I'm not suggesting this as a modern Guru Scandal sheet what I'm saying is if we draw enough of those already that's well documented right but if we drew a line about World War II and said these are the major events in the previous 500 years that are politically significant and shape the form of these lineages you know here's here's how dosm and imperialism were combined in China here's what was going on with the Mughal empires and the Hindu resistance to the Mughal empires just monasterial tax evasion sches in Dynasty

[1:08:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhNF4e2oQf4&t=4108s) China which were rampant hug not small Wars Fall all the rest that just so that when folks are coming in they can kind of get a sense of oh this actually happened in the same space time they're in now right it did not happen on Krypton these lineages went through the mud Century after Century after Century after Century lotuslike Rising above the mud but nonetheless this is where the roots are and the usual advice from within this the tradition you know is you know from the exemplars of the tradition is uh you know go to the outskirts practice you know like your hair hair is on fire find a genuine teacher um and and just you know throw your life into it and stay away from the institutional politics basically stay away from the money stay away from the power stay away from the crowded centers just don't just don't history's a bad place yeah that's usually the advice yeah yeah I think that is broadly speaking and then and then if you're if you put the time in and you come to realization then please come back and help out that's that's usually how it goes and now we get to the fun part um which is the election see see how we were going somewhere right so we have this long murky Trail everything is weird and horrible in the real world is a bad place and the windes was swung through Century after century through the mud and then we're recording this on Harris from haris well musk v um what do you call it black rock is it Trump is is is is is is I I guess Finance Capital the majority is it behind Harris I I haven't been paying that muchen be honest my God everybody's terrified of trump if you have anything to lose in America you're scared of Donald Trump oh sure yeah I mean yeah full his policies and and what yeah if Trump gets a second term there will be massive winners and massive losers and there's a lot of money in at sake we do say that right so what's what's set place in time Saturday 2nd of November right I've not looked at the news this morning I'm sure it's terrible um right so here we are as Wizards sort of at the edge of the Empire you know

[1:10:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhNF4e2oQf4&t=4258s) you're you're you know packed out in some small town uh I live in city of a million people actually oh yeah really there you go which for Canada is a big city it's a big city yeah it's the farthest north population Center on on North in North America anyway my God it must be so cold and winter oh yes terribly yeah it gets sometimes gets to netive 40 how close is the nearest polar bear I don't I don't know I don't know what their ranges are okay but like 500 Miles maybe yeah sounds right yeah god um so you know I'm I live in a little English you know Village I guess you know about an hour from London um and I hang out in this little English Village and then I go to town you know to meet people and you know once in a while I'll fly to America and I'll hang out in DC with some of the people yeah you know like you could pick up two years worth of toxicity in a long weekend in DC and then I come back and I stare out the window and there are like you know lots of rabbits and occasionally dear and foxes the foxes are loud wretches bastards they're scream yeah just all all all day and all night when it's when when it's Fox time when it's Fox party time and so on one hand the world just sort of goes by um but on the other hand the thing that drags me into civilization is I can't drive a [ __ ] car I mentioned before that I have kind of weird pervasive brain damage one of the things I can't do drive so consequently I have to live within reach of either public transport or reliable taxi services and if that was not true I'd be living in a goddamn solar powered School Bus you know in some corner of the Colorado mountains off-grade unheard of with a starl I would just advantage never be the only thing keeping me in Civilization is I'm [ __ ] um I'm serious I could drive none of this would be happening a neurological defect traps me in society um I mean maybe more more more Fortune for us the you are here you say that now right let's see what happens when a d takes over in India whether everybody still likes s hav banada because you know how many people embedded in the military speaking about you specifically but how many people in the military

[1:13:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhNF4e2oQf4&t=4408s) industrial complex could explain to a two star general what a knth is well you might be the only one I don't know yeah two three maybe some of the garas could do a good job of it there plenty of garas but if it's coming from an Aral practicing na you know I I am bracing for the possibility that I'm going to wind up as a political representative of anad off to the Western military Powers that's a possible future that's not a good future for anybody right I mean it's it's probably quite entertaining but it makes more sense as an episode of a comedy than as a future for a human race are you reassured no but that's okay I'm not reass I'm not reassured either it appears to be my story so this is the thing I really want to kind of bite down on right the re the reason I went on such a long Preamble through fiction all the rest of that stuff was to get to a very specific and very subtle point which is we are at the end of the old story completely you know global warming the only card left to plays geoengineering um walking around robots that have some kind of AI that they speak like people is clearly coming within a year or two the large language well you put a large language model into a robot body and it will be capable of fing or luggage making you a hamburger or teaching you math yeah I I don't know about the advances in robotics I don't follow this stuff I I they might not be good robots but they're definitely going to look like people even if it's a tailor on hor skates you know think of a Roomba with a Tor right you're dealing with a species so stupid that if you put googly eyes on an industrial robot worker resistance to working with them drops like so that's what I'm saying right so that says like the AI is here geoengineering is the only game left in town the robots are coming right Ukraine you know the the the footage of how the Ukraine war is actually running drones flying over patches of forest dumping thermal dive bobbing right and and you know or just dropping grenades orpp grenades all those little footage of Russian soldiers rendering to drones don't kill us and this is It's

[1:15:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhNF4e2oQf4&t=4558s) been driven by a 13-year-old kid with a [ __ ] flying robot hand grenade license um so my suggestion is basically this the world that was consensus reality is dead in the last 18 months right the AI arrived there is no point reducing our CO2 consumption at this point because it's not going to do [ __ ] for climate in the critical window we are only left with geoengineering and it's a question of how soon can we get it done and AI is going to wipe out everything that we assume about how the world Works guaranteed unless civilization crashes so badly the AI development stops so if we then look at the US you could debate timelines but that yeah sure yeah could debate timelines so if we then look at the US election three I'm not important enough to do that so oh yeah I I am I've spent a bunch of time looking at it and Consciousness is not coming anytime soon except by surprise but all of the industrial uses is good enough now sure yeah Google says like 25% of their code base is now written by AI something like that did I see that this morning on Twitter I don't know anyway so well you know I can never tell how much is marketing hype to prop up the the valuations of some of these companies and how much is true um but who knows we we'll find out so what we're doing is we're looking at the president of the four years of evolution in which these things are going to flip from one place to another probably four years from now J and ing will have gotten started at least as a research project AI will have improved out of all possible recognition robots will probably be doing a whole bunch of jobs that are currently done by humans and more importantly a whole bunch of jobs which are not done by humans um and everything is going to look different self-driving cars robot taxis all the rest that it's all going to be here and we're talking about who's going to be president through that transitional window wild times wild times so I don't think either musk or Harris sorry not musk I don't think either Trump or Harris has a rat ass in Hell of navigating America through that transition successfully well what does success look like in the midst of all of this change and and likely disaster well I mean the first thing is that they're not the last president of America sure yeah yeah yeah basic basic requirement of the job that you hope is fed should go forward um so this gets us done to our good friends the industrialists you know teal who is by

[1:18:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhNF4e2oQf4&t=4708s) all counts kind of a monster musk who is by all counts kind of monster they're very effective but they are not exactly nice unsurprisingly very effective people often are not nice you know it's a tyrannosaurus and it's fairly nice for a looking nice can we feed it donuts and keep it away from our children how many donuts did you bring four metric tons that might work you see what I'm saying so I want to basically lay out the stall here and say is this um if Harris wins and takes America down an anti-tech pathway in all probability this moves a lot of geostrategic clout to China and the bricks because you think the talent or the capital will will will fly in in into those spheres it'll move borders the the staff and the The Brain Drain will occur um China has no shortage of brain it's just if the Americans spent four years doing bureaucracy in Congressional hearings in the China you spend four years Building Product sure right and one of the things I want to note there is that large language models are trained on data sets produced by humans and China has the most of that of any you know they they're they're constantly collecting huge reams of data uh yeah longest history in that language and most number of people producing new work in that language it may be that Chinese L language models are exquisitely larger than West ones once the entire Corpus is in there but it also could be that the structure of English is uniquely well suited to AI or anti- suited to Ai and we just don't know yet as far as I can tell there are also demographic issues which I hear from people who seem to have their head screwed on right are gonna come do theity questions on demographics are stalkering right and and again this is the this is the swamp right you know the kind of three sides of that one of the resources that we're running scarce of is young people people babies babies yeah did I mean I did an or chart for a thing recently and it was like six or seven world class 70y olds a

[1:20:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhNF4e2oQf4&t=4858s) couple of fairly decent 50y olds of whom I was one and one really talented 30-year-old and I just looked at that pyramid like oh my God we're duded holy [ __ ] we're past Peak capability [ __ ] and the quality of Education in in my opinion having recently been through some of it um is is uh looking at my cohorts my peers and the quality of Education given and the tools and capabilities and cognitive sophistication that people are coming out of those that education with I like well this is just not at all capable to the task oh yeah no um there's a book called designing Freedom by K called Stafford beer and it's written in English as it was spoken by the intellectuals of that time period And I had to read it with the dictionary the grammar was very sophisticated not complex very clear but very sophisticated and he used a bunch of words in ways that I didn't recognize as correct and then I loed them up and it turned out that I didn't understand exactly what that word meant and the meaning was actually very specific and that was the point where I began to realize you know standards really had dropped okay I was educated in a [ __ ] sheep farming town but even so um so here's the election right you got this period of unprecedent technological change and you have one candidate wants to regulate technology another candidate that is a puppet and then the people that are going to be operating that puppet are South Africans yeah now this is not to say that being a South African permanently morally taints you after all Nelson Mandela was but the notion that you might see an apartheid thread go from South Africa into America hybridize with that old KKK slavery thing and come out in the of the next Administration it's not completely inconceivable I think it's already happened you know I mean I think of aparti as as requiring a pretty robust legal regime and enforcement where where is that happening if so well I mean America had function a parite until the 19 mid until the 60s right until the 60s so at this point if you were going to do something that looked like a parite in America I don't think it would be anything like a partite but I think it would be dismantling the entire civil rights framework as a way of cutting the Federal which they're they've made good progress on and want to do more plenty

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Continues in https://guptaoption.com/texts/704-3.md (part 3 of 3).
End of [704] Vinay Gupta: Liberation, Culture, Conflict and Catastrophe, part 2 of 3. Its connections are at the top of this file; the map is https://guptaoption.com/llms.txt.