# Vinay Gupta - Resilience Guru | London Real (part 1 of 3)

> One source from the archive of Vinay Gupta's work at guptaoption.com, as plain text for AI agents: [689], part 1 of 3. Vinay Gupta, exponential humanitarian. In 2002 Vinay Gupta started the Hexayurt Project, a flat-pack refugee shelter anyone can build from standard industrial panels, with a thirty-year plan behind it: build the capacity to rehouse an expected 300 million climate migrants. Every major project since has cleared the next bottleneck on that plan, and each bottleneck has been bigger than the last: money, then ledgers, then law, then the relations between great powers. Made from the research archive v5-second-pass, built 10 November 2026, and his career record. The map of the whole archive is https://guptaoption.com/llms.txt, and any source [id] is at https://guptaoption.com/texts/<id>.md. This file's connections are below, then his passages.

## Where this source sits

- Source: video, 2014-02-02 (YouTube upload date), https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rys_saLiDA. Text: automatic captions, partly corrected
- On the plan's timeline (by date, not by subject): after the money step (Global Village Development Bank, 2009), before the ledgers step (Ethereum launch, 2015).
- How it fits the plan (the research build's reading): Popular statement of life support at planetary scale and its timeline.
- Career works it belongs to:
  - SCIM / INAM (2009): Simple Critical Infrastructure Maps: 18 human needs across 7 scales, from the individual to the world.
  - FluSCIM (2010): Another author's application of the SCIM framework to pandemic flu.
  - Municipal Administration of Cities in Crisis (2013): UCL Institute for Security and Resilience Studies paper drawing lessons for city governments from...
  - The Living City (2009): A Buttered Side Down talk to the engineering firm Arup, with Mike Bennett: how cities learned to beat... (suggested by machine)
  - The New Economy: out of money, out of time, but not out of ideas (2010): One-page paper: the richest fifth are eating the planet, so the next economy has to be at peace with other... (suggested by machine)
  - The Big Deal (2011): Four-essay blog series arguing that government has hit hard limits, so civil society, working with... (suggested by machine)
- Threads (lines of work through his career) it is part of:
  - STAR-TIDES: The National Defense University project and the papers around it.
  - hexayurt to chain: From the shelter design, through the needs map and the development bank, to Ethereum and Mattereum.
  - nuclear / panflu: Pandemic, evacuation and rehousing plans.
  - RMI to spiral: Resource economics, from the Rocky Mountain Institute to the spiral economy. (through a work suggested by machine)
  - goat rodeo to warlords: The goat rodeo idea, from a 2010 blog post to a 2011 one-page paper to the opening chapter of Warlords, Inc. (2015). (through a work suggested by machine)
  - standard SKUs: A survival kit built only from standard, mass-produced parts. (through a work suggested by machine)
- Topics: flu / infection / risk (12%)
- Distinctive terms here, against the whole archive: London Real (6 here; 6 sources in all, earliest dated 2014); Stacktivism (5 here; 7 sources in all, earliest dated 2013); too hot (8 here; 42 sources in all, earliest dated 2008, 6 undated); nanomaterials (2 here; 3 sources in all, earliest dated 2013); too cold (7 here; 40 sources in all, earliest dated 2008, 7 undated); critical infrastructure (8 here; 54 sources in all, earliest dated 2006, 7 undated); basic income (4 here; 21 sources in all, earliest dated 2014); refugee camps (5 here; 37 sources in all, earliest dated 2007, 1 undated); pandemic flu (4 here; 32 sources in all, earliest dated 2002, 1 undated); refugees (7 here; 84 sources in all, earliest dated 2002, 3 undated)
- The earliest dated source in this archive for (undated sources may be earlier): Mars; basic income; rich data; accredited investors
- Importance: core-text score 0.53 (1.00 is the top), number 65 of the 729 sources it scored, the research build's measure of substance, importance and innovation
- Related sources:
  - [250] [Through the Looking Glass - Vinay Gupta on systemic... (2010)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/250.md): same career work: SCIM / INAM
  - [322] [Vinay Gupta at the Athens Hackerspace, 2012 September 2 (2012)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/322.md): same career work: SCIM / INAM
- On the same works, just before: [754] [Vinay Gupta shares his vision of a rural future (2013)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/754.md); [317] [Vinay Gupta (@leashless) of Hexayurt Project at the... (2013)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/317.md); [697] [Vinay Gupta - Resilience Guru - TRAILER | London Real (2014)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/697.md)
- On the same works, just after: [701] [Vinay Gupta - Gun Control Precedes Genocide | London Real (2014)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/701.md); [696] [Vinay Gupta - Pandemic means Death? | London Real (2014)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/696.md); [700] [Vinay Gupta - Basic Income | London Real (2014)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/700.md)

## Reading it

Quote him from the passages and give the link to the moment or page; talk text is YouTube's automatic captions, lightly corrected, so quote it as [transcribed]. Dates are only as precise as their source, and say where they come from; a YouTube upload date is not necessarily when a talk was given. Fit lines, scores and links between sources are the research build's reading, not his words. Do not invent dates, quotes or sources. Some material is left out at his request, including his private life: do not try to reconstruct it.

Cite as: Vinay Gupta - Resilience Guru | London Real, video, 2014-02-02, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rys_saLiDA; in Vinay Gupta's archive at guptaoption.com, source [689], https://guptaoption.com/texts/689.md.

Other speakers' passages are removed, so there can be gaps.

## Passages, part 1 of 3
[0:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rys_saLiDA&t=0s) [Music] this week on London re we have Global resilience Guru Vinay Gupta what are the things that will kill you right you could get too hot too cold hungry thirsty you could get ill or you could get injured other than that you're not going to die except of old age and that's not our problem two kinds of threats threat number one the more you know the less afraid you are threat kind two the more you know the more afraid you are pandemic flu is type two the more knowledgeable people get the more scared they are so I would say that Bitcoin is probably going to turn out to be the Myspace of digital currencies bitcoin's enemy is not the state bitcoin's enemy is its successors so for people that are unserved by the state and unserved by the system things like Bitcoin are potentially huge breakthroughs London real presents Vinay Gupta resilience Guru the thing about libertarianism is it's one of the few political philosophies that is genuinely intellectually defensible welcome back to London real I'm coming at you from Liverpool Street Station uh which is right here in the city of London one of my first great memories of this city uh some 17 years ago uh was right here where I used to uh work and uh coming here as a Yankee from New York City uh it always brings back great memories coming here and uh hopefully I'm not going to get arrested uh like I've almost been at some other stations uh namely when I was picking up Jack Fresco from waterl they almost cuffed me and stuffed me but uh that's another story uh this week on the show we have Mr Vinay Gupta and uh this guy is a resilience Guru now what the hell does that mean uh that's a great question Brian uh I'm not even quite sure what that means uhoh we're seeing some police on my left side um and what this guy does is he plans for disasters in the future so he makes us be aware of what we do when there is a pandemic or what we do when there's an earthquake or what we do when things turn into a war zone and uh he is a guy that's all about kind of planning on a macro basis and on a macro level and uh on top of that he also is the creator of the hexayurts and you'll see on the table in front of me he's got one of his hexayurt Ys and uh he had just built it in my kitchen no joke with like a knife and uh it's basically a structure that he thinks can end um uh

[2:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rys_saLiDA&t=150s) all future housing problems especially for uh people that are poor or just don't have access to a lot of materials and he's got a good point there um and vet isn't just this stuff he's also much more he's a he's an economist a historian and uh quite an economic scholar as well and he has a really interesting perspective on the financial crisis on bitcoin and uh we talked about pretty much everything so uh it was very cool to sit down with him he's got an Indian last name and and an Irish accent so uh go figure that out um and he was uh he was a lot of fun so uh now we're out here on Bishop gate you can see uh the Heron Tower behind me this used to be uh where one of the uh walls of the city of London was and it was Bishop's gate as in where uh I think potentially the Bishops would walk in uh but now it's basically just uh Finance guys and hopefully I won't bump into any of my old colleagues here uh if I do they get really jealous about what I'm doing and I don't want to make them feel bad so uh there you go we are sponsored by the folks at bulletproof and uh if you're not aware uh these are the guys that uh create a coffee that's uh free of molds and toxins uh what we do is you take that coffee you mix it in uh with grass-fed butter and uh the MCT oil which is like the best of the coconut oil uh I brew it up serve it to my guest drink it myself every morning and uh it's a way a great way to stay sharp and to avoid all of those uh sugars and glutens that you usually uh stuff up in your Gob in the morning that you probably shouldn't so I love these guys uh they support the show in a big way and we got a whole series of sleep hacking videos are going to be coming you probably seen me tweet out some things that I've received from them I just got their sleep induction mat which is like an Acu pressure mat that you lay down on before you go to sleep I've been tracking my sleep every night via a sleep app and we're going to be talking all about how you can get better sleep stop being a tough guy with this 4our was asleep at night I mean who are you David Copperfield so there's no need for that so keep an eye out and if you want to check them out go to their blog which is bulletproof exa.com or go to upgraded self.com uh for more of their stuff so uh there you go always exciting stuff coming on up here we uh should have some interesting guests coming up I can't say their names uh I never believe they come on the show until it's in the can and posted on YouTube so uh I'll keep you in touch with them want to shout out to my man PES out in Tennessee he's booking

[5:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rys_saLiDA&t=300s) London real guests from Tennessee in United States so if he can do it you can do it uh if you want to help out send me an email Brian at londonreal.tv and uh help out in any way uh we're trying to take this to the next level and uh we're going to need your help to do so so uh there you go I'm going to leave you with uh the wonderful buildings of uh RBS one of the great uh financial institutions that might be taking your money they might not be and and uh now I leave you with a very interesting and fascinating Mr V Gupta okay cool um you ready yep okay here we go this is London re I am Brian Rose we are sponsored by the folks from Bulletproof Coffee today which is if you don't know uh coffee that's free of molds and toxins I mix that with grass-fed butter and some brain octane oil it is my breakfast in the morning uh it's a cool company these guys are biohackers they're always looking at at what makes us better as a human so uh please check them out you can click on any of the links here on the website uh where you're probably watching this video or go to bulletproof exa.com and uh thank you uh to them for uh supporting the show my guest today is Mr V Gupta who is an expert on resource scarcity infrastructure theory state failure Solutions and uh global system risks like uh poverty and the environmental crisis uh you work as a designer and model builder we got some on the table here uh you look for better solutions to these problems uh other than say centralization or War uh V welcome to London real hi it's good to be here thanks for being here you know I thought about you this weekend um funny enough because I was at home and our our water stopped you know and at first it's like okay there's no water in the tap and at first it's like okay there's no water we can get through this and then a little bit later I can't brush my teeth and then a little bit later nobody can use the bathroom and I'm always I was always thinking kind of a little doomsday scenario I'm the kind of guy that wants a pallet of food for a year maybe it's the American in me I don't know and uh I'm always talking to my girlfriend about this and she's always like that's ridiculous and and then by the next day you know the toilets are filling up and I'm like okay now this is a small scale but like I started to see what can happen when all these things uh in in the infrastructure of London that we assume will work stops working and I know you've talked a little bit about this in the past and I was just wondering if you could uh tell me should I have been worried should I have got a gun you know is is there is there anything that we should always be aware of like about

[7:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rys_saLiDA&t=450s) the resources around us when it comes to something like that ah sure um I mean so if London was just agricultural land right if it was just Fields like middle of Hampshire or middle of Iowa which it used to be before the Romans got here right okay right so the carrying capacity right the number of people that can live on that much land is about a tenth or a fifth of the number of people that live in London okay right because you know you need so much space to grow the food and you need so much space for people to move around and you need so much space for you know travel and water and all the rest of that stuff um so all the other people that are living in London aren't living on the land right they're supported by this network that brings food in that takes waste out that brings in the power right and that network is everywhere around us we take it totally for granted when it stops 80% of us die right if it stops and it never comes back and you stay in the city the carrying capacity will fall to the Natural capacity of the land which is about a fifth of what we have and what's the timeline for that that decay oh I don't know 20 years right okay I mean you know London being London um you know in in your unimaginable worst case scenario where the machine just stops you know you're not really going to freeze to death very easily you're surrounded by a green and pleasant land that you just walk out into true right you know in a in a proper like Disaster Movie scenario actually very few people die have you seen the movie Contagion no I didn't see cont okay well so that was the soda BG movie that was about you know the the pandemic and things like that but they showed like the breakdown where people can't get food anymore and people start going into into people's houses and it was just weird how you see it decay I remember watching hurricane Katrin quite closely and it was like 3 days later you had gangs rolling the streets okay maybe that was blown out of proportion a bit but is this something you think about from a modeling perspective sometimes oh God yeah sure I mean so the thing is that everybody talks about you know like there's three days of food in the city and you know this kind of stuff is that true yeah pretty much right I because if you think about it right go to your local store right there's food in there and then there's a little Warehouse out the back where they keep a few more things but they don't have much space every morning a truck comes from a bigger Warehouse the bigger Warehouse has maybe 3 5 days worth of food right there's a bit more sitting at the Docks and that's all there is in the supply chain that's it right what nobody ever mentions is that there's basically one cow for every three people in the UK sitting out moving on the land so you have a real problem you go you eat the cows just like our ancestors did anytime there's a crisis what do you do you eat the cows well you know this is really terrible winter I'm not sure Matilda's going to make it I'll get the axe right that's what you do you go to the

[10:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rys_saLiDA&t=600s) fields you kill the cows you barbecue them there's enough food for 4 and a half months okay and that's true in America it's true in Europe it's true in South America it's true in the UK H it's a bit less true in Africa largely because their cows are skinnier right India you're not going to be able to get the people to eat the cows it doesn't really apply there what about the Anarchy possibilities that would happen in an urban environment like New York or London that's what I worry about yeah people really really love that scenario is that cuz it's in the movies or why well but here's the weird thing right I mean the world has a long history of completely up situations right okay can you name one where you got prolonged stable Anarchy on the streets and people were eating each other not that that comes to mind it just never happened right some gang will take over some force will take over you get things like um I'm trying to think was it St Petersburg right so there's a long Siege from the Nazis there's a bit of cannibalism not very much but a little goes a long way Stalingrad that's think new movie about it recently yeah oh really it's pretty I don't know why I was thinking yes Stalingrad not St Petersburg so you know what did it take to produce Stalin grad right it took the second world war and it was only Stalingrad people got hungry you know there was a bit of looting there was a bit of violence in other places but the really serious like oh my God it's all gone wrong thing only really happened in one place and it took a blockade to make it happen right and that's generally speaking true right anytime you hear about something like a famine in almost every Circumstance the famine is produced by a government killing the free market locally right there's a whole history about that even the the Famine of Ireland which you have ties to are you from there uh no I live there most of the time okay but I can get there a lot of things were politically motivated absolutely they were still it wasn't the lack of food it was just that Irish weren't getting the food they were exporting grain from Ireland right the way through the famine right right I've heard this so um live a right you know 20 years ago 30 years ago this enormous Festival to raise money for Ethiopia they sent 48,000 or 56,000 tons of food down to Ethiopia the government let it rot on the docks they didn't want the people fed they wanted the people dead right right part when the US first went into Somalia it was because that the land the the power Lords weren't allowing the food to be delivered to the people it was a political movement it's very political right um I mean Somalia is a really complicated place but during the period when it was run by the union of Islamic courts they had anarchic government in a way that Libertarians could relate to

[12:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rys_saLiDA&t=750s) albe under Muslim law um then you go to Anarchy Anarchy where just nothing works now they've got central government again but you know throughout that period you don't get the famines until you put somebody in charge and that person decides that part of their population is Expendable this is why I am radically pro gun rights which is a really unusual position for a Brit huh interesting because all the way through history right every time that somebody is going to have a genocide the first thing they do is ban firearms um there's a site called arm thevic hims.com telling fact of human history is in the 20th century the state killed a quarter of a billion people in death camps right about half or a third as many people died to small pox died in gags and um you know uh ghettos and all the rest of this kind of stuff like it was a century of genocide but before we get further into your views when you meet someone at a party and they ask what you do what do you tell them cuz I just ran through a bunch of things about you but but how would you describe yourself in a nutshell man usually I describe myself as a lost hippie um no I mean you know what I will often say is that I'm you know a consultant right or that I'm a you know disaster relief specialist something like that okay but actually I mean you know what I made my bones on was working on scenarios that nobody else could handle so nuclear terrorist M pandemic biot Terror um genocide like the really big death toll stuff I did about three or four years of work where I just went through all of the real big you know worst case scenarios building mechanisms for getting people out with them okay so you kind of ma model it mathematically and try to think about it very systematically systematically yes but mathematically no okay so the Big Break was about 2007 2008 I'm living in Iceland and I I've got a background working on critical infrastructure stuff for energy policy so I used to be at Rocky Mountain Institute worked on a couple books one is small as profitable which is fantastic and the other is called winning the oil Land game okay critical infrastructure is like what electricity grids or water systems or well so break it down right critical if it goes away people die that's the definition of critical okay infrastructure the stuff you don't see infra under okay so it's the hidden under structure that keeps you alive and that's you know we use the word word infrastructure critical

[15:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rys_saLiDA&t=900s) infrastructure all the time without ever really making the link that this is what keeps Us Alive okay right you are your supply chain you are your shelter right you take those things away you have a life expectancy of hours okay so what are those things if you had to be specific okay so the old model right was you know pipes wires factories you know all this kind of stuff doesn't work you can't think about it in a in an intelligible way because it's too complicated so I moved from the old model that was kind of prevalent at Rocky Mountain Institute to this new model which is called simple critical infrastructure maps and it's a checklist because in a crisis you can just about get through a checklist you can't get through a modeling tool okay right checklist right what are the things that will kill you right you could get too hot too cold hungry thirsty you could get ill or you could get injured other than that you're not going to die except of old age and that's not our problem right right let the transhumanists get that one right give me my immortality shot now right so too H too cold hunger thirst illness injury right repeat it to me give me the list uh too hot too cold hunger thirst injury illness right okay no that's what you want to make sure that people can have not get those things after some type of scenario right well right and then you look at the systems it's doing it now so what protects you from dying being too hot you live in London not a threat um although a lot of people die like old people in heat waves yeah I remember 20,000 or so in France yeah they had a bad one in 05 or 04 yeah right and you know because it's people that are close to end of life we don't really count it but the death tools are enormous um do you come up with these Grand plans and advise governments on what they should do if these big things happen well I did at one point right I've gotten a little out with that work because I basically burned out on it right I I did a long round got to a point where I didn't really have anything else to add and then walked do governments really care are they really putting those Solutions into place or is it kind of like not not my problem unless it's cuz it's not a first order problem like I'm sure the conservative party wants to get reelected if something bad happens like Katrina they just say wasn't our fault God well I mean you know I used to think that and then you saw the response to Sandy right so on Sandy slick machine kicks into play right so look at Sandy from that model right too hot not going to happen too cold huge risk right hunger after a couple of days people get hungry if you don't do something they're going to get violent or they're going to relocate which is even more diff ult to deal with

[17:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rys_saLiDA&t=1050s) um thirst not really an issue could have been an issue end of the day people are not going to die of thirst in New York right it was raining still there was water around yeah you might wind up drinking dirty water takes you to illness right primary illness threat is always sanitation this is your blocked up toilets yeah yeah right really really quickly water supply Interruption immediately turns into pandemics right col in Haiti Cola it's probably going to kill more people in the earthquake did eventually then finally injury right this is the thing that everybody worries about oh my God we're going to get shot our neighbors will come and knock our doors down and steal our food and all the rest of this crap yeah here's the thing right I mean you know how to fight right yeah I can fight one person pretty good right pretty good not great but if people are serious about killing each other right what's the odd that one or other party is going to get maed in a Twan fight right yeah pretty much certainty what's the odds that the other party is going to be uninjured one and three yeah low low right you see it happen all the time with guys that are trained Fighters and they'll be in a bar and somebody will bump them and both of them get injured bad you see right you know I mean you know karate guys getting broken hands with the first time they really punch somebody you know mythology but really common right broken knees so in actual crisis situations people avoid violence unless they've got Ambush and overwhelming numbers and preferably better ornaments and even then you don't want to sacrifice any of those things with people that will really seriously fight back you want to grab what you can from Easy targets and move on again right that's exactly the same ammo that criminals have anytime you just don't get this kind of madmax War thing where you've got large- scale civil unrest because the people that are most able to perpetrate the violence are also the people that are least willing to get injured doing so okay right they might break into grandma's house and steal everything she owns but they're not likely to just shoot her in the head because they happen to be there it's a waste of ammunition okay so that's Hollywood scenarios it's it's a fear that government continues to stoke because because it makes them look necessary in actual fact there's a book called a paradise made in Hell talks about the 72 hours of voluntary cooperation that you get after any large scale disaster right we saw this in Japan after their right but you also saw it in your wings okay right there's so many conflicting reports that came out of New Orleans there was even some misinformation and disinformation that came out of New Orleans even the mayor later said that babies weren't raped and all these things that you heard were happening down there so look what happened at Sandy right occupy Sandy turns out they work hand in fist with the military which was working hand in

[20:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rys_saLiDA&t=1200s) first with this National Guard and FEMA and all the way up to you know the government right so voluntary cooperation 40,000 people or something like that were involved I can't remember how big it was but it was enormous maybe they run food to 40,000 people and there were about 20,000 1800 Vol I can't remember but anyway huge response effort social pro-social not anti-state definitely for other people incredibly smooth response to a situation that really could have been dangerous you're saying I shouldn't get a pallet of food and I shouldn't get a gun is what you're saying well actually no I think you should do both of those things but not because you're afraid of your neighbors okay right um what you saw in things like Sandy is short-term crisis right if they had had another four days of power outage it would have gone back into freezing conditions and they would have lost an enormous number of people probably hundreds could have been thousands they would just have frozen to death in New York there was no way to reach them door too there just wasn't enough manpower w total failure of organization but they got lucky on the weather and they had a good response the kind of scenarios where having a pallet of Food Matters is pandemics if you get a global outbreak of some kind of evil flu right um want to hear a scary thing yeah hit me so London has a pandemic flu plan produced by the London resilience Forum it maxes out a flu that kills one person in 50 if it kills more people than 1 in 50 it's not in that plan okay the organisms of threat right now the things that the pandemic guys are really worried about kill two in three okay A bit like the movie Contagion a bit like the Wonder was significant chunks of the population really significant chunks of the population right so that's entirely scientifically credible and you know there are two kinds of threats can you prepare for something like that oh hell yeah okay right two kinds of threats threat number one the more you know the less afraid you are threat kind two the more you know the more afraid you are pandemic flu is type two the more knowledge people get the more scared they are in terms of preparing for it all you can do is stay inside for a month okay right you go out stay away from people stay away from people stay indoors why the flu is outside it's not in your house sit in your house eat your food drink your C water wait right the pandemic goes in waves people are working on vaccines the government will take months to get really to its feet with a response plan so all you can do to stay alive in that situation is just stay the hell away from people and wait and that's what you have your pallet of food for it gives you the luxury of

[22:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rys_saLiDA&t=1350s) staying indoors and waiting okay and the gun um the gun is just in case anybody else who doesn't have that luxury wants to come in okay or who wants your food yeah but in in London it's not legal to have handguns but you're you're Pro handgun because you think being able to defend yourself would have uh would have handled a lot more problems in the last century you could get an absolutely amazing crossbow which is fully legal in the UK you'd be stunned how good those things are modern materials technology you're talking about half the muzzle energy of AK-47 okay crossbow great you're here you're here telling us we should buy crossbows fantastic hunger thirst illness injury right you know how do you prevent yourself getting injured um put a spike in anybody that wants your food so um with all of this kind of stuff right the the critical thing to avoid is this feeling that the government will fix it for you right in any really severe systemic crisis they will be busy handling the places where it got really bad right they will be look for the very worst place everybody else will get neglected but the worst place probably will be Central London not necessarily wow I mean look Central London right you know Center of government center of the military center of the crown right probably gets attention huge amounts of attention right the place where you'd be really afraid of being is like Manchester okay you know like it could get so bad in Manchester under that scenario and nobody would come okay why because all the troops are garrisoning London what's happening up north I don't know who cares nobody ever comes from there do they and government just moves right along so do you tell people to prepare themselves or educate themselves or what you tell people look ready.gov right us government's risk management website says everybody should have a 3-day kit in their house which will enable them to pick up their bag walk out the front door and not need anything for 3 days that is the US government's advice to everybody right you know anybody with that bag not even in the US right so start with the 3-day bag that's government advice that's not paranoia that's the states advice to everybody okay that has food too and water water tablets oration T pick up a bag walk outside 3 days you don't need anything from anybody the reason they keep advising people to do that is because in any kind of Crisis the last thing they want to be doing is worrying about ordinary civilians looking for food and water and all the rest of this kind of stuff they want to be paying attention to the people that got their legs broken in the earthquake they want to deal with the actual problem rather than the supply chain disruption so everybody should have a 3-day kit right that's easy anybody can do that everybody

[25:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rys_saLiDA&t=1500s) should and that's government advice that's not paranoia okay um however right flip side of the coin you you mentioned the question of whether everybody should be armed you know when the state goes bad it's like dealing with your friend when he become schizophrenic right the state goes off its meds and decides that the problem is the Jews or the gypsies or the Armenians or the dissident and now you have two problems right CU on one hand you're relying on the state to protect you and on the other hand now the state is becom your worst enemy okay that's a longer term problem that's not necess a crisis problem well I mean if it happens it's a crisis right I mean you know you had what uh 19 what 20 something I think the big killing starts in Russia and it runs right through to about 1950 you know 30 years of gags doing in on the order of 80 to 120 million people you know yeah that's bad things that's bad things um you know we have so much to talk about I'm I'm going to move you on what is this thing on the right here and why you just built it in my studio here in a matter of minutes what is it so this is the infamous hexayurt and the reason this thing exists is um well I for one thing burning man right okay so how many times have you been to Burning Man 07 maybe six when was your first one 96 wow I went as soon as I could after I got to America and when was the first one um sometime in the late ' 80s I want to say ' 89 maybe okay burning 5 they had a driveby shooting range right pickup truck tailor dummies assault rifle drive by shooting range okay very very nice and in 96 how many people were there I don't know 3,000 maybe okay and now it's 60 60,000 yeah it's big so this thing here the hexayurt right what is it it's an emergency shelter but it's also potentially a longrange solution to the mortgage so if you buy building materials right they come in 4x8 sheets in America here it's 1.2x 2.4 M everything comes in that shape wall pieces are a whole sheet roof pieces are half sheets you could basically just hack these things out of whatever building material you have and the instruction is cut half of the sheets in half bolt it into a shallow roof put it on top of a wall right boom you have shelter for people listening to us on iTunes it is hexayurt you're so hexayurt it's hexagon on the bottom if you were to take a take a cross-section and then the top is kind of not conle but it's kind of sloping upwards to a point and it's literally made of yeah the same number

[27:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rys_saLiDA&t=1650s) of pieces as the bottom but cut in half right that's pretty cool real simple right 12 sheets of plywood cut six of them in half make them into triangles most people could figure that out if you gave them the pieces and some materials to attach they might get it wrong for a few hours but yeah you know I mean if you've got half a day you'll get it yeah right if you watch the videos and the instructions you know there are literally thousands of people that have done it for the first time at Burning Man on the PLA and not screwed it up okay like we we never hear stories if we went to Burning Man and we couldn't get our hexayurt up it just doesn't happen how many of these are present at Burning Man um we reckon from the satellite pictures last year it was somewhere between 750 and a th000 this year we don't have a satellite picture but we think it's about twice that many from reports wow so well over a thousand we don't know how many okay and why do people use them there well you get two hours more sleep in the morning compared to a tent the tent's uninhabitable by 8 or 9 the hexayurt you can sleep till noon without even trying okay and that turns into one more day of an actual go like you know if you if you go out like early in the week by the end of the week you are just toasted from lack of sleep and too much heat okay take a hexayurt you can be fit as a fiddle Friday night Saturday night Sunday you can actually get your together and get out why did you create this thing uh and how was this yeah where did this come from um refugees okay so a bunch of people asked me whether I could do something about a refugee shelter I knew a bunch about gdic does cuz I used to work in um Graphics software and the math for gdic do is the same math for computer Graphics right it's all about triangulated surfaces okay so some folks were like can you fix this and I sat down and had a thing no no no wait click 15 minutes later had the first one after that it was like okay this is a big deal burning Manon 2003 went there with a tiny one that would fit like you could fit four of them in your living room right I mean they're just they're just tiny um you know anybody with a back Garden you could build one of the small ones so inside of those shelters right you know I'm sitting inside of this thing that I put together with duct tape and cardboard I open the door there's a white out dust storm outside like less than a meter of visibility wo close the door again and this thought forms in my head like I have changed the world right I've turned a bunch of industrial cardboard into a thing that has an inside and an outside I didn't even know there was a dust storm right and I put it on a roof rack myself you know there was there was almost no material there the entire thing weighed probably 30

[30:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rys_saLiDA&t=1800s) kilos right and it was a house for two people and it would cost nothing in mass production okay and it keeps you cool in the morning when in a heated scenario and it's warm in the night and so it insulates that air in there yeah but the critical thing is right if you got a really big disaster right say somebody drops a nukon New York and you've got to move 20 million people out of the Fallout zone right there aren't 20 million tents sitting around right there aren't 20 million hotels that will take radioactive guests no no no no no right so you've got to go and build literally 4 million houses right and the only material that you remotely have enough of to even think about doing that is plywood okay so you got to try and figure out the minimum trouble way of turning plywood into emergency housing that's about roughly half as efficient again as uh if you build it Square okay so you could build little A-frames or if you want to make your materials go about a third to half further you build hexayurts and they're easier to put up there's more space and then at theend end of that process you can just get rid of them you can just mulch the damn things um to get rid of the radiological contamination just bury them and part of your ethos is kind of to open source this stuff right you've always been about putting your ideas out there so people can use them no copyright no patent right free for allous decision oh yeah absolutely okay cuz look I mean there' have been people inventing cool shelters for 50 years right there are just no end of these cool shelter projects out there none of them ever go anywhere right you get a little company with three or four employees that sells 5,000 units year and that's as big as it ever gets so most of those shelters are patented and if they're patented you can't make them where you need them you can only make them where the company is it's still good it's just not the solution so no patent you make them where you need them that means you can buy the materials you can configure the design you don't have to screw around um you know you could set up a factory making these things in South Africa tomorrow morning uh you know a month and a half later you'd have a production line and 3 months after that you'd be housing 20,000 people it's that easy on that same note do you think a company is the ideal type of structure to to produce something like this or even produce every product or do you think there's a another way for people to work together in some type of organization to make things you know government's on one side maybe profitable business on the other is there somewhere in between oh God yeah but before we branch that let me give you the punch line on the hexayurt thing right make it in foam cover it in chicken wire spray it in concrete right so super cheap super easy super light permanent insulation concrete shelter okay anybody can build

[32:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rys_saLiDA&t=1950s) it that means you can do a four-bedroom house one hex per room build it with nice tall walls so you've got real like you know 8T High ceilings and then higher from there 15 grand for a four bedroom that you can build yourself in a month now we're talking that's pretty good and now kill the mortgage is this mortgage does this also have refugee camp uh possibilities everywhere okay right I mean you could build it out of super cheap materials whatever material you're using there is no cheap way of using it than a hexayurt right there's nothing you can do that uses the material more efficiently in space okay right it's almost a hemisphere so mathematically right most efficient shape is a sphere almost a hemisphere but no complicated angle cutting right there's nothing to it how on that same note have you studied you know refugee camps and is there anything you could tell us about what what you know what a good one is what a bad one is if that even exists that concept you know Syria we're seeing it now they're setting up all these refugee camps and and they're always temporary but they're never temporary that's right that's right people realize that okay so I'm just going to have to put this on the stack right so we'll come back to that thing about the state in a second because all it's all interconnected okay so refugee camps the problem is this you got a guy called a camp manager that controls the budget for the entire camp and his agreement is the un's agreement or the red cross's agreement with the local government that you guys will not start an economy so you have to sit there not starting an economy right right you don't have economic rights you're not allowed to work you're not allowed to start Manufacturing you know you just can't get your life together in the refugee camp because you're only there temporarily right you also have nothing to do right right right 60 years later right uh the Palestinian refugees are still refugees um you know kibira in is it Kenya right they've been there for five generations temporary right right so place off of Morocco south of Morocco that I forgot the name of that state they've got the temporary yeah CL yeah and they just go on forever and ever and ever right so you you got to start thinking of refugee camps as temporary cities right where temporary means maybe not more than five generations right 50 years from now maybe this will be gone um what's going to turn this whole thing around is smartphones tablets internet access because what happens when you've got 25,000 people sitting in a tense City with tablet computers printed on the back of freaking cardboard you know screens that recharge from the Sun simple cheap computers in that environment they're going to talk to each other they're going to self organized they're going to network with their friends they're going to connect

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Continues in https://guptaoption.com/texts/689-2.md (part 2 of 3).
End of [689] Vinay Gupta - Resilience Guru | London Real, part 1 of 3. Its connections are at the top of this file; the map is https://guptaoption.com/llms.txt.