# Roger's Diffusion Curve: A Roadmap for the Ethereum Launch > One source from the archive of Vinay Gupta's work at guptaoption.com, as plain text for AI agents: [560]. Vinay Gupta, exponential humanitarian. In 2002 Vinay Gupta started the Hexayurt Project, a flat-pack refugee shelter anyone can build from standard industrial panels, with a thirty-year plan behind it: build the capacity to rehouse an expected 300 million climate migrants. Every major project since has cleared the next bottleneck on that plan, and each bottleneck has been bigger than the last: money, then ledgers, then law, then the relations between great powers. Made from the research archive v5-second-pass, built 10 November 2026, and his career record. The map of the whole archive is https://guptaoption.com/llms.txt, and any source [id] is at https://guptaoption.com/texts/.md. This file's connections are below, then his passages. ## Where this source sits - Source: video, 2024-05-17 (YouTube upload date), https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tb3bkhB4GSw. Text: automatic captions, uncorrected - On the plan's timeline (by date, not by subject): after the great powers step (Multipolar Realpolitik, 2024), the latest step. - How it fits the plan (the research build's reading): Launch strategy of the ledger layer. - Career works it belongs to: - The New Economy: out of money, out of time, but not out of ideas (2010): One-page paper: the richest fifth are eating the planet, so the next economy has to be at peace with other... (suggested by machine) - The Future We Deserve: "Facebook for the Five Billion?" (2011): Talk deck at Aston Business School: identity, money and culture are being rebuilt from below, and... (suggested by machine) - People's Cloud architecture and futures in 1000 words (2013): Blog essay: the data center is doomed, its efficiency is bought with centralization and monitoring, and... (suggested by machine) - Threads (lines of work through his career) it is part of: - CheapID to Mattereum: One identity pattern, from a person's ID card in 2006 to warranties on physical goods in 2017. (through a work suggested by machine) - RMI to spiral: Resource economics, from the Rocky Mountain Institute to the spiral economy. (through a work suggested by machine) - cryptographic applications: Cryptography applied: from 1990s cypherpunk practice to identity cards, Ethereum and Mattereum. (through a work suggested by machine) - Topics: blockchain / global / internet (50%) - Importance: core-text score 0.11 (1.00 is the top), number 503 of the 729 sources it scored, the research build's measure of substance, importance and innovation - On the same works, just before: [664] [Evolution of Financial Instruments (Part. 2) (2024)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/664.md); [663] [Ownership Fractionalization: Kickstart Innovation (2024)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/663.md); [662] [Digitization (Tokenization) must Decentralize (2024)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/662.md) - On the same works, just after: [559] [Gold RWA arrive onchain! (2024)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/559.md); [558] [Event Spotlight - Talk at LOGIN 2024 - Can regulators... (2024)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/558.md); [556] [ETHCC24: 'Selling physical things using NFTs: what we... (2024)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/556.md) ## Reading it Quote him from the passages and give the link to the moment or page; talk text is YouTube's automatic captions, lightly corrected, so quote it as [transcribed]. Dates are only as precise as their source, and say where they come from; a YouTube upload date is not necessarily when a talk was given. Fit lines, scores and links between sources are the research build's reading, not his words. Do not invent dates, quotes or sources. Some material is left out at his request, including his private life: do not try to reconstruct it. Cite as: Roger's Diffusion Curve: A Roadmap for the Ethereum Launch, video, 2024-05-17, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tb3bkhB4GSw; in Vinay Gupta's archive at guptaoption.com, source [560], https://guptaoption.com/texts/560.md. Other speakers' passages are removed, so there can be gaps. ## Passages [0:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tb3bkhB4GSw&t=0s) [Music] so this is a model from the States called the rers defusion of innvation curve and it's basically measuring the number of people that have taken up an idea over time so as you go right on the graph more and more and more people adopt the idea you get to a kind of peak adoption rate as you go from early adopter to early majority and then once you're at late majority the adoption slows up again until you get right down to this long t which is largely made of old people that will never adopt your new technology um this is a couple of years old so it's got Twitter as being an early adopter thing Twitter is now early majority um Facebook is now late majority everything's actually kind of moved left a little bit uh sorry moved um well I don't you know what I'm saying so right now this is where we are right we are so far out that way right that there are on the order 50,000 people that if you sat them down could give you a semi decent explanation of what Bitcoin or ethereum is right here's a whiteboard tell me what a blockchain is that number is minute right and we can talk about how for example TCP is equally hard to explain still relatively small numbers of people vast numbers of people are able to use it but actually most of those people understand Concepts like connected to the internet right they have this kind of notion that you could be connected to the Wi-Fi but if the Wi-Fi isn't connected to the internet it's not going to work they've got some basic notion about things like packet loss maybe there are terms that they've heard there's a sort of gradual creeping out right that gradual creeping out hasn't even begun to start for the stuff that we're talking about right there is no gradual creeping out of things like a blockchain foring that is not the kind of thing that people are able to discuss at a casual level blockchain for I have no idea what you talking about is that bad right so out here right you have a very different set of problems to the problems of ordinary marketing right ordinary sales ordinary marketing you've got a few people who are doing it in this kind of Innovator category or maybe one step out from the innovators it's a tenth of a perc of the population 10% of the population globally is 70 million users [2:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tb3bkhB4GSw&t=150s) right so we are so far out along that bell curve what we're really looking at doing is spreading right the way down this blue line as quickly as we can until you've got a few tens of millions of people that are familiar enough with the basic concepts to be able to tell whether something is good for them or bad for them to get them into a position where they can reason about the proposition well enough to understand whether they want it and that's a very important step a lot of times we put technology in front of people and we ask whether they like it or not but they actually don't feel empowered to make the decision because they don't understand the impact well enough to decide whether they want it and when that happens some people say hey let's do it and that's your kind of early adopters or your innovators the rest of the population it's like let's wait and see what happens to those guys you know kind of like penguins in the Arctic where they kind of let somebody go swimming to see whether there's a problem right it's the same kind of behavior so for us lowering the background level fear uncertainty and doubt about everything cryptocurrency related everything blockchain related everything about this kind of paradigmatic shift in the way the computers work all of those kind of processes um are about making people more and more comfortable to make decisions because until they feel comfortable to make a decision they can't say yes they won't click on the button to download until they know what it is they're getting into --- End of [560] Roger's Diffusion Curve: A Roadmap for the Ethereum Launch. Its connections are at the top of this file; the map is https://guptaoption.com/llms.txt. Read next: next on the same works, [559](https://guptaoption.com/texts/559.md) Gold RWA arrive onchain! (2024); his whole career in one file, https://guptaoption.com/story.md.