# Vinay Talk Amsterdam October 2019 (part 1 of 2)

> One source from the archive of Vinay Gupta's work at guptaoption.com, as plain text for AI agents: [254], part 1 of 2. Vinay Gupta, exponential humanitarian. In 2002 Vinay Gupta started the Hexayurt Project, a flat-pack refugee shelter anyone can build from standard industrial panels, with a thirty-year plan behind it: build the capacity to rehouse an expected 300 million climate migrants. Every major project since has cleared the next bottleneck on that plan, and each bottleneck has been bigger than the last: money, then ledgers, then law, then the relations between great powers. Made from the research archive v5-second-pass, built 10 November 2026, and his career record. The map of the whole archive is https://guptaoption.com/llms.txt, and any source [id] is at https://guptaoption.com/texts/<id>.md. This file's connections are below, then his passages.

## Where this source sits

- Source: video, 2019-10-07 (YouTube upload date), https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asjf_pewvMk. Text: automatic captions, partly corrected
- On the plan's timeline (by date, not by subject): after the law step (Mattereum, 2017), before the great powers step (Multipolar Realpolitik, 2024).
- How it fits the plan (the research build's reading): Vinay's own statement of the spine: a 30-year plan for climate refugees starting with shelter.
- Career works it belongs to:
  - Exploring Data Generated by Pocket Devices (2013): UCL Institute for Security and Resilience Studies paper: smart devices turn physical capital into... (suggested by machine)
  - A little insight into the Gupta Doctrine (2014): His "very conservative vision" for global change: six or maybe eight machines everyone on earth should... (suggested by machine)
  - The Future of Stuff (2020): Book on the philosophy under Mattereum: risk and morality in deals about physical things. (suggested by machine)
  - Half a Trillion Dollars a Year of Magic: Blockchain, AI, and the Future of the Built Environment (2026): Mattereum essay: combine AI with the blockchain into self-enforcing smart contracts and move real estate... (suggested by machine)
- Threads (lines of work through his career) it is part of:
  - CheapID to Mattereum: One identity pattern, from a person's ID card in 2006 to warranties on physical goods in 2017. (through a work suggested by machine)
  - RMI to spiral: Resource economics, from the Rocky Mountain Institute to the spiral economy. (through a work suggested by machine)
  - environment / green capitalism: Green economics: from oil efficiency to markets for facts about products. (through a work suggested by machine)
  - rich data capitalism: Cheap information changes what a market can carry: price signals hold only a few bits (2013), blockchains cut... (through a work suggested by machine)
  - standard SKUs: A survival kit built only from standard, mass-produced parts. (through a work suggested by machine)
- Topics: Capitalism, consumption & resources (31%)
- Distinctive terms here, against the whole archive: consumerism (5 here; 12 sources in all, earliest dated 2010); circular economy (2 here; 17 sources in all, earliest dated 2019); First build (1 here; 4 sources in all, earliest dated 2010); high-frequency trading (1 here; 6 sources in all, earliest dated 2017); markets (10 here; 159 sources in all, earliest dated 2006, 6 undated); platforms (4 here; 76 sources in all, earliest dated 2008); digital twin (1 here; 12 sources in all, earliest dated 2017); second hand (1 here; 12 sources in all, earliest dated 2011); durable goods (1 here; 14 sources in all, earliest dated 2014); climate refugees (1 here; 28 sources in all, earliest dated 2010)
- The earliest dated source in this archive for (undated sources may be earlier): circular economy
- Importance: core-text score 0.38 (1.00 is the top), number 179 of the 729 sources it scored, the research build's measure of substance, importance and innovation
- Related sources:
  - [735] [Vinay Gupta - Mattereum (2022)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/735.md): close in content (cosine 0.94)
  - [572] [How To Address Climate Change: Diplomacy, Politics,... (2022)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/572.md): close in content (cosine 0.94)
- On the same works, just before: [862] [Interview VINAY GUPTA about Ethereum, Decarbonizing by... (2019)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/862.md); [752] [Vinay Gupta: The Cities That Will Walk Away (2019)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/752.md); [165] [The Mattereum Manifesto: green capitalism, product... (2019)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/165.md)
- On the same works, just after: [758] [#3 Vinay Gupta, Indexing the physical world (2019)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/758.md); [252] [Vinay Gupta / Mattereum Manifesto keynote at the London... (2019)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/252.md); [253] [Goldsmiths talk on life extension and fluid language (2019)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/253.md)

## Reading it

Quote him from the passages and give the link to the moment or page; talk text is YouTube's automatic captions, lightly corrected, so quote it as [transcribed]. Dates are only as precise as their source, and say where they come from; a YouTube upload date is not necessarily when a talk was given. Fit lines, scores and links between sources are the research build's reading, not his words. Do not invent dates, quotes or sources. Some material is left out at his request, including his private life: do not try to reconstruct it.

Cite as: Vinay Talk Amsterdam October 2019, video, 2019-10-07, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asjf_pewvMk; in Vinay Gupta's archive at guptaoption.com, source [254], https://guptaoption.com/texts/254.md.

Other speakers' passages are removed, so there can be gaps.

## Passages, part 1 of 2
[0:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asjf_pewvMk&t=0s) genuinely radical certain point for anything at this point of the situation with hundreds of millions of climate refugees and I started work on a project that expected to take 30 years to so I work on the shelter first build the shelter system build the hexayurt are very widely uses the place is like burning mom my vision for a second shelter technology called which is own refugee camps I worked at energy policy work the Department of Defense and there are a couple of seats here guys go to come in yes except of them Susan all right so so it works really really hard on the environmental stuff but I was working an energy policy a good understanding that's at pockets this is coming from a place of so let me start with a sense of

[2:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asjf_pewvMk&t=126s) scale to give some numbers for how much over sustainable consumption we are and when we get to the number that you think is how much we are over it sustainable consumption raise your hand so does anybody think we're currently sustainable okay twice over a sustainable consumption okay three times over sustainable consumption raise your mom big thing for three times over consumption four times right your your hand up for three keep up for four okay five times I think so fair number of people think we're over funshine sustainable consumption right so that means to reach sustainability we have to top our environmental resource consumption by eighty percent right can then be the amount of living on 20% of your current income so our job is to visualize the world in which you could maintain roughly your current standard of living or a better one own 20% of your environmental first but I'm gonna point to some historical examples of where we've achieved those kind of results in other areas and then I'm going to suggest why those things that work for us that so it's think of something that super popular here which is the bicycle how much more efficient is bicycle than walking or riding a horse it's basically the most efficient system for transport in terms of calories of energy because

[4:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asjf_pewvMk&t=276s) trains generally speaking you're not suffering because you're in bicycle run to the cars and the Americans are really suffering because their cities are totally broken by tarz right you have the car shoes garage the parking space on the street huge amounts of the open lawn is taken up by the car and their cities have incredibly expensive real estate largely as a result of the amount of space reserved for cars that can't be turned into housing offices schools and workplaces so that's an example the situation where the Americans went to a mass conversion to bicycles even the places where you don't freeze that and winter to fall to buy you know if you went through that last conversion to temper bits of America they would be just as happy with bicycle solution as you are I think we cut their environmental consumption for transport from car levels to spike levels so it's not that these things are completely fixed and we can't change them there aren't a lot of solutions in place and does anybody live in an old house it takes a ton of energy to heat I'd always listed old houses and leaking like a sieve four years ago I moved into plumber house it was really well insulated it's a whole different experience but you've got in the morning in the house isn't freezing and the heating isn't running it's just the Sun is coming in the windows and it's keeping the place up and it works even in winter because we've got a nice big south-facing window and that's a totally different experience of what it's like to be in the house but being in a house which continually attempts to settle to the temperature of the outdoors right am i miserable because I wasn't an insulated house rather not insulated oh it's fine so it's not the federal solutions we know that are areas where you know the bicycle is I know ten or a hundred times more efficient than a car an insulated house will have a quarter of the heat of consumption of an uninsulated house you know we know this stuff is there so a lot of this covers

[6:59](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asjf_pewvMk&t=419s) blockchain because what Jane provides some of the tooling that we need to get this work reasonable if you want a decent understanding of change you're comfortable with it as a technology it that's great that's amazing right so for the folks who are roughly speaking for our purposes the books it is a database which is efficiently shared between any combination of individuals or organizations so if you think of something like the hospital typically all of the information inside of a hospital or since it's on a single computer system and if you go to another doctor they have to pull your records manually and they get them fax or email to them and those systems are very bureaucratically inefficient those are the systems work in a blockchain world everybody is sharing the database that soars for example your medical records so anybody that's providing medical care will be connected to the same global database I'd use cryptography efficiency systems private and you could also do a bunch of crazy stuff to make them censorship resistant that's pretty good things like this one so but we go on to the technical thing what we'll be discussing is the use of shared databases which extend across many many different people working together to manage environmental impact so if you think when we start talking about the volcano how it works for that this thing database shared across all the people that are working together to do something all right so let's so there are basically four fundamental metabolic functions the first function is investment right nothing happens nothing gets built without some of the investing resources in it there are many many different kinds invest with many styles of investment but in the past roughly 50 years we've started to use mathematics in a much more disciplined way to manage investment decisions so there are three or four different things you could point out you could point to portfolio theory you could point to quantitative finance you can point out high-frequency trading algorithms and there are probably 50 other examples that really specialized finance people who talk about it but we really started need mouths and computers into the financial system in a big way and over the last 50 years that's going

[9:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asjf_pewvMk&t=569s) to deeper deeper and deeper and deeper into finance at this point roughly half of the world's commodity trading happens on computerized exchanges where all the trading decisions are made so quickly a human being never sees the decisions right the algorithms are established they just do the training and that system is fundamental to the global economy nobody even once such elitists it just works and music correctly now that proof says of using some mathematical modeling do fundamental processes given to something finance the general with some naming this entire set of processes is statistical process control so you measure everything you can about a process you build a statistical model with how the process behaves and if you want to modify the process you basically could perform experiments because you've got a model with how the process works you change some variables you see a change in the output you've got a model that will let you correlate the cause in the example and this is sort of common sense stuff right this is how the world

[10:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asjf_pewvMk&t=639s) works do you guys want to come in it was about 1920 but it's sort of common sense if you want to do something you want it to work properly at some point you're gonna start measuring things and you're gonna start comparing the results you want with the results you've got this is a big place for this impact their lives it's not the use of mathematical modeling an advancement exuse a mathematical modeling in mass production this is does anybody have anything in this room that was not a product of mass production in a factory at any level you're tell me for you my bracelet so there were mass-produced everything else came off the production line right probably 99% of the objects in the room of moral production

[13:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asjf_pewvMk&t=789s) [Music] industrial production model works so well that it's displaced nearly all the other models of production right if we've gone stop question 200 years ago maybe the pins in people's hops wouldn't be mass-produced maybe the thread that sowed their clothes maybe even the fabric but the vast majority the objects would be made by huh so we replace this old made by handful for the most part mass production is more efficient because what we didn't do in mass production is we measure everything so if you have a production line and you know you start at one end with you know steel wire rather the other end a modern mass production system will measure okay how long does it take to sharpen each pin right how long does it take to polish it and how long does it take to stick the head whatever the proof that says we measure every step in the process we watch super closely when it happens if it turns out that it's taking too much time and taking too much her salary we start figuring out how much it will cost to buy a machine to make that set faster and we repeat that process until every step that can be economically efficiently automated is automated and the production line is then running as cheaply as we currently know how to make it and that process has produced an astonishing amount of material wealth if we go back a couple hundred years ago people would own one set of clothes and that would be their clothes and that would be it right at this point though if somebody did that they would either be a one bad backpacker or they would be wildly eccentric breath but we've gotten into a position where material goods have become so over abundant the often are hard problems are about having too much stuff or having problems making decisions rather than the absolute availability of goods and we didn't wind up there and I imagine we wound up there by applying the process which is almost like but the process of industrial mass productions owes an enormous and it's

[15:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asjf_pewvMk&t=939s) not just that you develop that technique in a lab and they take out and scale it and it's not just that science turns into machines it's the attitude about measuring and statistical process control and systematic improvement by analysis is how we built the production system that we've got today which is the source of a huge amount of the world's problems because the production system is so incredibly good determine raw materials into several people warm that we're just crunching through the world supply of raw materials super super super quickly to make all this stuff and it takes energy it takes tiny it's labor most of all it's materials Oh or they made it by chopping something down that's throwing into machine and that's basically we're stuff it's either grown or its mind and both of those things they want so this is so far because this is a kind of funny on both the loop of the world right you don't really think about all the invisible people measuring things that made this shirt but you know the fibers are really fine they're tight you know like it don't very precisely mean you know machines did all of that and the machines get designed by engineers and engineers measure things and outside of you know the machine works and that's everything we measure and refine now investment production right statistical monitoring proof sets control stepwise improvement as soon as they walk into a shop and buying the shirt it loses all visibility to any kind of statistical analysis so everything in this room that

[17:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asjf_pewvMk&t=1055s) came out of mass production was represented in a computer system as a set of Records right the way through the process they'll be card files that is manufactured from contracts quality control parameter specifications every component will have a carbonyl somewhere all of that stuff was digital the scope control levels the order levels the shipping the boxing that where it's supposed to be placed in a warehouse all that stuff numerical models database records the whole thing as soon as the consumer walked into a shop adviser the last time the object is digital it somebody makes a payment to pay for it and then after that it falls into the analog black hole and becomes we invisible to computers no measurement no statistical process control no ability to optimize because we stopped the other name we essentially go blind at the pointman consumption and that's where the trouble starts because we can no longer use the mechanisms that we used to hyper optimize investment and production to manage consumption and waste the consumption process in the waste process are in pretty much the same pre industrial condition that they were in 300 years ago so we've taken the first two parts of the process and we've ramped them up to become thousands of times more effective than they were in the old days but we haven't done anything to equally retool the consumption of the waste processes so that they can keep up with the efficiency of the production process

[20:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asjf_pewvMk&t=1210s) crisis over this industrial history history is the creation of artificial demand so the Americans are the first people to hit this problem that the factories can produce more than the population will buy if you just pile it up and they come left right so the old days things were so rare that if you had a pile of things selling it was generally speaking nope the harder part the Americans have got to produce so much stuff because their economy went through massive industrialization and then at that point they were desorber producing will be in Kettleman we manage and the rest of the world was so poor there was not much point in the mix for them they certainly did export but they could be they could saturate the export markets they had access to as fuss as the concentrate the domestic market pretty much so at this point the Americans it is largely the Americans begin to develop consumerism and consumerism is the creation of a pattern of psychological needs which caused people to cope when they're emotionally uncomfortable and that process of shopping when you're emotionally uncomfortable once thuds well understood in a population use terms like retail therapy uncomfortable hey your kids properly maybe you should buy our product because people who take care of their kids buy our products right and that's a 30% of adverts because parents are really psychologically vulnerable to the questions about whether you're taking care of your kids but really particularly if it's your first kid and you don't realize that you could drop them on their head a few times and they're fine that kind of psychological tolerability in the creation of psychological abilities so adverts which were designed to attack male psychological vulnerability car returns right uh-huh hundred thousand euros worth of car

[22:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asjf_pewvMk&t=1360s) these fears are super pregnant right and we've got entire industries dedicated to using very old instance because this is more stuff so all the bond signaling has become completely distorted because we generate huge amounts of oversupply and then we poke people with psychological stakes to make them resorb the oversupply and by crop they meet now where does all of this crop go that's a good story that's dude thing for us to do but for the most part the first place the stuff goes is storage I mean the second place so the storage thing again this is very much an American problem it's probably less of a problem here lose your real estate is more expensive but the boomer generation in America right the people over for in the fifties and sixties they typically have quite big houses because America was quite rich enough and typically those big houses from popped with boxes I hope you don't put in twenty years the basements the cover it's the optics

[25:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asjf_pewvMk&t=1510s) stuff that was accumulated over decades of overproduction resulting over consumption result in a storage problem and that storage problem is gigantic because once the goods are out of immediate circulation right what's your normal we're using the thing every day and you kind of put it somewhere there's a real big cost associated with taking the whole chick back down again and then selling it right getting things on eBay probably takes half an hour or an hour per object because you gotta take pictures write the description to figure out what you're gonna charge rent and that tiny cost often exceeds the economic benefit of actually just leaving the object where it is because it's just more expensive for time to sell in the nice and that equation reads more expensive in high imminent or to sell it and keep it results in this tendency for us to just wind up in these huge archives of stuff does anybody feel like they feel like viewing too much

[26:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asjf_pewvMk&t=1585s) yourself and to hear let me ask the magic question why don't we have statistical process control databases to help us monitor stuff the stuff was infested using a computer it was manufactured using a computer it was so why is it so hard why didn't you have an application on your food it's like your personal bank account for all of your things hey 31 pairs of shoes are you sure you need another pair of shoes not pair of shoes looks just like a pair of shoes you already do would you like me to sell the old pair automatically on eBay right now is it possible that we could see a future world for every time you purchase something it's automatically transferred to an application that you own so the money goes in one direction and the ownership record goes in the other direction and now you've got a digital record of all of your possessions and then you can do statistical process control and your ownership stuff you do for personal finance why shouldn't we do it for Marisol spending imagine how much easier our wives would be if we automatically had a record of every single object that we had ever spent money to acquire and we could begin to look for patterns where we had more stuff than we needed in some areas where we had things we hadn't used for a long time in other areas and if all of that stuff is nicely digital in the records of properly managed properly secured we can then do automatic lists on platforms get rid of so if I decide that I'm just I have too much stuff in you know my cupboards hey what's in this cover well you know this this this this and this I just passed them in front of my phone it's got a little tag right it tells me what the objects are it tells me what I could get if I sold them on eBay it might even have some agent come and pick the damn stuff I can get rid of it for me if we hunt those kind of digital models of digital control over material England could we actually conceivably get rid of a lot of things without really noticing the impact if we had good ways of tracking what we owned what we use what the next level is if we've

[28:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asjf_pewvMk&t=1735s) got really good digital records that track what the thing is does anybody shop on eBay couple of platforms here so who shops on those two platforms so how good are the product descriptions on those platforms right generally speaking they're terrible the pictures are usually really awful the text descriptions are kind of random you have no idea what the thing originally was unless somebody wants the model number and it's wrong doesn't really work right there's no way searching semantically so if I say I want to remove control that will work with this television that are probably 50 remotes at work about television but if I say you know I won't you know if I type in the mobile number of that television the eBay is I just want the remote control there may be one remote control that comes up because eBay doesn't know that you know 50 models of TV all use the same IR signal and it just doesn't do these things are interoperable because it's got no semantics I can't express my need of what a remote control that will work with this TV I could only say a woman remote all that came with this TV because eBay doesn't know populace appalled citizen with color much then you replace by few things over the same color nightmare because it doesn't use a mathematical description of cover it doesn't use RGB it just says light green and then there's a photograph now you know what kind of color the light was in the room of photograph with 16 labels so really high quality information records that the strange things are and we transferred those records through every step of the supply chain from personal ownership to your software says you should get rid of to your software lists that on ebay for you and then somebody buys it if the record that the person gets when they buy a bad thing is the same record the manufacturer gave the first over when the thing was sold no we can talk about making these secondary markets really efficient last time to list the things less costs to list the things much higher reliability of the information in the secondary market and therefore higher prices and more liquidity more stuff on the secondary markets where access to the secular markets well if you even had a

[31:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asjf_pewvMk&t=1885s) system where almost everything that you owned was just kind of floating around on the secondary markets and once in a while somebody would give you an offer for it even if you haven't consciously listened it hey Doc pair of shoes you you haven't worn in two years somebody would like to give you $75 for those shoes yes or no right so we could begin to use software to persuade all those clueless you were destroyed whenever we were all the way not scrapped in yeah why are we taking them to market Fred [Music] dozens of used by somebody else they like them use space but also build the knowledge by the actual use of objects in the material world so we could do statistical process control so we can figure out what objects are producing

[33:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asjf_pewvMk&t=2035s) tons of impart for very little human benefit or redesign than others because we don't build these really deep models of how the physical world is used we can't make anything work from and this applies also to the disposal right

[34:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asjf_pewvMk&t=2049s) wastes if I have a digital record about what the object was through its entire life but it finally hits at least because the thing is just room I could go back and retrieve a record of exactly what's in it 60s t47 screws this bunch of stainless steel a piece of plastic shape like that and at that point it becomes feasible to strip it for parts rather than just junk it it becomes possible to reuse the pulvinus rather than simply ripping it down for raw materials or what we usually do which is becomes vastly more efficient in the final step and when we start talking about concepts like circular economy it's almost impossible to build a circular economy unless you've got excellent data about the materials you're going around in the circle but you get to that final stage and somebody says right I want you to put this back into the value chain well I knew exactly what they say is right if I could find a buyer for it in its current condition maybe somebody want to take this tweed jacket and make two you know patches where there's a mouthful and then wear it great sell it right Napoli's love tweet and through cheap tweet sent it to Nepal they love myself I'll do with the transport logistics of the cost environmental cost the transport another year any pretty simple right very many things that end of life and Western societies could be reused exactly as there are in other places which are poor or indeed poor people in that society problem one probably if you really can't find a buyer for the thing as a whole strip it to pieces and then sell the parts and if you can't find a buyer in advance then so now you put this decision whether you store it or whether you recycle over the Alachua but all of those processes will be radically more efficient if we had exact information about what was and so one can't make a manifest from my laptop manufacturer that shows me every single component of my laptop right down to the screws because that's what you need if you're going to effect have a circle in common I've sort of suggests that a kind of magical thing where data is shared across the investment the consumption and production that's right investment the production the consumption of the waste stages and objects life right now there's tons of software in the first two stages which manages those first two stages specialized financial modeling

[36:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asjf_pewvMk&t=2199s) packages enterprise resource planning there's all kinds of manufacturing optimization software everybody's got their own set of tools we've no tools at all for effective consumption we're very well protected based on what the blockchain gives us is the potential of having a sort of interoperable base layer right in the same with the email is like the fundamental primitive of communication when you're operating across organizations you could have the blockchain with the kind of fundamental primitive that allows you to connect the investment the production the consumption of the wasted stages of an object's life because the records that describe the object or on the blockchain however you're still going to want tons

[37:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asjf_pewvMk&t=2241s) and tons and tons of specialized software that handles all the detailed work and that's kind of the equivalent of attachments when you send an email right the email will handle tax and maybe bold and formatting in a few links but if you want to send anything complicated you're going to attach a spreadsheet or a CAD file or revision same as blockchain blockchain this gives you this very thin layer of connectivity and then all the really detailed stuff gets clipped onto a kind of like attachments what my company does is we've got a set of legal machinery to make sure that the additional information you attach to of which on the blockchain is true and if it's not you can get money back and that's what we do for initially things like collectables right we're working with William Shatner the author of the week Captain Kirk in the original Star Trek and shoppers very very interested in using blockchain to manage things like memorabilia it's a nice starting point but what we're driving towards is understanding that the not function of the blockchain they said electronic records which are as durable as the goods of the records referred to if you're gonna have a nice pair of shoes such a loss twenty years the eletronic record that describes those shoes she lost as long as the shoes do it longer and right now most of our database systems are architected oddly they continually get rid of information to try and free up room for other information Amazon is not good to store a record at some point so 20 years ago in a way that will make those records accessible to the public so if we need really long-term data record storage so the end-of-life disposal we didn't know what the Fingal's at the beginning we needed a new way of thinking about the storage storage of data the closest thing we have is the blockchain so my suggestion is that we can see the creation of a new set of practices which would be as transformative for a civilization as the investment as the invention of mass production walls which involve correctly instrumenting and measuring what happens in the consumption phase of society optimizing the hacker using the same mathematical techniques that we use an investor and in the production systems we manage the data so that you could connect the production the consumption the waste set together properly so that nothing is unnecessarily wasted and all of that information goes back to investors so they can figure out where to put the money more accurately know that process is not like an industrial revolution right it's not like you have to start

[39:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asjf_pewvMk&t=2391s) from scratch and invent statistical process control and invent mass production we're already starting with statistical process control unblocked chains and mass production how does a motive template supposed to do this so my suggestion is that this is actually not a bad job right it's probably less complicated than building over the Internet the past 20 years right the evolution of the worldwide web from you know a single document describing I think it was a bound playing in CERN that was the first website right all the way Facebook Amazon Google and all the rest about you know without pro stencil move to 20 years it's a really really short period of time compared to so my suggestion is the next one could be faster we could get all the information from manufacturers and we can get that information stored in some kind of objective normal register and we could tie that information together with consumer purchasing behavior I think you'd store those records the way the game is to earn control of their data and the satellites and we could wire it up to the secondary markets like eBay and all the rest of those markets and we could get those records into the hands of people that were doing waste disposal of these objects even if there were countries like India or China or Thailand and we could wire all of that stuff up in maybe 10 or 20 years from a sounding start to a system that's completely seamless because almost every single step in that process is already controlled by computers your credit card company knows exactly what you're buying it just doesn't put that information into something said that bank corrector so you can see something similar weeks on a hard to imagine you scan the object you know time on the object you're just about to finish then we do some rounds so

[42:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asjf_pewvMk&t=2525s) for joining together all of these disparate pieces of information to a single unified whole now here's the question do we believe that if the world worked that way we could get greater satisfaction with its you're a high end because your primary camera purchasers are professional photographers who only buy the new camera if you can sell the old camera from nearly what they paid for it when they bought it so the customers will reliably buy your new gear have to sell you here so the more efficient the secondary market is the more new puffing the environment the environment with consumerism well producing a much higher quality of life for consumers right you buy much better quality things you sell them when you're done with them if you just want a secondhand one the second how markets are really efficient so you hang on West stuff because you buy if you need it you can easily imagine something that would a Swedish youth service or not so Frank waiter no I want a digital camera I can be the rent or buy one and there are 50,000 of them in the city that I'm in all of which are accessible because we've got electronic records for who owns what and it creates enormous amounts of liquidity in terms of access to goos which means high-quality durable stuff gets manufactured rather than trash and the high quality durable stuff is less environmental impact because it takes the same amount of natural resources to make a crop camera as a good one and this model of the future it's the first time in my life right that I've actually had real hope that you could make the

[44:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asjf_pewvMk&t=2675s) world work environmentally well providing a decent standard of living for seven or ten million people because if we did connect together all of this data we could produce a system that was so incredibly resource elite that we can actually make most things last longer than our desire for the finish right and when the desire is exhausted because we're so bad at turning things we no longer warm into filling somebody else's needs that person is typically in a position where they have to buy a new one or no one could be just as good and if we can solve that problem we can allow the consumer groups machine to continue to flood the world with stuff but we just get rid of the stuff we don't want and more and more and more and more where people get access to consumer goods it's just the stuff is coming now because people in poor countries might wind up buying a whole bunch of stuff that we don't want anymore but this is very useful for that and that's already we just finish the process of make it super efficient right okay so it was a great example you know a car you want to use you want to track its history why because it's very expensive you don't just buy a car there's a reason to keep a record yes so you mentioned the word tag I think two or three times in years old yeah so I'm a big hole in this series I mean technologically theoretically digitally I completely agree this could work yeah but what hardware medium is so cheap and you stick it on a three dollar t-shirt ah 2d barcodes well the tasks that are inside of the t-shirts are typically in good condition as well as

[47:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asjf_pewvMk&t=2825s) the t-shirt is the washing instruction pack so those things really lost could be a 2d barcode it's imprinted it's print vcss like the printed thing about how to iron or Marcia stuff yesthank if that's they never be printed if you would encode enough information because maybe a 2ds no not maybe it's a QR code no no you say if you print it that's it good it's good enough for t-shirt well we incentivize all the big companies that now create one-off even Apple does this just in decreasing the lifecycle of their product so how do we how do we incentivize them to get along in this program because it feels like if one computer manufacturer starts to produce as a durable ownership record right a digital twin then their computers will have higher resale value which means that people will buy their computers preferentially which will for 7-month actors to change because if we think about this right if I buy a thing knowing that I can sell it for ninety percent white man forever my feeling is I'm only spending ten percent of the money but if I buy a thing and I think I've got a 50/50 chance of getting seventy five percent white paid for it but it might only get 25 percent why do I really feel like I pay full price and this is where we start thinking about things where the ownership of the thing is inherently you have to be able to afford 100 bucks for a nice 15 l20 or H&M right so make sure the first buyer you know if for the first exactly but price need the mouse there's still a whole thing about how it can be claimed and quality for this cheaper instead of furniture how can you not only constructive but also deconstructed because if you move something from Ikea

[49:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asjf_pewvMk&t=2975s) and once or twice it just all species server like feels really like your building yeah it's also completely when you speak with them those products are not designed to transform directional sub suit designs likes to actually be circular at the end yeah because they will just make a design and then say okay yeah absolutely so I think that there's a really important one here which is about modularity yeah what have you seen the grip beam no I love to look up a thing called grid be great beam is essentially a modular system for building things that look like IKEA super cheap to make incredibly flexible the idea is been around for probably 30 or 40 years they've been a few attempts to commercialize it and nobody's manage it and I keep trying to get hackerspaces to start Gridley my breweries where you can rent a bunch of the stuff use it when you're done you sell it back to the hacker space I think it'd be a business model for happy faces but the crux of this is we can't incentivize high-quality durable goods manufacturer until we fix the secondary market you can also really shift shift the model and only let people pay for their use yeah yeah read books Elvis they didn't like light bulbs but they weren't like see what a service rather than a product exactly so the service versus keeping the balance sheets of these companies yes so then it better be durable otherwise yeah that's right so the service rather than product mobile works great for corporations that are making these decisions consumers are very uncomfortable with service running product but they're increasingly comfortable with second on markets so in terms of getting high-quality durable manufacture fleet property so these

[52:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asjf_pewvMk&t=3125s) bottles fleet properties of some topic with Hamlin this stuff for the things which are fairly impersonal so worse for bicycles doesn't work for us so if we've got really good documentation its rotation about the secondary market performance the durable laptop that gets used for four or five purchasers winds up with a higher price and then a lot of the pulse part after only three purchasers you can see this with IBM ThinkPads where nobody blinks when anybody think because they know that the secondary market is super robust so I think if we've got a really good instrumentation of a secondary market performance when I look at the price tag in the shop if I can immediately access what is this worth second hand immediately I mentally discount and I think that's what creates the incentives to get really durable malefactor and I'm not suggesting that this happens overnight right three years around on thinking this but over the lifespan of the environmental crisis from here until we've achieved a sustainable civilization right I can imagine that this would be an ongoing transformation and then the eventual sustainable civilization will have to work this way or something like this so we might as well get started yeah thank you thank you wobble of the sustainable civilization this support in any kind of consumerism at all right I almost assumed that we were gonna wind up the sustainability being just gigantic warehouses 500 identical copies of everything and I think that this mobile allows for a fully diverse creative manufacturing economy on also full sustainability and I never saw that before this is the first time in my life I flew to the world be like today there is something better than eco my lizard I just want to dress like birds also the thing I think this is to keep winning for looking at climate changes everyone can consistently come up with problems why this isn't going to work but that's where it's also within everyone's power to just identify parts of the solution start earlier because at the end of the day I think we can also do a show of hands who think this is a version of

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Continues in https://guptaoption.com/texts/254-2.md (part 2 of 2).
End of [254] Vinay Talk Amsterdam October 2019, part 1 of 2. Its connections are at the top of this file; the map is https://guptaoption.com/llms.txt.