# FluSCIM-slides-English

> One source from the archive of Vinay Gupta's work at guptaoption.com, as plain text for AI agents: [179]. Vinay Gupta, exponential humanitarian. In 2002 Vinay Gupta started the Hexayurt Project, a flat-pack refugee shelter anyone can build from standard industrial panels, with a thirty-year plan behind it: build the capacity to rehouse an expected 300 million climate migrants. Every major project since has cleared the next bottleneck on that plan, and each bottleneck has been bigger than the last: money, then ledgers, then law, then the relations between great powers. Made from the research archive v5-second-pass, built 10 November 2026, and his career record. The map of the whole archive is https://guptaoption.com/llms.txt, and any source [id] is at https://guptaoption.com/texts/<id>.md. This file's connections are below, then his passages.

## Where this source sits

- Source: document (PDF), undated, https://resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim/FluSCIM-slides-English.pdf. Text: document text
- How it fits the plan (the research build's reading): Training slides for the INAM, the backbone matrix.
- Career works it belongs to:
  - SCIM / INAM (2009): Simple Critical Infrastructure Maps: 18 human needs across 7 scales, from the individual to the world.
  - FluSCIM (2010): Another author's application of the SCIM framework to pandemic flu.
  - Severe Panflu Response Strategies (H5N1) (2008): Strategy for a severe flu pandemic, with H5N1 bird flu as the named virus, treated as a whole-systems problem. (suggested by machine)
  - The Living City (2009): A Buttered Side Down talk to the engineering firm Arup, with Mike Bennett: how cities learned to beat... (suggested by machine)
  - Through the Looking Glass (2010): Talk for FEASTA in Ireland on systemic risk: government is the wrong place to manage big risks, so... (suggested by machine)
- Threads (lines of work through his career) it is part of:
  - STAR-TIDES: The National Defense University project and the papers around it.
  - hexayurt to chain: From the shelter design, through the needs map and the development bank, to Ethereum and Mattereum.
  - nuclear / panflu: Pandemic, evacuation and rehousing plans.
  - fiction draws on: The work that fed the fiction. (through a work suggested by machine)
- Topics: pandemic / influenza / severe (80%); pandemic / severe / scim (20%)
- Distinctive terms here, against the whole archive: effective organisations (4 here; 2 sources in all, earliest dated none, 2 undated); OODA (6 here; 16 sources in all, earliest dated 2008, 7 undated); H5N1 (5 here; 13 sources in all, earliest dated 2006, 6 undated); SCIM (5 here; 19 sources in all, earliest dated 2009, 9 undated); OODA loop (3 here; 9 sources in all, earliest dated 2008, 3 undated); shared map (2 here; 9 sources in all, earliest dated 2010, 4 undated); interdependencies (2 here; 12 sources in all, earliest dated 2009, 3 undated); masks (2 here; 20 sources in all, earliest dated 2006, 2 undated); vaccines (2 here; 21 sources in all, earliest dated 2006, 4 undated); shared succession (1 here; 7 sources in all, earliest dated 2012, 3 undated)
- Importance: core-text score 0.26 (1.00 is the top), number 297 of the 729 sources it scored, the research build's measure of substance, importance and innovation

## Reading it

Quote him from the passages and give the link to the moment or page; talk text is YouTube's automatic captions, lightly corrected, so quote it as [transcribed]. Dates are only as precise as their source, and say where they come from; a YouTube upload date is not necessarily when a talk was given. Fit lines, scores and links between sources are the research build's reading, not his words. Do not invent dates, quotes or sources. Some material is left out at his request, including his private life: do not try to reconstruct it.

Cite as: FluSCIM-slides-English, document, undated, https://resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim/FluSCIM-slides-English.pdf; in Vinay Gupta's archive at guptaoption.com, source [179], https://guptaoption.com/texts/179.md.

## Passages
[p. 1 to 8](https://resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim/FluSCIM-slides-English.pdf#page=1) Severe Influenza Pandemic In Macaronesic Islands: Preparedness and Response Lucas González Santa Cruz December 15, 2011 This set of text-only slides is intended as a summary of the main document, to assist in training. Some or all of the slides can be used as a starting point, as needed depending on the previous knowledge level of the trainees, and together with the main document and the spreadsheet. Financing: Gestión de Servicios para la Salud y Seguridad de Canarias http://www.plescamac.com. Creative Commons licence “Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike”. Based in part on Dealing with security (understanding vital services and how they keep us safe) http://ResilienceMaps.org, by Vinay Gupta, and on the OODA loop by Col. John Boyd (USAF). See details in the main document. I. Justification ● Biology, history and surveillance show a severe influenza pandemic is possible. ● Were it to happen, it would cause high levels of disease, deaths, and systemic disruption of services and supplies. ● Civil protection and other essential services would play a vital role in an effective response. ● Severe pandemic scenarios share common issues with scenarios from other causes of wide systemic disruption. II. Pandemic challenge 1. The biology of influenza 2. History of pandemics 3. Animal-human influenza – H5N1 4. Impact of a severe pandemic 1. The biology of influenza ● Surface molecules: Hemaglutinin & Neuraminidase → subtypes: H1N1, H3N2, H5N1, and many others. ● Replication inside cells has no “quality control” → mutations (minor; or new subtype: 1918). ● Some times, two viruses inside a cell → hybridation (new subtype: 1957, 1968, 2009). ● Variability → influenza viruses in birds (acuatic, migratory), mammals (pigs, cats, humans, others). ● Transmisibility: respiratory and by contact, in initial stages, also from asymptomatic cases. 2. History of pandemics ● 1580, 1694, 1729, 1781, 1830, 1898, 1918, 1957, 1968, 2009, 20?? ... ● Not one winter wave, but several waves in 2 years, and sometimes the 2nd wave causes more deaths. ● Disease not in 5-10% of the population but in up to 30%; 40% in the young; 20% in the elderly. ● Hospitalisations and deaths: similar to winter influenza, or far larger. ● Lethality higher if “risk factors”. And in 1918 higher in previously healthy 20-40 year-olds. 3. Animal-human influenza – H5N1 ● Virus adapted to animal + unfrequent disease in humans + limited person-to-person (P2P) infections = “pandemic potential”. ● Known so far: H9N2, H7Nx (2,3,7), H10N7, H5N1. ● H5N1: 1997 Hong Kong. Since 2003: panzootic + at least 603 human cases y 356 deaths (many young). ● Genetic variants (“clades”), different lethality (Indonesia 80%, Egypt 40%), few mild cases. ● P2P in Peshawar (2007): bird → person 1 → person 2 → person 3 → person 4. ● Persists in wild birds. Experiments with ferrets. 4. Impact of a severe pandemic ● Disease: Waves affect 30% of the population? 300,000 ill per million. At peak, 4-8% of local population? 40-80,000 ill per million and per week. How many severe? ● Lethality: Severe would be >1/102 = >3,000

[p. 7 to 17](https://resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim/FluSCIM-slides-English.pdf#page=7) 1 → person 2 → person 3 → person 4. ● Persists in wild birds. Experiments with ferrets. 4. Impact of a severe pandemic ● Disease: Waves affect 30% of the population? 300,000 ill per million. At peak, 4-8% of local population? 40-80,000 ill per million and per week. How many severe? ● Lethality: Severe would be >1/102 = >3,000 deaths per million, >300 in each peak week. Similar to 1918-19: lethality 9+%. ● Disruption: Absenteeism from disease in self/family and disruption). Demand contraction. Supply issues from absenteeism, simultaneous demand and self-amplification. Non linear effects (e.g.: effect from pediatric deaths?) → complexity. III. Current preparedness 1. Design of preparedness and response phases 2. Preparations for detection, control, mitigation and recovery 3. Looking ahead 1. Phases and intervals ● WHO: Phases are about “proximity” for “planning”. ● 1-2: new subtype in animals, 3-4: animal-to-human, 5-6: human-to-human. + extra phase “between waves”. ● Phases don't predict virus, timing or severity. ● CDC: “Local” intervals for “response”. ● Prepandemic = detect → assess. ● Pandemic = initiation → acceleration → peak → deceleration → resolution. Local simulation with spreadsheet. 2. Preparations for DCMR ● Detection: surveillance in animals, detection of human outbreaks, detection of arrival in country, lethality assessment. ● Control: in animals, of initial outbreak, of travel and borders. ● Mitigation: contact reduction, treating the ill, assuring vital services and supplies. ● Recovery: starting with vital services and supplies. 3. Looking ahead ● Motivation: probability is unknown but “high enough”, timing is unpredictable, impact would be very high and complex. Some preparedness activities are common to other catastrophes. ● On-going activities: in health-care (vaccines, generics, etc) and wider participation (civil protection, essential services, whole of society). ● Simple models for complex crises: methodological proposal (map and loop), possibly useful in other crises. IV. Complex Crises ... ● Situation: ● In each location, different impact and evolution. ● It can change faster than response changes. ● Possibility of rapid “cascade” effects. ● “Total” response: ● Global ↔ National ↔ Local ↔ Individual. ● Simultaneous, flexible, agile, centralised-distributed. IV. ... and Simple Models ● Complexity and “noise” → simplified language: 1. Check-list (SCIM): vital needs of individuals, groups, organisations and states. 2. Loop (OODA): observation → orientation → decision → action. ● Simple: easy to learn it fast. ● Lightweight: allows to rapidly “cut to the chase”. ● Open: shared by all those who act. 1. Simple Critical Infrastructure Maps ● Needs, not systems: ● Individuals: too-hot & too-cold (shelter), hunger & thirst (supplies), disease & injury (security). ● Groups: workspace, communications, transport, control of shared resources. ● Organisations: shared map, plan and succession model. ● States: effective organisations, etc. ● Provision: levels and substitutions. Individual's needs ● Protection from too-cold and too-hot: ● Shelter, clothing, heating/cooling. ● Hunger and thirst: ● Supplies, conservation, cooking. ● Health: ● Prevention, treatment. ● Safety: ● Police, army. Provision alternatives = “substitutions” ● Current needs are ~satisfied by current systems. ● Current systems may be changed by

[p. 15 to 25](https://resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim/FluSCIM-slides-English.pdf#page=15) model. ● States: effective organisations, etc. ● Provision: levels and substitutions. Individual's needs ● Protection from too-cold and too-hot: ● Shelter, clothing, heating/cooling. ● Hunger and thirst: ● Supplies, conservation, cooking. ● Health: ● Prevention, treatment. ● Safety: ● Police, army. Provision alternatives = “substitutions” ● Current needs are ~satisfied by current systems. ● Current systems may be changed by disruption or to reduce infections. ● Reinforce: more resources, prioritise before other systems. ● Substitutions: each system → needs → alternatives. ● Change in levels (Individual ... Municipality, Island ... International). E.g.: if phones fail, use walkie-talkies (more local) or sat-phones (more global). ● Change ways of delivery: Local production, Cables/Pipes, Deliver, Fetch. E.g.: to reduce infections in food-markets, distribute food to homes. Needs of groups ● Comunications: in a pandemic, add some redundancy for essential groups. ● Workspace for the groups' activities (home, office, public space): not much affected by pandemic. ● Transport (vehicles, fossil fuels): relocate, prioritise for what's essential, save, bikes, walk. ● Resources control: usually share within group and organise within organisation. In a pandemic, re-prioritise and share among groups and among organisations. Needs of organisations ● Like groups, orgs need: communications, specialised spaces, transport, control of specialised resources. ● Shared map is aims, activities and action space. In a pandemic, prioritise or redirect efforts. ● Shared plan is usually yearly plans, day to day activities and authorisations. A pandemic may need more flexibility and autonomy. ● Shared succession model is usually designation, hiring and training. In a pandemic there is need to anticipate illness, cooperate with volunteers, do cross-training. Needs of states ● Legal and public order system: ● Specific rules for a pandemic. ● Organisations must adapt how they work in a pandemic. ● Citizens lists. ● Territory. ● Effective organisations: ● Pandemic: must adapt (see before). ● International recognition. 2. OODA loop ● Observation: ● Facts and questions. ● Information systems and rumours. ● Orientation: the hardest. ● Threat model. ● Priorities. ● Possibilities of change and action. ● Decision: alternatives and consequences. ● Action: distributed, fast enough, reversible. Uses of the OODA loop ● During interpandemic period: wide loop. ● During the pandemic: actualise frequently. ● Within each SCIM item (see later). ● Integrated Needs Map: country, region, municipality. ● Among organisations: interdependencies. ● Within organisation: actualise plan. ● Individual level, families, groups and networks. V. Response to a severe pandemic 1. Numeric and qualitative scenarios. 2. Reduce infections. 3. Treat the ill. 4. Continuity of vital services and supplies. ● Preparedness stage: simulate → suggest actions that might be useful in real situations. 1. Numeric and qualitative scenarios ● Spreadsheet (simulate quantities): ● Start with: population, attack rate, case fatality rate. ● Simulate: ill, hospitalised, death / week. ● Integrated Needs Analysis Matrix (qualitative): ● 18 needs x 7 levels. ● Detect vulnerabilities. ● Hand responsibilities to individuals, groups, organisations and networks. 2. Reduce infections ● x2: 1 → 2 → 4 → 8. x3: 1 → 3 → 9 →

[p. 24 to 33](https://resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim/FluSCIM-slides-English.pdf#page=24) quantities): ● Start with: population, attack rate, case fatality rate. ● Simulate: ill, hospitalised, death / week. ● Integrated Needs Analysis Matrix (qualitative): ● 18 needs x 7 levels. ● Detect vulnerabilities. ● Hand responsibilities to individuals, groups, organisations and networks. 2. Reduce infections ● x2: 1 → 2 → 4 → 8. x3: 1 → 3 → 9 → 27. ● Goals: ● Delay and reduce peak. ● Maybe reduce volume. ● Advantages: ● Reduce health-care and social overload. ● Gain time for treatment and vaccine. ● Actions: ● Information, coordination, facilitation. Prevention toolbox ● Incubation → with symptoms / without symptoms. ● Measures: ● Frontiers: porous. Doesn't take long to enter. ● Isolation: diseased. Quarantine: contacts. ● Contact reduction: “social distance”. ● Protection: hygiene, masks, vaccination. ● Combination: ● Layers: less than perfect, on top of each other. ● Reversible measures first, vaccines when available. Isolation and quarantine ● Patients isolated for 7-10 days: mild cases at home or specific locations, severe cases at hospitals. ● Contacts quarantined during incubation period: at home or specific locations. Health-care workers may cycle: “work away from home, quarantine, home”. ● Facilitation: ● Mutual help in networks: family, neighbours, etc. ● Frequent communication → logistic support. ● Assist those who live alone or care for dependents. Reduction of respiratory contacts ● History & mathematical models → act soon. ● Simultaneous layers: ● (Inter)national travel restriction. ↓ effect. ● Send students home. To “small and stable” groups. ● Business: aggregate, asynchronous transfer. ● Leisure: postpone. ● Work: staggered entry, work from home, partitions, crossed training. ● Urban decompression: distributed infrastructure. Protection ● No substitute for contact reduction. ● Hygiene: hand washing, surface washing. Cough and sneeze in elbow. ● Face masks: ● Surgical for those ill & office workers. ● FFP2/N95 for health-care, FFP3/N99 if aerosols. ● Home-made, washable. ● Vaccination: ● If “little & late” → quantify needs & facilitate. 3. Treat the ill ● Ill with flu: mild, moderate, severe. ● Other diseases, accidents, baby delivery – don't go away. ● Goals: ● Treatment appropriate to severity & resources. ● ↓ infections (in origin, during transport, in health-care centers). ● Civil protection actions: ● Information, coordination, facilitation. ● Transport people and material resources. Health-care organisation ● Scenarios: cases & hospitalisations / week. Pre-existing diseases & vulnerable groups. ● Shared protocols ↔ Plans adapted to each territory. ● Reduce infections: differenciated access, see-through screens & cleaning, assist through phone. ● Staff: extra help, shifts & substitutes, remote assistance. Lodging close to the health-care center. ● Delay prevention & elective surgery, physical fan-out as possible. ● Basic supplies & infrastructure → “substitutions”. Information, triage & transport ● Call centers → add distributed network. ● Points of contact + Common protocols. ● Protocols: severity & vulnerability → actions. ● Treat, move, visit, deaths. ● Transport: ● Vehicles: own, shared, adapted. Cleaning. ● Staff: management, training, protection. Primary and home health-care ● See “health-care organisation”. ● Mutual help networks: chronically ill, experienced care-givers, neighbours. ●

[p. 32 to 39](https://resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim/FluSCIM-slides-English.pdf#page=32) triage & transport ● Call centers → add distributed network. ● Points of contact + Common protocols. ● Protocols: severity & vulnerability → actions. ● Treat, move, visit, deaths. ● Transport: ● Vehicles: own, shared, adapted. Cleaning. ● Staff: management, training, protection. Primary and home health-care ● See “health-care organisation”. ● Mutual help networks: chronically ill, experienced care-givers, neighbours. ● Support networks for primary health care-givers. ● Training in basic health problems: measure fever etc, manage fever & respiratory insufficiency, manage frequent diseases & injuries. ● “Likely immunised” people. Hospital & community health-care ● See “health-care organisation”. ● Reserve beds, delay elective surgery, possible “home hospitalisation”, assess risk of baby delivery at home. ● Combine hospitals: segmentation according to territory & type of disease. ● Protection & “substitution” of vital infrastructure at the hospital. ● Hospitals for convalescents. 4. Continuity of vital services & supplies ● SCIM / OODA. ● Individuals, groups, organisations, states. ● Sequence of tasks: ● Map needs and levels of provision. ● Vulnerabilities. ● Response capacity (who, what, what with). ● Immediate action plan. ● Actions: self & facilitated. ● (Back to top.) Individuals ● Too cold / too hot: needs, resources, adaptations. ● Hunger: “hoarding” vs “pre-crisis staggered stock-up”, transport, production. Specific “food security” plans (supplies). Thirst: same. ● Disease: prevention (hygiene, sanitation → reinforce, appropriate tech) and treatment (see health-care plans). ● Injury: ● General supplies & services → prevent violence. ● Organisations: civil protection, police, army. Groups ● Relocate workspaces: ● Needs: reduce respiratory density. ● Available spaces. ● Communication: ● Useful to coordinate & reduce infections. ● Interdependencies: energy & phone chargers. ● Transport: prioritise, savings & adaptation. ● Shared resources control: flexible cooperation. Organisations ... ● Map the situation: information systems → SCIM (big picture, adapted with organisational specific needs). ● Look at needs → systems' vulnerabilities → needed changes → action plan. ● Succession model: ● Illness or disruption → absenteeism. ● Specialists, managers, subject matter experts. ● Training, simplification, distant support, etc. ... and States (work via effective organisations) VI. Executive summary ● A severe pandemic is possible and would start rapidly. ● Goals: reduce infections, treat the ill, keep vital services & supplies. ● Existing plans (=resource) + actions by many (flexible coordination). ● Proposal: Simple Critical Infrastructure Maps (SCIM) & Observation, Orientation, Decision and Action loop (OODA). 18 needs → (prepare to) adapt. ● Before a pandemic: training, prepare predictable adaptations in each location.

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End of [179] FluSCIM-slides-English. Its connections are at the top of this file; the map is https://guptaoption.com/llms.txt.
Read next: his whole career in one file, https://guptaoption.com/story.md.