# Taming Black Elephants (part 2 of 2)

> One source from the archive of Vinay Gupta's work at guptaoption.com, as plain text for AI agents: [159], part 2 of 2. Vinay Gupta, exponential humanitarian. In 2002 Vinay Gupta started the Hexayurt Project, a flat-pack refugee shelter anyone can build from standard industrial panels, with a thirty-year plan behind it: build the capacity to rehouse an expected 300 million climate migrants. Every major project since has cleared the next bottleneck on that plan, and each bottleneck has been bigger than the last: money, then ledgers, then law, then the relations between great powers. Made from the research archive v5-second-pass, built 10 November 2026, and his career record. The map of the whole archive is https://guptaoption.com/llms.txt, and any source [id] is at https://guptaoption.com/texts/<id>.md. This file's connections are below, then his passages.

## Where this source sits

- Source: document (PDF), 2017-04-05 (from the career record), https://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/docs/default-source/default-document-library/mr-peter-ho-s-speechefb2087b46bc6210a3aaff0100138661.pdf. Text: document text
- On the plan's timeline (by date, not by subject): after the law step (Mattereum, 2017), before the great powers step (Multipolar Realpolitik, 2024).
- How it fits the plan (the research build's reading): Uptake of black elephant in government; context only.
- Career works it belongs to:
  - Taming Black Elephants (2017): Singapore's former civil service head took up the black elephant idea in a lecture series and book.
  - To bite the hand that feeds: survival (2010): Four-page essay: Nash equilibria lock each of us into breaking the world, so the way out is a new,... (suggested by machine)
  - "Complex systems behave unpredictably": Gupta's law of complex systems (2010): Blog essay tracing his turn from physics to complexity in his 1980s schooling, and the law he draws from... (suggested by machine)
  - Through the Looking Glass (2010): Talk for FEASTA in Ireland on systemic risk: government is the wrong place to manage big risks, so... (suggested by machine)
  - The Big Deal (2011): Four-essay blog series arguing that government has hit hard limits, so civil society, working with... (suggested by machine)
- Threads (lines of work through his career) it is part of:
  - black elephant: The black elephant term, from its naming to a Singapore lecture series.
  - goat rodeo to warlords: The goat rodeo idea, from a 2010 blog post to a 2011 one-page paper to the opening chapter of Warlords, Inc. (2015). (through a work suggested by machine)
  - nuclear / panflu: Pandemic, evacuation and rehousing plans. (through a work suggested by machine)
- Topics: Black elephants, complexity & Singapore (95%)
- Distinctive terms here, against the whole archive: Peter Ho (27 here; 6 sources in all, earliest dated 2015); black elephants (30 here; 11 sources in all, earliest dated 2009, 1 undated); wicked problems (17 here; 8 sources in all, earliest dated 2010); scenario planning (16 here; 10 sources in all, earliest dated 2015); Singapore (32 here; 39 sources in all, earliest dated 2009); Fukushima (5 here; 3 sources in all, earliest dated 2012); Black Elephant (8 here; 14 sources in all, earliest dated 2009); Brexit (2 here; 9 sources in all, earliest dated 2017); interdependencies (2 here; 12 sources in all, earliest dated 2009, 3 undated); VUCA (1 here; 6 sources in all, earliest dated 2010)
- The earliest dated source in this archive for (undated sources may be earlier): skin in the game
- Importance: core-text score 0.18 (1.00 is the top), number 390 of the 729 sources it scored, the research build's measure of substance, importance and innovation
- Related sources:
  - [208] [Taming Black Elephants (2016)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/208.md): same career work: Taming Black Elephants
  - [157] [The Black Elephant Challenge for Governments | IPS Commons (2017)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/157.md): same career work: Taming Black Elephants
- On the same works, just before: [782] [FutureRant w/ Gabriel D Vine - Vinay Gupta TEASER (2016)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/782.md); [276] [Dubai trip notes September 2016 (2016)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/276.md); [208] [Taming Black Elephants (2016)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/208.md)
- On the same works, just after: [709] [Can blockchain solve the accountability gap? | Vinay Gupta (2017)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/709.md); [157] [The Black Elephant Challenge for Governments | IPS Commons (2017)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/157.md); [268] [Thomas Bjelkeman of Akvo.org and Vinay Gupta of... (2017)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/268.md)

## Reading it

Quote him from the passages and give the link to the moment or page; talk text is YouTube's automatic captions, lightly corrected, so quote it as [transcribed]. Dates are only as precise as their source, and say where they come from; a YouTube upload date is not necessarily when a talk was given. Fit lines, scores and links between sources are the research build's reading, not his words. Do not invent dates, quotes or sources. Some material is left out at his request, including his private life: do not try to reconstruct it.

Cite as: Taming Black Elephants, document, 2017-04-05, https://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/docs/default-source/default-document-library/mr-peter-ho-s-speechefb2087b46bc6210a3aaff0100138661.pdf; in Vinay Gupta's archive at guptaoption.com, source [159], https://guptaoption.com/texts/159.md.

## Passages, part 2 of 2
[p. 15 to 17](https://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/docs/default-source/default-document-library/mr-peter-ho-s-speechefb2087b46bc6210a3aaff0100138661.pdf#page=15) April 2017. 14 IPS-Nathan Lectures The Challenges of Governance in a Complex World Lecture I – Hunting Black Swans & Taming Black Elephants: Governance in a Complex World, by Peter Ho 5 April 2017 It is not at all difficult to find wicked problems. They include the big challenges of our age, such as climate change, the environment, population, urbanisation, inequality, and so on. Most crises are wicked problems. There are many stakeholders, but they have competing perspectives, different opinions and divergent interests. Please one and you upset many others. Solve one problem and others will arise. Terrorism is a particularly wicked problem. Some of you might be surprised by this assertion, because you would think that all of us want to get rid of terrorism – except of course the terrorists. But even if everyone agreed on how to distinguish terrorists from legitimate freedom fighters, and there was consensus that terrorism should be banished, it is not clear that any policy prescriptions would gain universal acceptance. If that were the case, terrorism would not be the persistent problem that it is today, and the Islamic State would not be such a serious threat. The German sociologist, Ulrich Beck, once wrote that, “The world has become so complex that the idea of a power in which everything comes together and can be controlled in a centralised way is now erroneous.” It means that there is no single agency in government that is really equipped to deal with a wicked problem in its entirety. But, letting departments tackle different parts of a wicked problem on their own often leads to duplication or to waste and sub-optimal policies, and even to new wicked problems. The Dangers of Reductionism Efforts to understand our complex world and to deal with wicked problems often rely on an assumption – that what is complex can be reduced to simpler subsets that are easier to evaluate, and that when re-aggregated, will produce results that approximate the real world. This approach is reductionism. It is rooted in the belief that complex phenomena can be analysed in component – and simpler – parts. The assumption is that after these parts have been analysed separately, it is then possible to understand the properties of the whole in terms of the properties and the interactions of these components. This assumption informs much of Updated 6 April 2017. 15 IPS-Nathan Lectures The Challenges of Governance in a Complex World Lecture I – Hunting Black Swans & Taming Black Elephants: Governance in a Complex World, by Peter Ho 5 April 2017 the methodology of modern science today. It led to the tendency to dissect the complex world into smaller and less complex parts, and to favour explanations framed at the lowest level of scale. Arguably in government, the assumption of reductionism results in a tendency to divide big problems into smaller pieces. It goes a long way to explain the proliferation of agencies and bureaucracies as standard response to emerging and wicked problems.

[p. 17 to 18](https://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/docs/default-source/default-document-library/mr-peter-ho-s-speechefb2087b46bc6210a3aaff0100138661.pdf#page=17) dissect the complex world into smaller and less complex parts, and to favour explanations framed at the lowest level of scale. Arguably in government, the assumption of reductionism results in a tendency to divide big problems into smaller pieces. It goes a long way to explain the proliferation of agencies and bureaucracies as standard response to emerging and wicked problems. But despite the enormous importance of this approach, it gives the false impression that investigating the features of things at a holistic level is less informative than investigating the properties of the components. The Nobel laureate and physicist, Philip Anderson, argued against reductionism in his 1972 paper “More is Different”. He wrote, “The ability to reduce everything to simple fundamental laws does not imply the ability to start from those laws and reconstruct the universe. In fact, the more elementary particle physicists tell us about the nature of fundamental laws, the less relevance they seem to have to the very real problems of science, much less to those of society.” Indeed, outside the realm of science, reductionism has not been as effective in explaining phenomena in such areas as ecology and economics. Conventional efforts to model complex systems – like the Club of Rome‟s model of economic and population growth, published in 1972 in the seminal “Limits to Growth”, and which had a profound influence on the population policies of countries around the world, including Singapore – have often gotten it badly wrong because of the faults inherent in reductionism. They link parts of a complex system together, assuming that these parts interact with each other in a Newtonian fashion, with clear link between cause and effect. Unfortunately, we now realise that complex systems often defy such deterministic analysis. Complexity science abjures reductionism for the study of how systems interact with other systems, how agents interact with other agents, and then how these lead to emergent, rather Updated 6 April 2017. 16 IPS-Nathan Lectures The Challenges of Governance in a Complex World Lecture I – Hunting Black Swans & Taming Black Elephants: Governance in a Complex World, by Peter Ho 5 April 2017 than causal, results. Complexity science tools include agent-based modelling, which examines how autonomous agents interact with one another and influence system behaviour. These tools, when applied to economics and to other areas like urban planning, provide fresh and useable insights that deterministic models have failed to produce. In Singapore, government agencies are beginning to use such tools to address complex problems in areas such as land transportation, health, and housing. Net Assessments Another way to counter the problems inherent in the reductionist approach is for the planner and policy-maker to look at situations – in particular, wicked problems – more holistically. This is important because, as many have observed, in our complex world, “everything is connected to everything else.” If we look at each issue from a narrow perspective, we will miss the wood for the trees. At heart, this is also an argument in favour of

[p. 18 to 19](https://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/docs/default-source/default-document-library/mr-peter-ho-s-speechefb2087b46bc6210a3aaff0100138661.pdf#page=18) and policy-maker to look at situations – in particular, wicked problems – more holistically. This is important because, as many have observed, in our complex world, “everything is connected to everything else.” If we look at each issue from a narrow perspective, we will miss the wood for the trees. At heart, this is also an argument in favour of enlarging our field of vision to see how economics, demographics, societal issues, issues of environment and of technology, interact with each other to produce the complexities of the operating environment – the same complexity that generates wicked problems, black swans and unknown unknowns. This is a more interdisciplinary and a counter-reductionist approach. Given the complexity of our world, interdisciplinary collaboration is essential for solving the big challenges of today, in science and technology, in the social sciences, in the economy, in urbanisation, and in the environment. Why not also in geo-politics, geo-strategy and geo- economics? It is not possible, for example, to separate the conduct of foreign policy from other large national interests like economics and trade. So, there has to be a lot of internal coordination, and sharing of information. To this end, inter-agency cooperation requires good leadership to grow. This is, in part, reflected in Singapore‟s coordinating ministers, a position first established in 2003 with the appointment of the first-ever Coordinating Minister for Security and Defence. Now there are three coordinating ministers, who cover the entire spectrum of government functions – namely national security, economic and social policies, and infrastructure. The establishment of these three positions marks the transformation of the Singapore government from a traditional Updated 6 April 2017. 17 IPS-Nathan Lectures The Challenges of Governance in a Complex World Lecture I – Hunting Black Swans & Taming Black Elephants: Governance in a Complex World, by Peter Ho 5 April 2017 hierarchy into a new age system of government, characterised by a Whole-of-Government approach. Whole-of-Government This transformation is significant, because the Whole-of-Government approach is an important response to managing complexity and dealing with wicked problems. The natural – but often inappropriate – reductionist approach would be to break down a wicked problem into smaller parts, and then leave it to each agency to make its own, decentralised and bounded decisions. In contrast, an organisation that breaks down vertical silos encourages the spontaneous horizontal flow of information that will enlarge and enrich the worldview of all agencies. This in turn improves the chances that connections otherwise hidden by complexity, as well as emergent challenges and opportunities, are discovered early. It is an environment in which officers consider the spill-over effects of what they do and their impact on the policies and plans of other agencies. It is a mindset of willingly working together to achieve common national outcomes, instead of serving the particular interests of individual agencies. Take once again terrorism as an example. No single ministry or government agency – not MINDEF or MHA – has the full range of competencies or capabilities to deal with this

[p. 19 to 20](https://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/docs/default-source/default-document-library/mr-peter-ho-s-speechefb2087b46bc6210a3aaff0100138661.pdf#page=19) the policies and plans of other agencies. It is a mindset of willingly working together to achieve common national outcomes, instead of serving the particular interests of individual agencies. Take once again terrorism as an example. No single ministry or government agency – not MINDEF or MHA – has the full range of competencies or capabilities to deal with this threat on its own. Instead, the efforts of many agencies have to be coordinated and brought to bear on this problem in a Whole-of-Government approach. This insight – and the looming challenge of transnational terrorism – led the Singapore government to set up the National Security and Coordination Secretariat. Whole-of-Government looks eminently reasonable – on paper. But while Whole-of-Government may be an imperative for dealing with wicked problems, it is not easily achieved. Governments, like any large hierarchy, are organised into vertical silos. For Whole-of-Government to work, these vertical silos need to be broken down, so that information can flow horizontally to reach other agencies. But this is a Sisyphean effort. Whole-of-Government is antithetical to a deeply-ingrained bureaucratic instinct to operate within silos. More insidiously, institutional identity is sometimes so strong that it colours how each agency views or prioritises national interests. Updated 6 April 2017. 18 IPS-Nathan Lectures The Challenges of Governance in a Complex World Lecture I – Hunting Black Swans & Taming Black Elephants: Governance in a Complex World, by Peter Ho 5 April 2017 Richard Nisbett, in his book “The Geography of Thought” takes this argument one step further. He suggests cultural bias. For instance, Westerners tend to see the world in terms of individuals who are linked to others, and the surrounding environment, in axiomatic ways. From this emerges the emphasis placed in the West on individual rights and the rule of law. In contrast, East Asians – Nisbett refers primarily to the Sinic cultures – tend to see individuals, communities and their environments interacting more organically, in a dynamic ecosystem. Neither approach is more right than the other, but relying solely on either limits our ability to perceive problems from multiple angles. Extrapolating from this, it is not hard to see why one of the big challenges of government – especially the hierarchical Westminster Western model that the Singapore government is derived from – is the occurrence of bureaucratic silos, where information and coordination flow vertically, rather than develop horizontally. This is, in turn, an organisational impediment to the sharing of insights and information critical to thinking about the future. This is a big hurdle to overcome. It requires not just a lot of effort but also a real change of culture to surmount this instinct to operate within silos, in order to make Whole-of-Government work properly. Often, the leader must nag his people to remind them that the Whole-of- Government imperative takes precedence over narrow sectoral interests and perspectives. But this mindset is so important to good governance in a complex operating environment that the Whole-of-Government approach is today a priority of the

[p. 20 to 21](https://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/docs/default-source/default-document-library/mr-peter-ho-s-speechefb2087b46bc6210a3aaff0100138661.pdf#page=20) this instinct to operate within silos, in order to make Whole-of-Government work properly. Often, the leader must nag his people to remind them that the Whole-of- Government imperative takes precedence over narrow sectoral interests and perspectives. But this mindset is so important to good governance in a complex operating environment that the Whole-of-Government approach is today a priority of the Singapore government. There are inter-agency platforms that have been established to share information among ministries, statutory boards and other agencies, in order to take in different ideas and insights, so that wicked problems can be viewed in their manifold dimensions. Coordinating bodies now deal with cross-agency strategic issues, like the National Climate Change Secretariat and the National Population & Talent Division. Two years ago, the government set up the PMO Strategy Group with the mission of Whole-of-Government policy development and coordination. And most recently, the government announced the establishment of the Smart Nation & Digital Government Group to give a further Whole-of-Government push to the Smart Nation effort. Updated 6 April 2017. 19 IPS-Nathan Lectures The Challenges of Governance in a Complex World Lecture I – Hunting Black Swans & Taming Black Elephants: Governance in a Complex World, by Peter Ho 5 April 2017 Urban Planning At this stage, let me take up the issue of urban planning, a uniquely wicked problem for Singapore. While other countries have large land areas, which allow new cities to develop and replace other cities that may decline in relevance and fortune, Singapore, as a small city-state in an island, does not have that luxury. Instead, urban planning in Singapore needs to take into account the challenge of packing in housing, green space, industrial land, commercial and retail space, land for transportation needs, and military training areas, all within the confines of a small island of 718 square kilometres. This is less than half the size of London, and only two-thirds the size of New York City. In Singapore, the entire process of urban planning involves close collaboration among economic, social and development ministries and agencies. It also entails consultations with various stakeholders in the private sector and the general public. This Whole-of-Government approach enables all stakeholders to better understand interdependencies and implications of land use and strategic decisions. Planning so far ahead and for multiple possible functions is inherently complex and invariably involves many uncertainties. So, national scenarios are used to factor in these uncertainties. Plans are also regularly reviewed. This process of long-term planning and regular review has enabled Singapore to anticipate its needs far in advance, and provides the flexibility to respond to surprises and to adapt to changes over time. But such plans are only possible because of the embrace of a Whole-of-Government approach, in which trade-offs in land use are made among agencies. What is protected is not the narrow sectoral interests of the various ministries and agencies, but the larger national interest. It is not just a matter of coordination of roles and actions. At its core, Whole-of-Government

[p. 21 to 23](https://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/docs/default-source/default-document-library/mr-peter-ho-s-speechefb2087b46bc6210a3aaff0100138661.pdf#page=21) But such plans are only possible because of the embrace of a Whole-of-Government approach, in which trade-offs in land use are made among agencies. What is protected is not the narrow sectoral interests of the various ministries and agencies, but the larger national interest. It is not just a matter of coordination of roles and actions. At its core, Whole-of-Government means finding consensus on strategic priorities. Consensus is made possible because processes like scenario planning help align the government agencies to the larger national interests. Updated 6 April 2017. 20 IPS-Nathan Lectures The Challenges of Governance in a Complex World Lecture I – Hunting Black Swans & Taming Black Elephants: Governance in a Complex World, by Peter Ho 5 April 2017 Whole-of-Nation But with increasing complexity, the role of the government transforms from being a direct service provider, and becomes more of what the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research describes as a “lever of public value inside the web of multi-organisational, multi-governmental and multi-sectoral relationships”. This is sometimes called networked government, which refers to the management of the webs of relationships within and surrounding government. It is not just about strengthening the formal and informal networks within government, but also those outside of government, both locally as well as internationally. For instance, government social services rely on collaboration with non-profit and community- based organisations. Examples like this do not indicate a diminishing importance of the government‟s role. Instead, government may be understood as having multiplied its capabilities by extending its reach beyond its institutional boundaries. A government that operates in a networked manner deploys mechanisms that promote reach within the whole nation. Tackling the Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) threat has been a wicked problem for Singapore. It is not just about removing the immediate threat that the JI posed to Singapore‟s security. It also requires engaging multiple stakeholders, including community groups like the religious teachers who started the Religious Rehabilitation Group. It means engaging the private sector to help develop protective systems, processes and security infrastructure. This approach clearly needs not just many agencies of government coming together, but also bringing in the people and the private sectors. In a way, it is not just a Whole-of-Government approach, but also a Whole-of-Nation effort. This is because the JI poses a multi-dimensional threat that requires not only collaboration among security agencies, but also with social agencies that have oversight of issues affecting local communities. The Singapore approach is to fight the JI network with Whole-of-Nation networks. This is networked government in action. This Whole-of-Nation approach continues today with the SGSecure initiative, which is specifically targeted at building community networks. The SGSecure national movement aims to “sensitise, train and mobilise the community” as part of its response in the face of national threats. Updated 6 April 2017. 21 IPS-Nathan Lectures The Challenges of Governance in a Complex World Lecture I – Hunting Black Swans & Taming Black Elephants: Governance in a Complex World, by Peter Ho 5 April 2017 Another example of the

[p. 22 to 23](https://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/docs/default-source/default-document-library/mr-peter-ho-s-speechefb2087b46bc6210a3aaff0100138661.pdf#page=22) movement aims to “sensitise, train and mobilise the community” as part of its response in the face of national threats. Updated 6 April 2017. 21 IPS-Nathan Lectures The Challenges of Governance in a Complex World Lecture I – Hunting Black Swans & Taming Black Elephants: Governance in a Complex World, by Peter Ho 5 April 2017 Another example of the Whole-of-Nation approach is Our Singapore Conversation, a year-long process involving more than 600 dialogue sessions and nearly 50,000 participants. This process surfaced fresh insights for government – and for citizens – such as the desire for broader definitions of success or greater assurance about health care and retirement, that would otherwise have been much more difficult to obtain. It provided the basis for the government to update, revise and change policies in response to a changing environment. Conclusion The rise of complexity in the world today throws up enormous challenges for governments around the world. Black swans will confront them, and they will have to deal with wicked problems. Black elephants will be lurking in the background. Foresight will help governments to better deal with complexity and its challenges. The concept of governance must also change, in tandem with rising expectations and a more educated and empowered citizenry. Government-by-Agency will evolve into Whole-of-Government, which in turn will embrace the broader Whole-of-Nation approach that includes business, civil society and the man-in-the-street. Collectively, these multi-sectoral actors will change the concept of governance, even if they are not part of “government”, traditionally defined. The future of governance in a world of complexity lies in such systems-level coordination. But I should conclude by recounting Winston Churchill‟s astute advice on the essential quality of a good government leader, “It is the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn‟t happen.” Thank you. ..... Updated 6 April 2017. 22

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End of [159] Taming Black Elephants, part 2 of 2. Its connections are at the top of this file; the map is https://guptaoption.com/llms.txt.
Read next: next on the same works, [709](https://guptaoption.com/texts/709.md) Can blockchain solve the accountability gap? | Vinay Gupta (2017); the most closely related, [208](https://guptaoption.com/texts/208.md) Taming Black Elephants (2016); his whole career in one file, https://guptaoption.com/story.md.