# Defense Horizons 70 (part 1 of 3)

> One source from the archive of Vinay Gupta's work at guptaoption.com, as plain text for AI agents: [12], part 1 of 3. Vinay Gupta, exponential humanitarian. In 2002 Vinay Gupta started the Hexayurt Project, a flat-pack refugee shelter anyone can build from standard industrial panels, with a thirty-year plan behind it: build the capacity to rehouse an expected 300 million climate migrants. Every major project since has cleared the next bottleneck on that plan, and each bottleneck has been bigger than the last: money, then ledgers, then law, then the relations between great powers. Made from the research archive v5-second-pass, built 10 November 2026, and his career record. The map of the whole archive is https://guptaoption.com/llms.txt, and any source [id] is at https://guptaoption.com/texts/<id>.md. This file's connections are below, then his passages.

## Where this source sits

- Source: document (PDF), 2009-12 (from the career record), https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333/pdf/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333.pdf. Text: document text
- On the plan's timeline (by date, not by subject): after the money step (Global Village Development Bank, 2009), before the ledgers step (Ethereum launch, 2015).
- How it fits the plan (the research build's reading): Shows the six-ways-to-die model in use for defence humanitarian networks, the knowledge layer for life support.
- Career works it belongs to:
  - Defense Horizons 70 (2009): Co-authored National Defense University paper on supporting stressed populations with distributed talent.
  - Expedient Infrastructure for Transient Populations (EITP) (2007): The 2007 program on shelter and infrastructure for 100,000 to 1,000,000 displaced people, between civilian... (suggested by machine)
  - STAR-TIDES (2007): Helped start STAR-TIDES, a National Defense University project on supporting populations under stress. (suggested by machine)
  - Briefing to the STAR-TIDES team at National Defense University (2008): Recorded briefing to the STAR-TIDES team at NDU, with a seven-point outline and the reading list behind... (suggested by machine)
  - The Physical Aspects of Distributed Infrastructure (2008): Design study for ultra-low-cost solar thermal homes off the grid: cooling from the ground and evaporation,... (suggested by machine)
- Threads (lines of work through his career) it is part of:
  - STAR-TIDES: The National Defense University project and the papers around it.
  - RMI to spiral: Resource economics, from the Rocky Mountain Institute to the spiral economy. (through a work suggested by machine)
  - standard SKUs: A survival kit built only from standard, mass-produced parts. (through a work suggested by machine)
- Topics: STAR–TIDES / Starfish — distributed humanitarian knowledge networks (96%)
- Distinctive terms here, against the whole archive: TIDES (107 here; 34 sources in all, earliest dated 2002, 5 undated); Starfish (13 here; 5 sources in all, earliest dated 2009); NDU (11 here; 4 sources in all, earliest dated 2008); ShelterBox (8 here; 2 sources in all, earliest dated 2007); SSTR (9 here; 8 sources in all, earliest dated 2006); Afghanistan (17 here; 27 sources in all, earliest dated 2009, 1 undated); Linton Wells (6 here; 4 sources in all, earliest dated 2009); Strong Angel (8 here; 8 sources in all, earliest dated 2002, 1 undated); EITP (3 here; 2 sources in all, earliest dated 2007); unity of effort (4 here; 5 sources in all, earliest dated 2009)
- The earliest dated source in this archive for (undated sources may be earlier): Singapore; SEC; Afghanistan; interoperability; six ways people die; North Korea; Starfish; unity of effort; Sphere standards; Linton Wells
- Importance: core-text score 0.48 (1.00 is the top), number 101 of the 729 sources it scored, the research build's measure of substance, importance and innovation
- Related sources:
  - [121] ["STAR–TIDES and Starfish Networks: Supporting Stressed... (2009)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/121.md): same career work: Defense Horizons 70
  - [8] [Municipal Administration of Cities in Crisis (2013)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/8.md): close in content (cosine 0.90)
- On the same works, just before: [70] [The systemic risks model for survival | The Bucky-Gandhi... (2008)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/70.md); [17] [The Physical Aspects of Distributed Infrastructure (2008)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/17.md); [27] [Index of /hope_for_the_world (2009)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/27.md)
- On the same works, just after: [99] [User:Vinay Gupta/Gupta State Failure Management Archive (2011)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/99.md); [824] [Index of /__CRASHPAD (2011)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/824.md); [78] [Living Video and the Akvo Video Strategy | The... (2011)](https://guptaoption.com/texts/78.md)

## Reading it

Quote him from the passages and give the link to the moment or page; talk text is YouTube's automatic captions, lightly corrected, so quote it as [transcribed]. Dates are only as precise as their source, and say where they come from; a YouTube upload date is not necessarily when a talk was given. Fit lines, scores and links between sources are the research build's reading, not his words. Do not invent dates, quotes or sources. Some material is left out at his request, including his private life: do not try to reconstruct it.

Cite as: Defense Horizons 70, document, 2009-12, https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333/pdf/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333.pdf; in Vinay Gupta's archive at guptaoption.com, source [12], https://guptaoption.com/texts/12.md.

## Passages, part 1 of 3
[p. 1](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333/pdf/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333.pdf#page=1) Defense Number 70 A publication of the Horizons Center for Technology and National Security Policy National Defense University D e c e m b e r 2 0 0 9 STAR–TIDES and Starfish Networks: Supporting Stressed Populations with Distributed Talent by Linton Wells II, Walker Hardy, Vinay Gupta, and Daniel Noon Overview A Starfish Organization The Department of Defense increasingly is involved in In The Starfish and the Spider, Ori Brafman and Rod Beckstrom postwar stabilization and reconstruction, humanitarian assis- explore two competing methods of organization. The spider represents tance and disaster relief missions, capacity-building of partner a traditional, hierarchical organization with one leader having cen- nations at home and abroad, and other such complex operations. tralized responsibilities not replicated in the rest of the organization. To provide sustainable support to stressed populations in these Destroy the head and the spider dies. A starfish organization is distrib- environments, an international, networked, knowledge-sharing uted; members’ roles and responsibilities (including leadership selec- research project called Sustainable Technologies, Acceler- tion and refinement) can adapt rapidly to changing circumstances.3 ated Research–Transformative Innovation for Development Sustainable Technologies, Accelerated Research–Transformative and Emergency Support (STAR–TIDES)1 encourages innovative Innovation for Development and Emergency Support (STAR–TIDES) is approaches to public-private collaboration, whole-of-govern- a networked effort that combines centralized and decentralized types ment solutions, and transnational engagement. It leverages a of organizations. Its greatest strength is an extended network of inter- distributed network of people and organizations to conduct ested individuals, businesses, government offices (civil and military), research, support real world contingencies, and bridge gaps universities, and other entities from Australia to Singapore to northern among disparate communities. Europe.4 Within this extended network, a steering team of 7 to 10 peo- The three main goals of STAR–TIDES are to enhance ple is being formed to set broad priorities for outreach, research, event the ability of civilian coalitions (business, government, and coordination, and technology integration. The team is supported by a civil society) to operate in stressed environments, extend the small core to execute guidance and oversee engagement with particu- military’s ability to work with civilians in such situations, and lar TIDES projects. Most importantly, the steering and core teams act economize by identifying cost-effective logistic solutions and together as a catalyst to engage the exceptional energies and talents rationalizing supply chains. that reside in the extended network. Some people are dedicated full- STAR–TIDES fosters unity of effort among diverse orga- time by their organizations to support the project, some are part-time, nizations when there is no unity of command. The project is and most are volunteers. building a repository of information about potential solutions The broad scope of available expertise has helped STAR–TIDES to provide “knowledge on demand” to support decisionmakers investigate such diverse areas as stability, security, transition, and and those working in the field, rather than act as an operating reconstruction (SSTR) in Afghanistan, humanitarian assistance/ agency. Information collected is made available in the public disaster relief (HADR) in tropical regions, building partner capacity domain via a Web

[p. 1 to 2](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333/pdf/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333.pdf#page=1) has helped STAR–TIDES to provide “knowledge on demand” to support decisionmakers investigate such diverse areas as stability, security, transition, and and those working in the field, rather than act as an operating reconstruction (SSTR) in Afghanistan, humanitarian assistance/ agency. Information collected is made available in the public disaster relief (HADR) in tropical regions, building partner capacity domain via a Web site,2 and feedback, opinions, and recommen- (BPC), and defense support to civil authorities (DSCA) in the United dations from users are encouraged. States. The network has supported responses to real world events— including wildfires in southern California, Federal Emergency Man- agement Agency (FEMA) trailer replacement, shelter solutions for December 2009 Defense Horizons 1 the Canadian Arctic, Cyclone Nargis relief in Burma, and election- building and stability operations, solutions need implementation sys- monitoring in Afghanistan. tematically in the near and long term. The average stay in a refugee While the STAR–TIDES core facilitates interactions among camp is over 7 years, a situation that requires completely different solu- people, processes, organizations, and technology, many of the most tions and resourcing approaches than immediate responses. Strategies valuable ideas have come from the extended network. The Web site, in nearly all of these cases should be bottom-up, focusing on the needs email threads, blogs, Twitter streams, and other fora encourage col- of the stressed population rather than the interests of aid providers, laboration among participants. The project is building a knowledge and strategies should link, where possible, to top-down frameworks. repository containing ideas for potential solutions and best practices Solutions must be sustainable by those who will have to live with them. in support of stressed populations, arranged to encourage use and Consequently, STAR–TIDES approaches focus on the needs of feedback by as many people as possible. The long-term goal is to have a stressed population for shelter, water, power, and other essential the repository be updated remotely and continuously by credible, dis- infrastructures and services. Military logisticians have noted that the persed contributors and accessible by interested parties through natu- deployable equipment that the Department of Defense (DOD) can bring ral language queries with minimum involvement from the core. to support such situations often is expensive, committed to operations STAR–TIDES does not provide assistance directly to stressed plans, and signed for on custody cards—so it cannot be left behind to populations. Its main products are information and reachback capa- help build the capacity of the partner nation. At the same time, the cap- bilities to support decisionmakers and those working in the field. ital-intensive infrastructures of the developed world are not likely avail- Rapid updates are important as field experience provides new insights, able, either because they have been disrupted or were not operating in which reinforce the distributed nature of the STAR–TIDES approach. the first place. The TIDES part of STAR–TIDES began by addressing “transportable infrastructures” to encourage cost-effective, nimble, and efficient approaches over a wide Policy Background STAR–TIDES approaches focus range of circumstances (develop- Since 2004, U.S. policy and ment and

[p. 2](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333/pdf/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333.pdf#page=2) able, either because they have been disrupted or were not operating in which reinforce the distributed nature of the STAR–TIDES approach. the first place. The TIDES part of STAR–TIDES began by addressing “transportable infrastructures” to encourage cost-effective, nimble, and efficient approaches over a wide Policy Background STAR–TIDES approaches focus range of circumstances (develop- Since 2004, U.S. policy and ment and emergency support) that national security organizations on the needs of a stressed do not depend on deployable, costly have changed significantly in ways military systems or fixed terres- that promote engagement with population for shelter, water, trial facilities. A key element is a civil-military mission partners in “whole-systems” concept that looks complex operations. Collectively, power, and other essential at cross-cutting links among differ- 5 these reflect major policy and doc- ent infrastructures. trine changes for the U.S. military, STAR–TIDES does not try to increasing emphasis on preconflict infrastructures and services provide solutions to all problems peacekeeping, capacity-building of stressed populations. For exam- in partner nations, postwar stabilization and reconstruction, and ple, security, food supplies, and medical care are considered “associ- humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. The implications of these ated activities” at present. The STAR–TIDES distributed approach changes are still evolving, and the new guidance recognizes that the allows the network to reach out to people with various skills for sorts of problems that generate complex operations6 cannot be solved assistance, and the integrated planning process (described below) by military means alone. can adapt these considerations for particular circumstances. STAR–TIDES thus supports U.S. national strategy, policy, and military doctrine, and is consistent with recent statements by the Sec- Infrastructure retaries of Defense and State calling for increased use of smart power7 initiatives, greater interagency cooperation,8 and the “3D” approach of The underlying model for STAR–TIDES and its whole-systems diplomacy, defense, and development. approach to infrastructure solutions is based on the Hexayurt Project’s “six ways people die” model.9 These are too hot, too cold, thirst, hunger, illness, and injury. Shelters can help mitigate the first two risks, sup- Methodologies ply chains can address thirst and hunger, public health and medicine Effective strategies for supporting stressed populations must can mitigate many illnesses, and safety and security can reduce the consider short-term and long-term situations (from multiweek disas- likelihood of injury. ter relief to multiyear refugee camps), in domestic and foreign venues, An example of the whole-systems approach is integrated cooking. with or without military involvement. In some cases, such as disasters, A combination of solar ovens and high-efficiency stoves, plus retained responses must be rapid and flexible. In other cases, such as capacity- heat baskets containing stones or bricks, can significantly reduce fuel use compared to open-pit fires. If properly tied to other infrastruc- tures, the heat used for cooking could sterilize water, and use of hot Dr. Linton Wells II is Distinguished Research Professor and Transformation stones and bricks for heating could reduce public health risks from Chair in the Center for Technology and National Security Policy (CTNSP) at the smoke

[p. 2 to 3](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333/pdf/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333.pdf#page=2) fuel use compared to open-pit fires. If properly tied to other infrastruc- tures, the heat used for cooking could sterilize water, and use of hot Dr. Linton Wells II is Distinguished Research Professor and Transformation stones and bricks for heating could reduce public health risks from Chair in the Center for Technology and National Security Policy (CTNSP) at the smoke inhalation from open fires, especially in shelters. Lowered fuel National Defense University. Walker Hardy is a Research Associate in CTNSP. demand could mitigate deforestation, give people more time for non– Vinay Gupta is a Partner at Buttered Side Down and directs the Hexayurt fuel-gathering activities, and reduce security risks to gatherers. Project. Daniel Noon is a Staff Member in the Education and Training Center Effective information-sharing can help with early detection at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Comments and questions may be addressed to and treatment or isolation of some infectious diseases. Information [email removed] or [email removed] and communications technology (ICT) can help outside partici- 2 Defense Horizons December 2009 Table. Examples of STAR–TIDES Infrastructures Type Example Shelter Indigenously based systems wherever possible: hexayurts, ShelterBox (Rotary Club’s integrated support system), cost- efficient commercial shelters, etc. Some 75 types of relatively inexpensive shelters have been identified so far. Water Solar water pasteurization, low-power filtration, reverse osmosis units. The Dutch nongovernmental organization Akvo (www.akvo.org) has developed integrated approaches to analyzing water issues that STAR–TIDES is leveraging. Power Solar panels, wind turbines, and micro-hydro, with integrating power controllers where applicable. Indigenous manufacturing, or at least assembly, is preferred. Integrated cooking Combinations of solar, combustion stoves, and retained heat Heating/lighting/cooling LED lighting, low-wattage cooling fans, insulation, whole-systems approaches to reuse heat from integrated cooking Sanitation Chemicals that neutralize harmful bacteria, but are environmentally safe. Innovative research in flooded area sanitation is being done in Singapore, and Akvo has comprehensive information on sanitation. Information and Information transport mechanisms such as portable satellite dishes, microwave links, and mesh networks; bridging communication technologies equipment to link to local communication systems; robust, low-power computers, such as One Laptop Per Child, geospatial information systems, and related products pants and indigenous populations mitigate consequences through activities is that almost no solution is suitable for all environments resource management, security, enhanced situational awareness, (for example, shelters deployed for winter snows may not be useful in and advanced planning for future crises. ICT applications can be tropical floods). The single exception seems to be light-emitting diode designed to provide useful services even when bandwidth is lim- (LED) lighting—although it may be too expensive for some users. ited. Human interoperability research could help to establish trust within the social networks involved. Scenario-based Planning and Policy Support Based on the initial expertise of the project’s participants, the six ways to die model, and interest expressed by participants in related In addition to the infrastructure-based approaches described projects, STAR–TIDES initially focused on seven infrastructures: shel- above, support to stressed populations involves social, policy, opera- ter, water, power, integrated cooking (solar, combustion, retained heat), tional, legal, regulatory,

[p. 3](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333/pdf/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333.pdf#page=3) Policy Support Based on the initial expertise of the project’s participants, the six ways to die model, and interest expressed by participants in related In addition to the infrastructure-based approaches described projects, STAR–TIDES initially focused on seven infrastructures: shel- above, support to stressed populations involves social, policy, opera- ter, water, power, integrated cooking (solar, combustion, retained heat), tional, legal, regulatory, and financial issues, plus a host of other heating/lighting/cooling, sanitation, and ICT (see table). STAR–TIDES questions. To address these in an integrated way, focus on problems evaluates potential solutions in these categories according to principles of interest to stakeholders, and support a planning process that might of whole-systems integration, plus three additional constraints: help mitigate needs in advance of a crisis, STAR–TIDES often exam- ines problems in the context of scenarios. Specific research depends ■ The solution must be suitable (inexpensive, available, cultur- on available resources, but based on inputs from combatant com- ally appropriate) and owned, operated, and sustained by the manders, civilian government organizations, nongovernmental orga- local population, or provisioned from relatively limited budgets. nizations (NGOs), academics, and others, STAR–TIDES is looking at ■ Depending on the situation, individual components might four scenarios: need to be small and light, so that a family can travel with its own infrastructure. ■ SSTR in Afghanistan, particularly renewable energy in remote ■ The components should be common, off-the-shelf items to villages and ICT in the eastern province of Nangarhar around help meet the demand spike in a crisis. Indigenous and/or the city of Jalalabad environmentally friendly materials should be used wher- ■ HADR in tropical regions, such as western Central America, ever possible. the Caribbean, or the western Pacific ■ DSCA in and around Washington, DC. This would involve An early effort to build an integrated, transportable infrastruc- natural or manmade disasters, and would focus on improv- ture system was the Hexayurt Project.10 The system is designed for a ing coordination among Federal, state, and local authorities, long-stay refugee camp scenario in dry climates. The system repre- businesses, and the populace sents an existence proof of the project’s goals; on paper, this system ■ BPC in sub-Saharan Africa, especially focused on refugees. could provide all basic services to a stressed population, other than food supplies and medical care. Each scenario is examined through a 10-step process. For illustra- The hexayurt infrastructure package met the first two conditions tive purposes, the examples given below are built around the Central but fell short on the third because it required exotic items such as American HADR scenario. wood-gasification stoves and building materials that might be unavail- 1. Postulate a desired endstate and success metrics, and build able in some areas. However, it did demonstrate the feasibility of pro- paths to them from the initial scenario condition. When should peo- viding all basic services—drinking water, a safe toilet, cooking, even ple be out of temporary shelters and back into permanent housing? lighting and recharging of a cell phone—from simple items. Should people be relocated to

[p. 3 to 4](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333/pdf/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333.pdf#page=3) and build able in some areas. However, it did demonstrate the feasibility of pro- paths to them from the initial scenario condition. When should peo- viding all basic services—drinking water, a safe toilet, cooking, even ple be out of temporary shelters and back into permanent housing? lighting and recharging of a cell phone—from simple items. Should people be relocated to less vulnerable areas? How will first Improving the fit of infrastructures to prevent death and enhance responders reach the victims? What services need to be provided to welfare in specific scenarios is a core goal of the STAR–TIDES net- meet critical needs? work. One of the lessons learned to date from research and field December 2009 Defense Horizons 3 Figure. Integrated Integrated ResearchResearch Areas Areas Gather, Share, and Social Network Policy, Doctrine, Legal and Resource Train, Exercise, Evaluate Development and and Field regulatory Requirements and Educate information on Trust-building Operating (L) (R) (E) Capabilities (C) (S) Procedures (P) • Research the 7 • Conduct human/ • Existing policy/ • Review legal • Acquisition • Demonstrate infrastructures organizational doctrine and regulatory • Transport existing capabilities Inventory research • Compare to concerns • Develop • Warehouse knowledge • Identify best operating repository practices procedures • Knowledge- • Accelerate • Identify new • Apply • Relate • Real-world sharing trust-building policy issues scenario- scenario- experiments • Collaboration • Adjust as specific issues based logistics • Refine • Identity needed • Find cost- solutions Improve • Identify and avoidance management build • Unclassified opportunities coalitions of imagery-sharing business, government and civil • Draft pending • Regulatory • Work across • Train the trainers • Develop stakeholders policies options multiple • Exercise the scenarios with stakeholders • Develop and • Legislative stakeholders units • Match solution • Work promulgate change • Incorporate Help sets to scenarios together with policies proposals lessons learned • Determine coalition • Change Implement curricula delivery sources • Allocate resources Associated Areas (A): Medical/Public Health, Food Supply, Security, Other 2. Postulate solution sets appropriate to the scenario’s circum- ■ empowered citizens (imagine how different the situation stances. Which combinations of shelter, water, power, cooking, sanita- might have been if everyone in New Orleans had stored 3 tion, communications, and information services would likely work best days’ worth of food and water before Katrina). As an example in Central American environments in the rainy season and afterward? of ways to empower civilians, STAR–TIDES is working with 3. Identify the coalition of business, government, and civil soci- gamers to write scenarios (for cell phones and projects such as One Laptop Per Child) that could teach children how to ety needed to implement the solutions on the ground. What part of prepare themselves and their families better for disasters and the local government provides FEMA-like functions? What local lan- then how to respond after disaster strikes. guages are involved? Will indigenous NGOs be engaged? Are there local businesses that can be leveraged? How do U.S. Southern Com- 6. Address legal and regulatory issues (such

[p. 4 to 5](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333/pdf/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333.pdf#page=4) solutions on the ground. What part of prepare themselves and their families better for disasters and the local government provides FEMA-like functions? What local lan- then how to respond after disaster strikes. guages are involved? Will indigenous NGOs be engaged? Are there local businesses that can be leveraged? How do U.S. Southern Com- 6. Address legal and regulatory issues (such as customs clearance mand (USSOUTHCOM), U.S. Agency for International Development and export controls). (USAID)/Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA), the 7. Estimate resources needed for each of the above (this might United Nations (UN), and others interact with them? save all parties funds through cost-effective logistics and supply chain 4. Refine the scenarios, desired endstates, metrics, and solution alignment). The actual allocation of resources would be done through sets, in concert with the appropriate local coalition leaders, U.S. enti- established budget and acquisition processes. ties, and international players so the solutions and metrics meet local 8. Work through the field operating procedures (including mili- needs and are executable in the long run. For example, there may have tary tactics, techniques, and procedures) to ensure consistency with been about 180,000 homeless after Hurricane Mitch in 1998, but a com- policies and allow people on the ground to work well together. parable hurricane today would leave possibly 250,000 homeless. 9. Develop the training and exercise programs among the vari- 5. Identify sources of supply for the solutions, for which there are ous members of the civil-military coalition to sustain progress and four main options: capture lessons learned. In the longer term, adjust curricula at appro- priate educational institutions. Explore broad training, exercise, and ■ government stockpiles or contracts (USAID/OFDA or DOD, educational partnerships. plus FEMA/Department of Homeland Security in the United 10. Assess progress and adjust as needed. States, host governments, and so forth) ■ nongovernmental stockpiles or contracts (UN, NGOs, private Ideally, these steps would be taken well in advance of a crisis, volunteer organizations [PVOs]) thus forming the basis for planning and consequence mitigation mea- ■ commercial supply chain—indigenous and international sures. Since information will be widely shared via the STAR–TIDES 4 Defense Horizons December 2009 Web site, others can benefit from lessons learned from any scenario ■ C  onsider what alternatives to traditional command and control and apply them to their own situations. in complex contingencies11 need to be designed and imple- mented for disparate stakeholders to focus on a problem, put Research Areas together a suitably agile structure to meet the needs of the situation, and converge the resources to get the job done.12 To enable diverse organizations to focus on problems and develop The 10 steps for investigating scenarios leverage a range of a shared situational awareness of what is going on, network- activities conducted within a framework of 6 broad research areas enabled capabilities that link as many participants as possible with links to associated activities. Research in some areas may not are essential. Achieving those capabilities requires an underly- be done to support

[p. 5](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333/pdf/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333.pdf#page=5) steps for investigating scenarios leverage a range of a shared situational awareness of what is going on, network- activities conducted within a framework of 6 broad research areas enabled capabilities that link as many participants as possible with links to associated activities. Research in some areas may not are essential. Achieving those capabilities requires an underly- be done to support a particular scenario (such as improved collabo- ing data strategy that allows all information on the network ration tools, or ways to accelerate trust-building). However, as the to be discoverable, accessible, understandable, and trusted. broad research agenda develops, it can contribute to building a whole- (This relates to the “improve knowledge-sharing/collaboration/ of-government, public-private, transnational process that can help identity management/unclassified imagery sharing” under the align strategies, goals, objectives, and policies with capabilities and first column of the figure.) resource requirements. The overall approach is shown in the figure. The research area categories and some of the related topics are 4. Legal and Regulatory Issues: amplified below. ■ C  larify the legal challenges associated with transferring goods and services bought with certain types of funds to other areas 1. Gather, Share, and Evaluate Information on Capabilities: under different circumstances—for example, leaving military ■ L  everaging the seven STAR–TIDES infrastructures, gather, equipment behind for disaster victims to use. share, and evaluate information about capabilities that are ■ Understand what regulatory and other issues must be useful to, and sustainable by, people on the ground in the addressed in particular scenarios (such as customs and bor- affected area. Provide opportunities for ongoing feedback der clearance or export controls). from field experiences. ■ Acquisition of these capabilities and delivery to the field are 5. Resource Requirements: accomplished through local coalitions of business, government ■ Different scenarios will require different resourcing (civil and military), and civil society (NGOs, academia, con- approaches, from immediate crisis response to long-term cerned citizens) in conjunction with international organiza- capacity-building and sustainment. tions. Such acquisition efforts and field operations are outside ■ Aligning the four different sources of supply described in step the STAR–TIDES scope, per se, but STAR–TIDES shares infor- 5 of the scenario can save everyone money. mation with such efforts and draws information from them. The focus on local coalitions integrates with social network 6. Train, Exercise, and Educate: development and trust-building. ■ T he trainers must be trained first, and then those who will use ■ Enhance situational awareness by designing, sharing, and the infrastructures in the field. Rotary Clubs do an excellent evaluating information services to support field operations. job supporting distribution of the ShelterBox disaster relief kit13 Much of recent STAR–TIDES research has focused on improv- by deploying a team of trainers who speak the local language to ing geospatial information system products and shared situ- teach Rotarians in the affected area how to set up the tents and ational awareness use the ShelterBox equipment, so they in turn can train survivors. ■ Exercise programs must be established to practice, refine, and

[p. 5 to 6](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333/pdf/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333.pdf#page=5) has focused on improv- by deploying a team of trainers who speak the local language to ing geospatial information system products and shared situ- teach Rotarians in the affected area how to set up the tents and ational awareness use the ShelterBox equipment, so they in turn can train survivors. ■ Exercise programs must be established to practice, refine, and 2. Social Network Development and Trust-building: revisit issues and incorporate lessons learned. Some broadly ■ L earn how to develop social networks and build trust with non- inclusive exercises can be used as models, including Operation traditional, civil-military partners before a crisis. Distinguish Golden Phoenix and the annual Fuerzas Aliadas Humanitar- between approaches that could work anywhere and those spe- ias disaster management event among more than 20 Central cific to particular scenarios. A mix of skills will be needed— American and Caribbean nations, U.S. Army South, and trans- the Bahasa Indonesian–speaking, scuba-diving neuroscientist national institutions. who could be perfect for tsunami relief in Southeast Asia might ■ Educational curricula need to be changed to capture lessons be of little help in an Andean earthquake, so a diverse, stand- learned, and behaviors must be adjusted accordingly. ing network needs to be nurtured continuously. ■ Examine ways to accelerate trust-building, even in stressed Associated Areas. When STAR–TIDES began, the members of environments. the team had no experience with areas such as public health or agri- ■ L ink to research on human interoperability and human, social, culture. In addition, security was not included as a core area since cultural, and behavioral efforts. it is handled by the military, law enforcement, and others. Hence, these issues are treated as being “associated areas,” relying on oth- 3. Policy, Doctrine, Operating Procedures: ers’ expertise. This focus may evolve in the future. ■ Review high-level policies and doctrine for sufficiency and rec- ommend changes as appropriate. ■ Examine how to convert policy and doctrine into field operat- Starfish Analogy ing procedures and communicate those procedures in ways STAR–TIDES neither needs nor wants to control all the research that let people on the ground work effectively. done across these broad areas. If research funded by other projects is December 2009 Defense Horizons 5 producing results in some of these areas, and funders are willing to and information-sharing. In 2006, STRONG ANGEL III (SA III) share it, the results will gladly be incorporated. There is no desire to served as an “integrated disaster response demonstration” that make this a large, centralized project. Such an approach would fail. included elements of both a global pandemic illness and cyberter- For example, much work on information-sharing already is being done rorism. The focus was on a domestic U.S. scenario in which “the under the auspices of the Defense Information Systems Agency (DISA). citizens of a community are deprived of power, cell phones, and Research into social network development and trust-building is being Internet access, and are beyond the immediate reach of Federal sponsored by the Under Secretary of Defense for

[p. 6](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333/pdf/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333.pdf#page=6) rorism. The focus was on a domestic U.S. scenario in which “the under the auspices of the Defense Information Systems Agency (DISA). citizens of a community are deprived of power, cell phones, and Research into social network development and trust-building is being Internet access, and are beyond the immediate reach of Federal sponsored by the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technol- assistance.”17 One key objective was to tap the expertise and cre- ogy, and Logistics and others. Policies are developed through many dif- ativity within an affected community, including public-private part- ferent channels. Exercise planning and execution are dispersed. nerships. A second was to develop social tools and techniques to Eventually, the STAR–TIDES Web site will be populated with encourage collaborative cooperation between responders and the information from any source (which will be given full credit), and then population they serve during postdisaster reconstruction. used to share information and gather feedback. A goal is to migrate to SA III participants included a wide range of public and pri- genuine Web 2.0–type formats that promote interactions, as opposed vate organizations.18 Much progress was made, but the results to just having readable Web pages. In an ideal endstate, STAR–TIDES showed how much work remains to be done. Despite having tre- resources and processes would be distributed to many centers and mendous resources and knowledge at their disposal, the SA III serve as a catalyst to encourage the participants were slow to achieve ongoing operation of a starfish net- without the ability to unity of effort as the situation work based on a distributed infor- unfolded. Wireless networks fre- mation and innovation platform. work effectively with these quently interfered with each A starfish network does not other while standing up. After function without sharing informa- stakeholders, the United States continuing problems with ad hoc, tion. STAR–TIDES embraces this poorly synchronized approaches, idea and holds that to engage effec- cannot achieve the social, leaders stepped forward to help tively with a wide variety of enti- move the recovery process. These ties in these environments, DOD political, and economic goals were important insights. Fairly must find ways to share informa- straightforward lessons have tion properly with these players.14 Such entities include aid orga- for which military forces have been repeated from Indonesia to New Orleans, while corrections nizations, local populations and consistently have proved hard to governments, indigenous security been committed implement. This experience rein- services, NGOs, international orga- forces the need to define clear nizations, commercial firms, and even individuals. Without the ability operating procedures that are understandable to field personnel to work effectively with these stakeholders, the United States cannot and train with them. Highlighting that more attention must be paid achieve the social, political, and economic goals for which military to these recurring problems was part of the experimental goals of forces have been committed. Thus, these smart power capabilities the STRONG ANGEL series. must be core elements of national strategy from the beginning of the planning process. Charrette In 2002,

[p. 6 to 7](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333/pdf/GOVPUB-D5_400-PURL-gpo41333.pdf#page=6) with them. Highlighting that more attention must be paid achieve the social, political, and economic goals for which military to these recurring problems was part of the experimental goals of forces have been committed. Thus, these smart power capabilities the STRONG ANGEL series. must be core elements of national strategy from the beginning of the planning process. Charrette In 2002, the Rocky Mountain Institute sponsored a charrette Origins (brainstorming session) to rethink refugee-and-displaced-persons STAR–TIDES developed through a series of events that high- settlements from scratch.19 The focus was on UN High Commissioner lighted some of the basic problems as well as the policy and pro- on Refugees concerns—energy, site, water and sanitation, com- cedural deficits that have become the focus of its research. STAR– munications, education, health, economic development, food and TIDES also addresses needs identified by previous work done by nutrition, and construction and shelter. Participants also considered the Center for Technology and National Security Policy (CTNSP) at security, light, and refrigeration. A key purpose was to create a settle- the National Defense University (NDU).15 It builds on the evolution ment design methodology and template for helping displaced people of policy and doctrine since 2004 and draws on experiences from quickly—in short, a primer for aid workers. The charrette also exam- the tsunami and Katrina relief efforts, three STRONG ANGEL dem- ined ways to improve the international Sphere Project standards for onstrations (2000–2006),16 and reconstruction efforts in Iraq and refugee populations.20 Innovative outcomes included the Hexayurt Afghanistan. In each case, difficulties in communication, collabora- Project and the Life Box (where packing materials were impregnated tion, and information-sharing with various partners have been iden- with seeds).21 Equally importantly, the charrette brought together indi- tified as obstacles to mission success. viduals with diverse skills whose interactions continue to make signifi- cant contributions to STAR–TIDES. STRONG ANGEL Demonstrations Tsunami Relief Beginning in 2000, the U.S. military sponsored a series of dem- onstrations known as STRONG ANGEL to improve civil-military As part of the intensive U.S. and international relief effort interactions in areas such as medical care, language translation, after a tsunami struck the Bay of Bengal on December 26, 2004, the 6 Defense Horizons December 2009 Office of the Secretary of Defense sent a small assessment team to than $800,000 in private sector engagement, even under the ground the region to identify, address when possible, and document issues rules that participation in the demonstrations did not constitute gov- in civil-military relief efforts.22 This team included a Navy doctor, ernment endorsement of any particular solution. civilian doctor, and retired Navy flight officer. They spent several Phase II activities continued through fiscal year 2008, and weeks traveling between UN posts in Jakarta and Banda Aceh in focused on outreach, building the network, researching technologies, Indonesia and U.S. operating centers, the USS Abraham Lincoln, and refining analytical models. The environmental testing on the shel- the USS Bonhomme Richard, and the airfield at Medan on Sumatra. ters showed that they could withstand severe weather, but also

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Continues in https://guptaoption.com/texts/12-2.md (part 2 of 3).
End of [12] Defense Horizons 70, part 1 of 3. Its connections are at the top of this file; the map is https://guptaoption.com/llms.txt.